Finding leaks

[Oelgart]

I wanted to start a thread where I could discuss some of the hands
that come up that I think I'm leaking away some money: Here's the
first, I have no useable information about the table

Full Tilt Poker $10 + $1 Sit & Go No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/
t50 Blinds - 8 players
The Official [url=http://www.twoplustwo.com/]2+2[/url] Hand Converter
[url=http://www.deucescracked.com/?referrer=converter_2p2]Powered By
DeucesCracked.com[/url]

Hero (SB): t1640
[b]BB: t1375[/b]
UTG: t2525
UTG+1: t163
[b]MP1: t1835[/b]
MP2: t1547
CO: t975
BTN: t1715

[b]Pre Flop:[/b] (t75) Hero is SB with 6:diamond: 6:club:
[i]2 folds[/i], MP1 calls t50, [color=red]MP2 raises to t150[/color],
[i]2 folds[/i], Hero calls t125, BB calls t100, MP1 calls t100

The call I make seems bad here, so here are some questions. How deep
would we have to be to make calling in this position acceptable, if
ever? Do I fold and move along? Would a push with no idea about his
calling range be profitable? How would any of this change if I had
66,77,88,99,1010 or jj?

[dinkydoofus]

Hey oelgart, I discuss this particualr subject at great length in my
blog, I will copy and paste the text from there into this post, but
you should check out the blog anyway, it might have some useful answer
to questions you havent thought of asking yet :) Oh and for some
reason the hand converter you used made the hand come out funky in the
post, maybe it would be easier to just post the hand history raw until
we fix the glitch. heres the post :

if youve played enough poker and can understand what I mean by
overplaying small and middle pocket pairs (SMPP's) Often you are the
aggressor or the flop comes below your pocket pair, sometimes you have
a flush or a straight draw, sometimes both. Regardless of these
factors the only two factors that you should consider IMMEDIATELY
after being dealt SMPP is A)your chip stack relative to the blinds B)
if there is a raise, what proportion of your stack is equal to the
raise you have to call to see the flop (1/2, 1/10, 1/100... etc). If
there is no B) consider only A). Dan Harrington writes in his second
volume on tournament strategy, that the number of chips one should
have if one is calling a bet/raise preflop should be AT LEAST 20 times
the bet (When I say your stack, I mean EFFECTIVE STACK meaning that if
you have 20bbs and your oppenent has 12bbs his stack is the effective
stack beacuse thats as much as you can make regardless of your chip
situation). That means that if the blinds are 200/400 and you have
6400 in chips you need about 1600 more chips to justify your MERE CALL
of the blinds preflop with a hand like 88 in early position. Now you
might say to me, hey I've seen you play you don't fold pocket pairs
when you have less than 20 times the preflop bet! And you're right I
do often play SMPP's on <20bb stacks but I'm usually going all in with
them preflop in an attemp to take down the blinds. I WOULD NEVER LIMP
to try to catch a set with less than a 20BB stack. I would also never
call a raise that would force me to commit more than 1/20th of my
stack in the hopes of catching a set. One might say that this is way
too tight and that im not maximizing the value of my small sets by
either going all in preflop or folding, and yes I guess this is true,
but there are only maybe 2 hands I would play for value (AA,KK) when I
have less than 20BBs. The fact of the matter is that once you have
reached this pitiful level in the tournament, you're not even playing
poker anymore, you're playing a game of intimidation and that has its
own rules and strategy. As for getting back to our subject on SMPP's,
it is a widely known fact that the odds of catching a set are
approximately 1:8 and this is often misinterpreted as the ratio of
chips one should have in their stack relative to amount one has to
call to see the flop for set odds. NOT SO! For one you not going to
get paid 100% of the time you catch your set, secondly you might wind
up with the 2nd best hand anyway even after you hit your set and this
will most likely lose you your whole stack. Another issue to consider
is whether or not you are closing the action preflop, because if you
aren't you can never be sure that the bet you are calling now will not
be raised and invalidate the ratio. Now although it is true that a lot
of times when you are playing a SMPP you will be up against two
overcards, and technically you are ahead of those hands preflop by a
couple of percent. However, there is approx a 50% chance of a queen
king or an ace falling on the flop a 50%+ chance of a ten, queen, king
or ace, 55%+ of a 9,10,J,K or A on the flop and so on. Basically most
of the time you play and SMPP you are going to have to play it on a
flop that contains overcards, which might or might not have hit your
opponent. Unless you are Stu Ungar you are going to have a hard time
accurately distinguishing when your opponent hit the flop, hit a draw,
or missed everything but is a stubborn donkey whos going to hit the
Ace on the river no matter what you do. Overall analysis: it is not a
good flop if it contains an overcard and theres is action from your
opponent. (As a side-note: I must say that some of the biggest pots
I've won were with SMPP's on overcard flops when I had a dead read on
the player, these are exceptions, and a s ageneral rule I fold to any
action on an overcard flop when I have a SMPP. Always follow your
reads first though)
Ok, so those flops are bad, which would lead you to believe that
flops containing all undercards are probable safe, right? Well
probably not if you read the story above, and this is what I would say
is the greatest single leak in regard to overplaying these dangerous
hands. These flops appear safe and they sometimes are, the only
problem is, when they're safe you win a small pot, when they're not
you usually lose a big one. What I mean by this is, lets say you have
our favorite hockey sticks, you're in the HJ and you raise 3x on a
60bb stack, the SB a tricky, good player on a smilar stack, flat
calls, the flop comes down 653x giving you an overpair and a gutshot
to what you have to assume would be the nuts, plus you also have 2
outs for a set (that would make a straight but give you a redraw, if
it was on the turn.... etc) the SB checks to you and you bet the
standard 55%, and you get raised 2.5 x your bet giving you about
3.25:1 odds. This is where most people make the mistake of either
calling or reraising (all in or not). This is still a mistake even if
the player is not so tricky, and you didnt raise preflop, or he led
out into you on the flop. What you HAVE TO consider is what his hand
could be or how it could've been improved, or threatened by that flop
so that he would put you to a decision. Most of the time you will come
to the realization that you are probably beat. If you raised preflop
and got called you have to assume that the caller either called you
with Ax or a PP (the possibilities of course much wider than this and
you should use your information on a player to ascertain his range of
hands, however the two aforementioned options are the most common
place amongst players of unknown tight/looseness). In this case as it
were with our 77 we would not really be much of a favorite against any
hand that would raise us on the flop on a board of 653x unless it was
specifically 44, A7 or a complete bluff (such as overcards, which by
the way still have around a 30% chance of drawing out on you on the
turn and the river). The hands that you are going to get action from
on that flop will usually be pocket pairs either below or above your
77 and you are losing to all but 2 of the 13 pocket pairs ever made.
After some consideration it should be apparent that these "safe" flops
aren't if you are getting any sort of action from an opponent and so
one should ask, what the hell AM I really looking for with a SMPP? the
answer is fairly obvious: a Set! I cannot begin to tell you how much
middle ground you place youself in if you begin/continue to play
SMPP's on flops where you haven't caught a set and you committed less
than 5% of your stack to the pot preflop (meaning you were in the hand
to catch a set, not to play the value of your hand, as I mentioned
before, this post applies to SMPP's on stacks of over 20BBs or 20x the
preflop raise). Yes if you follow this advice to a T you will
invariably wind up folding the best hand some of the time, but most of
the time you will be making the correct decision based on ranges,
stack sizes and the odds the pot will be giving you.
I feel as if I should wrap this up with a disclaimer, there is
an age old adage about poker questions, it says that the answer always
begins with the words, IT DEPENDS, I want you to memorize this,
because every situation you will encounter will be unique and will
require a unique course of action, after 100,000's of hands you might
find yourself in the same "unique" situation several times and you
will instinctively know what to do because you've already been there
before. Until that time I highly suggest you follow the guidelines
that dictate a more tight/conservative approach. While you are playing
in this mode I want you to observe every hand you are not involved in
to tyr to narrow down your opponents ranges to as few hands as
possible. Once this becomes routine for you, you should be able to
open up your game and turn some marginal spots into clear cut +EV
situations. One example: You're dealt 99 on the button, everyone folds
you make it 2.5x on a 40BB stack (sure its not 1/20th but you're not
exactly set mining, you have the 5th best hand in the best position).
The SB folds and the BB calls. You have a read on the BB, you know he
is aggressive and a little on the loose side and would rerasie you
with any pair/A8+ but call you with any two high cards or an ace. The
flop comes down A82x and he checks. Now before you fire out a CBet,
pause and use your read, you know he's loose aggressive so his range
is pretty wide, however you can take the pairs out of the equation and
only concern yourself with two highcards or an ace. The fact that he
checked the flop suggests that he did not hit the ace (if the flop has
a flush draw on it it is even more reason to suspect he does not have
an ace, a lot of people find it very difficult to check top pair on a
flop that contains a flush draw, even heads up) so if you bet now he
will either most likely fold, or checkraise you in the case that he
either caught 2 pair or decided to slowplay an ace. In this situation
I would check about 90% of the time in an attempt to induce a call on
a turn that I deem safe for me. If the turn pairs the board, I will
usually have a much easier time getting action, because if the board
didnt improve then theoritcally neither did my hand, since I did not
Cbet the flop. If the turn falls a safe card that does not pair the
board such as 3-7 I will bet if checked to and call/raise based on my
read if bet into. Opportunities such as this are rare but I felt I
needed to mention a scenario such as this to demonstrate the fact that
although I am a preacher and practioner of very tight/conservative
SMPP play, there are times when all of that goes out of the window and
your position, read, stack and flop texture will determine your
action, not your cards. "

I hope this helps,

Dinky