Dinkydoofus's Blog
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dinkydoofus
Aug 17, 2008, 3:15:08 AM8/17/08
to Lucky Genius
Hi all and welcome to our site, for those who don't know me my name is
Alek and I go under the name dinkydoofus on Full Tilt Poker and as
krasark on PokerStars. I've been playing pro for almost a year now and
I've been a winning player throughout that time, but it is only in the
last 3 months that my game has been really taken to the next level,
largely in part to the software that we developed here at Lucky
Genius. Having played 6000+ tournaments I knew exactly what I wanted
from a poker tool and with that in mind we've developed one of the
best poker software tools ever. While I played for 7 months and made
10k without this program it only took me 2.5 months to win nearly 30k
with it! Not only that, but I was also 1st on the Full Tilt Tournament
Leaderboard for two consecutive months and I'm in the top 10 for
August 2008!!!
With this great success I believe that everyone has a right to utilize
the information that is available to them. Yes you can play 2 tables
at once and have a fairly good idea of whats going on at the table,
but what if you have 4, or 6 or 8 or even 12 or more tables as I often
do...? Obviously you're giving up a little % of your edge with every
additional table you have running. But what if it didnt have to be
that way? What if you could play 12+ tables at once (depending on your
monitor situation :o) and be more knowledgeable about every player at
your table than if you had been single-tabling?
Poker sevant has the capability to deliver the information that will
make the difference in your decisions and positively affect your
bankroll. I highly suggest for any player who takes the game seriously
to give this program a shot and see what it can do for your game in a
relatively short time span.
I will be posting more in the future, let me know if there is
something in particular that somebody wants me to discuss.
Peace, Good Luck, Double Up, TID
Alek and I go under the name dinkydoofus on Full Tilt Poker and as
krasark on PokerStars. I've been playing pro for almost a year now and
I've been a winning player throughout that time, but it is only in the
last 3 months that my game has been really taken to the next level,
largely in part to the software that we developed here at Lucky
Genius. Having played 6000+ tournaments I knew exactly what I wanted
from a poker tool and with that in mind we've developed one of the
best poker software tools ever. While I played for 7 months and made
10k without this program it only took me 2.5 months to win nearly 30k
with it! Not only that, but I was also 1st on the Full Tilt Tournament
Leaderboard for two consecutive months and I'm in the top 10 for
August 2008!!!
With this great success I believe that everyone has a right to utilize
the information that is available to them. Yes you can play 2 tables
at once and have a fairly good idea of whats going on at the table,
but what if you have 4, or 6 or 8 or even 12 or more tables as I often
do...? Obviously you're giving up a little % of your edge with every
additional table you have running. But what if it didnt have to be
that way? What if you could play 12+ tables at once (depending on your
monitor situation :o) and be more knowledgeable about every player at
your table than if you had been single-tabling?
Poker sevant has the capability to deliver the information that will
make the difference in your decisions and positively affect your
bankroll. I highly suggest for any player who takes the game seriously
to give this program a shot and see what it can do for your game in a
relatively short time span.
I will be posting more in the future, let me know if there is
something in particular that somebody wants me to discuss.
Peace, Good Luck, Double Up, TID
dinkydoofus
Aug 18, 2008, 11:52:40 PM8/18/08
to Lucky Genius
Hi all, just wrapped up another session, +600ish for the day. I won a
seat to the 1k monday tournament on Full Tilt but didn't feel like
playing it for some reason. Yesterday was a good day, although I didnt
get deep in any of the big buy-in tournaments I did manage to take 3rd
in the 32k on Full Tilt for $3910, which was a nice way to pull out of
the red and into the black for the weekend. Overall this has
definitely been my best month so far and if i can keep this up I'll
have a tough time having a better one.
Aside from bragging (a little) I also wanted to dicuss something which
is central to my game and has greatly added to my edge. It's not a
secret or a program, and its quite simple actually. TAKE NOTES!!! Take
notes on people that are playing at your table, color code them based
on their succes/failure and this way when you are considering signing
up to a tournament you will be able to get a good idea of the kind of
field of players that you are going to be going up against. Now I know
that there are over 600,000 registered FUll Tilt poker players that
play tournaments and to get a note on every one of them is impossible,
however if you get into the habit of practicing this very simple
routine it will tremendously benefit you in the long run.
I will give you an example of what I mean: Since I've started playing
a year ago, I've been running stats on a good number of people I've
played against (prob around 20%) if a player is terrible I mark them
green (green because it is the default color and most players are bad
so it is time consuming to have to change to a diff. color for most
ppl) if theyre break-even they get marked as yellow, winners start
taking on redder shades and the purple sticker is reserved for 100k+
winners. When I have an observation that I type into the note I mark
it either cyan or deep blue. I mark a player cyan if I have an
observational note on a poor player and I tag deep blue for good
players. As a result of this habit I frequently can tell which multi
table sit-n-go is worth registering for and which isn't, for me this
is very crucial as these sit=n-go's make up approx 75% of the games I
play. If I see a 45 man tourney with 3 purples 4 reds and 1 green I
will most likely be skipping it. I recommend you do too. Oh and BTW it
doesnt hurt if you get moved to a new table and have notes on 3-4
people before you're even dealt a hand.
REMEMBER: Poker is a game of incomplete information, he who gets most
information, WINS!
Till next time,
Peace, Good Luck, Double Up, TID
seat to the 1k monday tournament on Full Tilt but didn't feel like
playing it for some reason. Yesterday was a good day, although I didnt
get deep in any of the big buy-in tournaments I did manage to take 3rd
in the 32k on Full Tilt for $3910, which was a nice way to pull out of
the red and into the black for the weekend. Overall this has
definitely been my best month so far and if i can keep this up I'll
have a tough time having a better one.
Aside from bragging (a little) I also wanted to dicuss something which
is central to my game and has greatly added to my edge. It's not a
secret or a program, and its quite simple actually. TAKE NOTES!!! Take
notes on people that are playing at your table, color code them based
on their succes/failure and this way when you are considering signing
up to a tournament you will be able to get a good idea of the kind of
field of players that you are going to be going up against. Now I know
that there are over 600,000 registered FUll Tilt poker players that
play tournaments and to get a note on every one of them is impossible,
however if you get into the habit of practicing this very simple
routine it will tremendously benefit you in the long run.
I will give you an example of what I mean: Since I've started playing
a year ago, I've been running stats on a good number of people I've
played against (prob around 20%) if a player is terrible I mark them
green (green because it is the default color and most players are bad
so it is time consuming to have to change to a diff. color for most
ppl) if theyre break-even they get marked as yellow, winners start
taking on redder shades and the purple sticker is reserved for 100k+
winners. When I have an observation that I type into the note I mark
it either cyan or deep blue. I mark a player cyan if I have an
observational note on a poor player and I tag deep blue for good
players. As a result of this habit I frequently can tell which multi
table sit-n-go is worth registering for and which isn't, for me this
is very crucial as these sit=n-go's make up approx 75% of the games I
play. If I see a 45 man tourney with 3 purples 4 reds and 1 green I
will most likely be skipping it. I recommend you do too. Oh and BTW it
doesnt hurt if you get moved to a new table and have notes on 3-4
people before you're even dealt a hand.
REMEMBER: Poker is a game of incomplete information, he who gets most
information, WINS!
Till next time,
Peace, Good Luck, Double Up, TID
dinkydoofus
Aug 22, 2008, 3:57:37 AM8/22/08
to Lucky Genius
Hi all, well today was a nice day, I got 2nd in both the 13.5k guar.
$50+R on Full Tilt and also the 40k guar. $163 for a combined score of
~13k. This is definitely the hottest streak I've ever been on, and as
much as I'd like to continue it by playing everyday, I'm going to have
to leave poker and the rest of civilization for a little while
(including this blog :o( while i go out to the Burning Man festival in
Nevada. I'll be back after Labor Day weekend, so if you have any
questions for me, just post them here and I'll answer them when I
return.
I wanted to briefly address one issue before i left; and that is the
advantage of multi-tabling. I was just hanging out with a buddy of
minewho's been playing regularly online for about a year. He usually
plays 2 or 3 tables of either sit-n-go's, mtt's or a cash game or a
combination. His results are mediocre and although he is a profitable
player he never had a big score. I attribute part of his problem to
the fact that he is only playing 3 tables maximum often of different
variety and as a result has less than desired results. Success,
whether in poker or anything else stems from your ability to extract
the maximum value out of a certain situation. When you're playing 3
tables and have ample time between hands and space on your monitor,
you are not maximizing your returns.
Look at it this way, if your ROI is 20% @ $50 SnG's then that means
that for every dollar you invest you expect to get back $1.20,
wouldn't it make sense to invest as much as possible considering the
fact that you are investing the same amount of time whether playing 3
or 9 tables?
Granted every table will take a little % of ROI as your decisions
become more mechanical and your reads on the table become weaker,
however this is easily outweighed by the fact that you are playing 2-4
times as many hands. And as I probably not need to mention you can
reduce the edge you give up by running a tool such as our Poker Savant
while playing.
Well, I gotta pack and head out,
> > Peace, Good Luck, Double Up, TID- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
$50+R on Full Tilt and also the 40k guar. $163 for a combined score of
~13k. This is definitely the hottest streak I've ever been on, and as
much as I'd like to continue it by playing everyday, I'm going to have
to leave poker and the rest of civilization for a little while
(including this blog :o( while i go out to the Burning Man festival in
Nevada. I'll be back after Labor Day weekend, so if you have any
questions for me, just post them here and I'll answer them when I
return.
I wanted to briefly address one issue before i left; and that is the
advantage of multi-tabling. I was just hanging out with a buddy of
minewho's been playing regularly online for about a year. He usually
plays 2 or 3 tables of either sit-n-go's, mtt's or a cash game or a
combination. His results are mediocre and although he is a profitable
player he never had a big score. I attribute part of his problem to
the fact that he is only playing 3 tables maximum often of different
variety and as a result has less than desired results. Success,
whether in poker or anything else stems from your ability to extract
the maximum value out of a certain situation. When you're playing 3
tables and have ample time between hands and space on your monitor,
you are not maximizing your returns.
Look at it this way, if your ROI is 20% @ $50 SnG's then that means
that for every dollar you invest you expect to get back $1.20,
wouldn't it make sense to invest as much as possible considering the
fact that you are investing the same amount of time whether playing 3
or 9 tables?
Granted every table will take a little % of ROI as your decisions
become more mechanical and your reads on the table become weaker,
however this is easily outweighed by the fact that you are playing 2-4
times as many hands. And as I probably not need to mention you can
reduce the edge you give up by running a tool such as our Poker Savant
while playing.
Well, I gotta pack and head out,
Peace, Good Luck, Double Up, TID
>
> - Show quoted text -
Message has been deleted
dinkydoofus
Sep 3, 2008, 3:29:27 AM9/3/08
to Lucky Genius
Hi all, It's been a while since i touched a keyboard, feels a little
weird after camping out in the desert for a week. I hope i still
remember how to play poker :o) I have to say that Burning Man is by
far the craziest thing in the world I have ever been a part of, this
years theme was " American Dream " , and everything about the
festival
was just too much for my ESL skills to accurately/adequately
describe... you can go here to check out fotos/info about Burning Man
2008 -----------------------> http://www.burningman.com/ and
then clicking on the What is Burning Man? link at the top of the
page.
Definitely worth checking out if you're alive.
I made my way out there via San Francisco and I spent<$1000 on the
whole trip incl; airfare, rental car, food supplies, camping
supplies,
tickets (@$300 when they can be bought for $150 @ 6 months in
advance)
etc., God-willing I will be able to go again next year, so if anyone
is or becomes interested in going as a bigger group let me know here
or by emailing me
I was hoping to play some tournaments tomorrow but I don't know if
thats going to pan out, I have to pack for Vegas and hang out with my
girlfriend so poker might have to wait (I have my priorities all
f***ed up, I know :o) I shouldn't have a problem answering questions
out of Sin City so post it if you got it,
till next time,
Dinky
> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
weird after camping out in the desert for a week. I hope i still
remember how to play poker :o) I have to say that Burning Man is by
far the craziest thing in the world I have ever been a part of, this
years theme was " American Dream " , and everything about the
festival
was just too much for my ESL skills to accurately/adequately
describe... you can go here to check out fotos/info about Burning Man
2008 -----------------------> http://www.burningman.com/ and
then clicking on the What is Burning Man? link at the top of the
page.
Definitely worth checking out if you're alive.
I made my way out there via San Francisco and I spent<$1000 on the
whole trip incl; airfare, rental car, food supplies, camping
supplies,
tickets (@$300 when they can be bought for $150 @ 6 months in
advance)
etc., God-willing I will be able to go again next year, so if anyone
is or becomes interested in going as a bigger group let me know here
or by emailing me
I was hoping to play some tournaments tomorrow but I don't know if
thats going to pan out, I have to pack for Vegas and hang out with my
girlfriend so poker might have to wait (I have my priorities all
f***ed up, I know :o) I shouldn't have a problem answering questions
out of Sin City so post it if you got it,
till next time,
Dinky
Peace, Good Luck, Double Up, TID
dinkydoofus
Sep 4, 2008, 12:33:25 PM9/4/08
to Lucky Genius
Hello all, We'll I'm packed and ready to leave my house for Sin City,
I'll be out there for 5 days learning how to play from The Yid aka The
Maven/BodogMaven, because I apparently don't know how to play :o) In
all seriousness he's a baller and hopefully he can help me find and
plug the holes I have in my MTT play. This is where I think I'm going
to concentrate the majority of my efforts for the next year, possibly
longer. I've been doing quite well at SNG's but I think I've just
about reached the limit. I'm rated 4th on sharkscope for the SNG's I
play (>3 tables $16-35 Buy-In) and the #1 guy Rounder63 aka The Mad
Feaster has about 2x my profit. This is certainly something however
the #1 guy in MTT's has 30x my profit so I think this will be a
valuable lesson on my behalf.
I don't know how much playing I will get accomplished out there, I
think I will mostly be observing however I will definitely be on this
forum, so if you want to contact me, post or send an e-mail,
Dinky
Peace, Good Luck, Double Up, TID
I'll be out there for 5 days learning how to play from The Yid aka The
Maven/BodogMaven, because I apparently don't know how to play :o) In
all seriousness he's a baller and hopefully he can help me find and
plug the holes I have in my MTT play. This is where I think I'm going
to concentrate the majority of my efforts for the next year, possibly
longer. I've been doing quite well at SNG's but I think I've just
about reached the limit. I'm rated 4th on sharkscope for the SNG's I
play (>3 tables $16-35 Buy-In) and the #1 guy Rounder63 aka The Mad
Feaster has about 2x my profit. This is certainly something however
the #1 guy in MTT's has 30x my profit so I think this will be a
valuable lesson on my behalf.
I don't know how much playing I will get accomplished out there, I
think I will mostly be observing however I will definitely be on this
forum, so if you want to contact me, post or send an e-mail,
Dinky
Peace, Good Luck, Double Up, TID
Message has been deleted
dinkydoofus
Sep 12, 2008, 12:52:17 AM9/12/08
to Lucky Genius
Hey all, it's been a while since I posted in this section. I am
currently working on another website, to which I will migrate this
blog, I'll have more on that soon. Aside from that after many trials I
have come to the conclusion that as of now Poker Savant is limited to
keeping track of 4-5 tables. This problem will be corrected shortly
but just keep that in mind if you're running our software. I will also
try to improve the graphic effects, as soon as the new version hits
the site, make sure to download it and overwrite the previous version.
We are also working on a demo video showing the capabilities of our
program more on that as it develops.
Yesterday was the first day I got to play at my standard pace, as I
didn';t play in Vegas the entire time I was there, I mostly watched
and tried to polish my game as The Yid, Browndog19, I am Ari and
sketchy1 took down >100k on Sunday combined. I have to say they are
very serious and very capable players and get much respect for their
game. I also have to give them thanks for letting me study with them,
they truly are top-notch. All in all I think it was a very good trip
and I cant wait to apply the tactics I learned there on an everyday
basis. I'f you'd like to train with them get in touch with me and I'll
see if I can set it up.
Til next time,
Dinky
> ...
>
> read more »- Hide quoted text -
currently working on another website, to which I will migrate this
blog, I'll have more on that soon. Aside from that after many trials I
have come to the conclusion that as of now Poker Savant is limited to
keeping track of 4-5 tables. This problem will be corrected shortly
but just keep that in mind if you're running our software. I will also
try to improve the graphic effects, as soon as the new version hits
the site, make sure to download it and overwrite the previous version.
We are also working on a demo video showing the capabilities of our
program more on that as it develops.
Yesterday was the first day I got to play at my standard pace, as I
didn';t play in Vegas the entire time I was there, I mostly watched
and tried to polish my game as The Yid, Browndog19, I am Ari and
sketchy1 took down >100k on Sunday combined. I have to say they are
very serious and very capable players and get much respect for their
game. I also have to give them thanks for letting me study with them,
they truly are top-notch. All in all I think it was a very good trip
and I cant wait to apply the tactics I learned there on an everyday
basis. I'f you'd like to train with them get in touch with me and I'll
see if I can set it up.
Til next time,
Dinky
>
> read more »- Hide quoted text -
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Message has been deleted
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dinkydoofus
Sep 27, 2008, 10:08:27 PM9/27/08
to Lucky Genius
Hi all its been a really long time since I've posted here but I've
been real busy as of lately. Just started my umpteenth year in
college, trying to get my bachelor's, I wouldn;t even go but I'm 90%
done and I keep getting bills for student loans every month, and I
wouldnt be able to live with myself if I had no nice diploma to cover
up some of the holes I've punched into my walls as a result of
unfortunate river cards. At least I've relaxed in that respect. I must
admit I have been mastering my temper a lot better lately, the mouse
which I am using now has been already in employement for 1.5+months
which I believe is a new record. I do not exaggerate when I say I'm
probably down $300 for life on mice from Microsoft. I used to break
them on a (bi)weekly basis, the worst being when I had broken a mouse
a day after I had bought it and had to exchange because it was
"defective" lol....
Anyways, I've only been able to play prob ~6-7 days this month at my
full capacity and I'm a little dissapointed by that and although this
is a profitable month for me, it feels as if I'm not maximizing my
potential. This entirely a time issue as I see it now and as soon as I
settle certain things which are outside the scope of this post, I will
definitely commit at least four 8+ hour days to poker. I'm also trying
to keep my gold-star status on sharkscope, but so are the other top
players, so it is an everchanging leaderboard. My aim is to finish at
least 3rd on any leaderboard on sharkscope.com (btw, if you don't know
about this website, now you do) at the end of the year. I would also
like at least one more #1 finish on Full Tilt's TLB and to this I plan
on dedicating much of oct-nov so I'll be on as many tables as I can
muster. Speaking of which yest I just got my new 24" so now I can real
pwn...
Anyways I just had my 6th table start up, so Imma go,
been real busy as of lately. Just started my umpteenth year in
college, trying to get my bachelor's, I wouldn;t even go but I'm 90%
done and I keep getting bills for student loans every month, and I
wouldnt be able to live with myself if I had no nice diploma to cover
up some of the holes I've punched into my walls as a result of
unfortunate river cards. At least I've relaxed in that respect. I must
admit I have been mastering my temper a lot better lately, the mouse
which I am using now has been already in employement for 1.5+months
which I believe is a new record. I do not exaggerate when I say I'm
probably down $300 for life on mice from Microsoft. I used to break
them on a (bi)weekly basis, the worst being when I had broken a mouse
a day after I had bought it and had to exchange because it was
"defective" lol....
Anyways, I've only been able to play prob ~6-7 days this month at my
full capacity and I'm a little dissapointed by that and although this
is a profitable month for me, it feels as if I'm not maximizing my
potential. This entirely a time issue as I see it now and as soon as I
settle certain things which are outside the scope of this post, I will
definitely commit at least four 8+ hour days to poker. I'm also trying
to keep my gold-star status on sharkscope, but so are the other top
players, so it is an everchanging leaderboard. My aim is to finish at
least 3rd on any leaderboard on sharkscope.com (btw, if you don't know
about this website, now you do) at the end of the year. I would also
like at least one more #1 finish on Full Tilt's TLB and to this I plan
on dedicating much of oct-nov so I'll be on as many tables as I can
muster. Speaking of which yest I just got my new 24" so now I can real
pwn...
Anyways I just had my 6th table start up, so Imma go,
Peace, Good Luck, Double Up, TID
Dinky
dinkydoofus
Oct 5, 2008, 4:30:51 AM10/5/08
to Lucky Genius
Hey all its been a while since I posted and since then my bankroll has
gone through some tumultuous swings. The day after I last posted I
went to the regular house game I usually go to twice a week. Now I'm
not great at cash but I usually do alright for myself in that game and
I would say that up til that day I was even. Obviously it wouldnt be a
story if I didnt get beat pretty sick a couple of times then played
like a jackass for a couple of hours and wound up losing about 1k...
so much for cleaning up. Well the next wise decision came to me in the
form of a trip to Atlantic City where every Wednesday the Borgata
hosts a $20k guarantee tourney with a $120 buy-in. Juicy.
10k starting chips 20 min rounds 25-50 1st level... by first break
(1hr) I have 15k by 2nd break 25k by 3rd break ~35k I come back from
the 3rd break and I'm at a new table that I was moved to about 10 mins
before the break. My first hand I'm in the Big Blind having posted
1600 and a 100 ante. The cutoff limps, the small blind completes and I
look down and see AsQs. I raise it to 4800 and everyone folds. The
cutoff takes his time and I muck my hand face up. Now the cutoff was
the only person at the table whose hand I saw played til the showdown
so far. He limped in UTG w K9x and he raised w 66 in LM pos. I had him
on loose-aggro pre and very trappable postflop. So the very next hand
it folds to this guy who limps again and I look down and see 44, I
make it 5000 even, BB folds and the villain takes about all of 10
seconds to declare all in. I swear I beat him into the pot. Needless
to say he flops the nuts with AJx (F*CK, how does he LIMP with
that?!)...
Now I know that his was a fundamental mistake on my behalf seeing as
how the book says that I was at best getting into a coinflip against a
weaker player with whom I should avoid coinflip situations in favor of
either outplaying him or getting it in later on when I'm dominating
him. BUT... but I KNEW i had the best hand. I mean he limps w K9x UTG
and he raises 66 in LM pos which is what he's in now. So when he limps
I dont give him a pair, I give him napkins, but when he moves all in
after my raise I'm obv not up against a random hand anymore but I
still know I'm ahead, at worst I'm like 50% (vs QsJs) and at best like
84% (vs 33,22 which is possible given that I showed AQ when i raised
last hand). Given these odds I have to call because all of a sudden
there is my 5k plus his 5k plus the 1.6k BB plus the 900 in antes and
I have 30k behind looking at 3:4 on my money which justified even the
worst scenario (higher PP excluded for the same reason I'm excluding
A2 & A3 combinations which cancel each other out if we assume the only
PP's he's limping with that are beating me are 55-88). Greg Raymer has
said that any player who knowingly folds a hand that he is 100%
certain is at least 51% to win is not pro material. Now obviously
there are exceptions such as in satellites or when you have a sick
read or something, but in general this rule is true. The other reason
pushing for my call was that the tournament was down to about 110
players out of 340 and I had just about the average, if I had won this
pot I would have the chip leader at my table and unless terrible
things happened as they usually do I would have probably made it very
deep in this tournament. Perhaps I was too aggro, pehaps I was
justified, I would like to hear your opinions about this hand, so if
you can, go to the poll widget and vote on how you would play this
hand in my situation.
After walking the walk of shame to the ATM I'm back to bleeding about
$75/hr at a 1-2 NL cash game waiting for my ride to finish playing the
tournament. After 4 more hours of him playing and cashing for a grand
profit of $134 (now Im not knocking him, he did do better than me and
so far he's cashed 4/5 times that we've went, but so far every time it
has been no deeper than the 1st table after the bubble... just means
he's overdue is all i guess) I decide to play a $100 worth of
blackjack, that session lasts all of 15 minutes after which I decide
that life is rigged.
We come back just in time for me to take my Economic Statistics exam,
I walk out of there in 15 minutes feeling like I took the test twice
during that brief session of blackjack. This particular branch of math/
economics is particularly interesting to me. Game theory especially is
something I'd want to learn more about in the near future. Anyways....
This was thursday, friday I put in a really decent day of poker by
getting my biggest cash so far when I took 2nd place in the $163 buy-
in 50k guarantee for ~$9400... Not a bad way to erase the woes of
Atlantic City... Im going back Monday night... lol
ON not so funny news, my Full Tilt Chat is revoked until Oct. 29. So
if you try to talk to me and all you get is silence, dont take it
personally. I called someone a primate fornicator and they told me
that they would report me, so i told them trip and choke on a rooster
on the way to reporting booth, which I guess they failed to do... oh
well.
Well I'm signing off, till next time
Dinky
gone through some tumultuous swings. The day after I last posted I
went to the regular house game I usually go to twice a week. Now I'm
not great at cash but I usually do alright for myself in that game and
I would say that up til that day I was even. Obviously it wouldnt be a
story if I didnt get beat pretty sick a couple of times then played
like a jackass for a couple of hours and wound up losing about 1k...
so much for cleaning up. Well the next wise decision came to me in the
form of a trip to Atlantic City where every Wednesday the Borgata
hosts a $20k guarantee tourney with a $120 buy-in. Juicy.
10k starting chips 20 min rounds 25-50 1st level... by first break
(1hr) I have 15k by 2nd break 25k by 3rd break ~35k I come back from
the 3rd break and I'm at a new table that I was moved to about 10 mins
before the break. My first hand I'm in the Big Blind having posted
1600 and a 100 ante. The cutoff limps, the small blind completes and I
look down and see AsQs. I raise it to 4800 and everyone folds. The
cutoff takes his time and I muck my hand face up. Now the cutoff was
the only person at the table whose hand I saw played til the showdown
so far. He limped in UTG w K9x and he raised w 66 in LM pos. I had him
on loose-aggro pre and very trappable postflop. So the very next hand
it folds to this guy who limps again and I look down and see 44, I
make it 5000 even, BB folds and the villain takes about all of 10
seconds to declare all in. I swear I beat him into the pot. Needless
to say he flops the nuts with AJx (F*CK, how does he LIMP with
that?!)...
Now I know that his was a fundamental mistake on my behalf seeing as
how the book says that I was at best getting into a coinflip against a
weaker player with whom I should avoid coinflip situations in favor of
either outplaying him or getting it in later on when I'm dominating
him. BUT... but I KNEW i had the best hand. I mean he limps w K9x UTG
and he raises 66 in LM pos which is what he's in now. So when he limps
I dont give him a pair, I give him napkins, but when he moves all in
after my raise I'm obv not up against a random hand anymore but I
still know I'm ahead, at worst I'm like 50% (vs QsJs) and at best like
84% (vs 33,22 which is possible given that I showed AQ when i raised
last hand). Given these odds I have to call because all of a sudden
there is my 5k plus his 5k plus the 1.6k BB plus the 900 in antes and
I have 30k behind looking at 3:4 on my money which justified even the
worst scenario (higher PP excluded for the same reason I'm excluding
A2 & A3 combinations which cancel each other out if we assume the only
PP's he's limping with that are beating me are 55-88). Greg Raymer has
said that any player who knowingly folds a hand that he is 100%
certain is at least 51% to win is not pro material. Now obviously
there are exceptions such as in satellites or when you have a sick
read or something, but in general this rule is true. The other reason
pushing for my call was that the tournament was down to about 110
players out of 340 and I had just about the average, if I had won this
pot I would have the chip leader at my table and unless terrible
things happened as they usually do I would have probably made it very
deep in this tournament. Perhaps I was too aggro, pehaps I was
justified, I would like to hear your opinions about this hand, so if
you can, go to the poll widget and vote on how you would play this
hand in my situation.
After walking the walk of shame to the ATM I'm back to bleeding about
$75/hr at a 1-2 NL cash game waiting for my ride to finish playing the
tournament. After 4 more hours of him playing and cashing for a grand
profit of $134 (now Im not knocking him, he did do better than me and
so far he's cashed 4/5 times that we've went, but so far every time it
has been no deeper than the 1st table after the bubble... just means
he's overdue is all i guess) I decide to play a $100 worth of
blackjack, that session lasts all of 15 minutes after which I decide
that life is rigged.
We come back just in time for me to take my Economic Statistics exam,
I walk out of there in 15 minutes feeling like I took the test twice
during that brief session of blackjack. This particular branch of math/
economics is particularly interesting to me. Game theory especially is
something I'd want to learn more about in the near future. Anyways....
This was thursday, friday I put in a really decent day of poker by
getting my biggest cash so far when I took 2nd place in the $163 buy-
in 50k guarantee for ~$9400... Not a bad way to erase the woes of
Atlantic City... Im going back Monday night... lol
ON not so funny news, my Full Tilt Chat is revoked until Oct. 29. So
if you try to talk to me and all you get is silence, dont take it
personally. I called someone a primate fornicator and they told me
that they would report me, so i told them trip and choke on a rooster
on the way to reporting booth, which I guess they failed to do... oh
well.
Well I'm signing off, till next time
Dinky
pferdferd
Oct 10, 2008, 12:45:49 PM10/10/08
to Lucky Genius
Hey dinky,
So you just moved to the table and first hand take it down with the
"steal raise," you show so they know you play premiums, and next hand
pick up the small pair. I think you have to realize that while you
have obviously pegged the villain correctly, your raise is going to
put you in a tough spot 2 out of 3 times. The only time you're happy
is when he folds. He calls, and any 9-A puts you in c-bet hell, and
any push puts you in the situation you were in (you made the right
call, btw, once you put the raise in since you're playing to win and
not cash). wouldn't you rather not have to make those decisions
against a weaker player like him, though? I want to take hands in
position against him, or even better flop a 4 and let him stack off.
Also you're at 38k (ahead of the chip average) why put yourself in a
position to have to flip right now? (I'm sure you've seen enough guys
limp with big aces only to move on the guy who tries to "steal")
People make weird decisions about being "pushed around" and they
decide to "get you back." Don't give him the chance in that spot.
just my two cents
pferdferd
So you just moved to the table and first hand take it down with the
"steal raise," you show so they know you play premiums, and next hand
pick up the small pair. I think you have to realize that while you
have obviously pegged the villain correctly, your raise is going to
put you in a tough spot 2 out of 3 times. The only time you're happy
is when he folds. He calls, and any 9-A puts you in c-bet hell, and
any push puts you in the situation you were in (you made the right
call, btw, once you put the raise in since you're playing to win and
not cash). wouldn't you rather not have to make those decisions
against a weaker player like him, though? I want to take hands in
position against him, or even better flop a 4 and let him stack off.
Also you're at 38k (ahead of the chip average) why put yourself in a
position to have to flip right now? (I'm sure you've seen enough guys
limp with big aces only to move on the guy who tries to "steal")
People make weird decisions about being "pushed around" and they
decide to "get you back." Don't give him the chance in that spot.
just my two cents
pferdferd
dinkydoofus
Oct 11, 2008, 11:16:38 AM10/11/08
to Lucky Genius
I agree with your reasing everywhere except for one spot: I dont think
I'm going to be in a tough spot 2 of 3 times more like 1of 3 or 1 of 4
because I DO think that he will be folding most of the time and since
he's missing the flop 66% of the time with an unpaired hand I'm
usually going to have no prob on the flop. The part about him being a
weak player only makes me want to get it in more (not all in but to
the flop at least) because I can outplay him. The part about being
above avg w 38k... true fot the time being but not by much, do be
honest with you, once I'm <40-50bb's I'm seeking out these situations
rather than avoiding them
dinky
I'm going to be in a tough spot 2 of 3 times more like 1of 3 or 1 of 4
because I DO think that he will be folding most of the time and since
he's missing the flop 66% of the time with an unpaired hand I'm
usually going to have no prob on the flop. The part about him being a
weak player only makes me want to get it in more (not all in but to
the flop at least) because I can outplay him. The part about being
above avg w 38k... true fot the time being but not by much, do be
honest with you, once I'm <40-50bb's I'm seeking out these situations
rather than avoiding them
dinky
dinkydoofus
Oct 11, 2008, 11:59:22 AM10/11/08
to Lucky Genius
PS I just got skype yesterday so if you want to get in touch with me
on there now you can. My nickname is dinkydoofus on there as well.
> > pferdferd- Hide quoted text -
on there now you can. My nickname is dinkydoofus on there as well.
dinkydoofus
Oct 20, 2008, 5:12:29 PM10/20/08
to Lucky Genius
Hi all, its been a while since I've written here, however I have
written a pretty long post about my moral qualms with being a poker
player and various thoughts that stemmed from that dilemma in my head.
Aside from that I am currently on my worst run at poker EVER... ie
-1/2 of my bankroll and as a result I will have to drop down in stakes
and take a step a back. This is not a move that I prefer but rather
the only fail-save option I have and I better exercise it unless I
want to go broke. For me this means sticking to <50% buy ins until I
have at least returned to my previous bankroll level.
This kind of drop can be embarassing for some players and not even
flash through the minds of some others, and unless those players get
their shit together in a hurry or catch a lucky break, they will most
likely find themselveson the rail. I know because I have gone through
this process without adjusting before and found myself on the ropes. I
refuse to repeat my mistakes and degress. So if you see me playing
SnG's at an unprecedented rate, dont be too surprised... just wish me
some luck!!!
Dinkydoofus
> > - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
written a pretty long post about my moral qualms with being a poker
player and various thoughts that stemmed from that dilemma in my head.
Aside from that I am currently on my worst run at poker EVER... ie
-1/2 of my bankroll and as a result I will have to drop down in stakes
and take a step a back. This is not a move that I prefer but rather
the only fail-save option I have and I better exercise it unless I
want to go broke. For me this means sticking to <50% buy ins until I
have at least returned to my previous bankroll level.
This kind of drop can be embarassing for some players and not even
flash through the minds of some others, and unless those players get
their shit together in a hurry or catch a lucky break, they will most
likely find themselveson the rail. I know because I have gone through
this process without adjusting before and found myself on the ropes. I
refuse to repeat my mistakes and degress. So if you see me playing
SnG's at an unprecedented rate, dont be too surprised... just wish me
some luck!!!
Dinkydoofus
dinkydoofus
Oct 22, 2008, 4:50:17 AM10/22/08
to Lucky Genius
Hey all, I am happy to say that I have managed to climb out of the
hole I have dug myself into over the last 10 days by getting 3rd in
the 50/50 for approx 4500, I have to admit I got very lucky several
times, hitting a couple of 3 outers and even a 2outer!!! (after the
money was in) however I also took some bad beads along the way but I
never let that get to me, until it got down to the top three at
least... then I dunno i lost my cool as every decent hand was dealt
was either raised or reraised to the point where I knew I was 2nd
best. I kept folding away until I had 10bb and had to shove with Q2x
on the button, not exactly the strongest move but the only one I saw
available at the time, flopping trips didnt help me as the villain had
A2 crushed my kicker.
Despite the fact that I won most of the big hands by either bluffing
or drawing out, I have to say that I played very well because I stuck
to the basics and ony got caught when I stepped away from them. Its
amazing that even with all of this information available to poker
players (databses, software tools, books, blogs etc) playin more or
less straightforward poker will be rewarded in the long run. This does
not mean that you should be a nit, but it does mean that you should
have a battle plan established before the first chip hits felt (pixel
on pixel whatever...) Like they taught me in basic training, if you
find yourself in a fair fight, you probably didnt think it through
very well. This applies to poker as much as it does to combat, if your
advantage in this hand is your chips then use them, if its position,
use that, if its your cards or your image or the odds or whatever it
is, USE IT!!! But if you are about to put some chips into the pot and
you cant really find an advantage to your situation, then maybe you
should wait for a situation where you will have an advantage...
With those words I go to sleep a tired but happy man
Dinkydoofus
hole I have dug myself into over the last 10 days by getting 3rd in
the 50/50 for approx 4500, I have to admit I got very lucky several
times, hitting a couple of 3 outers and even a 2outer!!! (after the
money was in) however I also took some bad beads along the way but I
never let that get to me, until it got down to the top three at
least... then I dunno i lost my cool as every decent hand was dealt
was either raised or reraised to the point where I knew I was 2nd
best. I kept folding away until I had 10bb and had to shove with Q2x
on the button, not exactly the strongest move but the only one I saw
available at the time, flopping trips didnt help me as the villain had
A2 crushed my kicker.
Despite the fact that I won most of the big hands by either bluffing
or drawing out, I have to say that I played very well because I stuck
to the basics and ony got caught when I stepped away from them. Its
amazing that even with all of this information available to poker
players (databses, software tools, books, blogs etc) playin more or
less straightforward poker will be rewarded in the long run. This does
not mean that you should be a nit, but it does mean that you should
have a battle plan established before the first chip hits felt (pixel
on pixel whatever...) Like they taught me in basic training, if you
find yourself in a fair fight, you probably didnt think it through
very well. This applies to poker as much as it does to combat, if your
advantage in this hand is your chips then use them, if its position,
use that, if its your cards or your image or the odds or whatever it
is, USE IT!!! But if you are about to put some chips into the pot and
you cant really find an advantage to your situation, then maybe you
should wait for a situation where you will have an advantage...
With those words I go to sleep a tired but happy man
Dinkydoofus
dinkydoofus
Nov 9, 2008, 11:02:38 PM11/9/08
to Lucky Genius
Hey all, its been a mighty long time since I've posted here and I've
had an exciting two weeks! I scored my biggest score last week when I
chopped up the $70k Guar. on PokerStars for 11k once it got down to
three handed at the final table and I had hald of the chips in play.
Originally they were hesitant to agree but once the math was done they
realized they were getting a good deal and agreed. They both walked
away with $200 more than 2nd place and I got about 1500 less than 1st,
and although I would loved to have won that tournament I am still
very satisfied with the result. To cap off last week's success I (for
some unknown impulsive reason) downloaded and installed Cake Poker on
my PC on Sunday. It turned out to be a good move, I won the first 2
tournaments I played on there netting $5300. I must say the players on
Cake Poker are really terrible and theres no database that keeps track
of who's who on Cake as they do for the other big sites, so it makes
it much less appealing to the number grinding nits who cannot play a
hand without pokertrtacker or some other crutch. This isnt to belittle
the software (such as ours, which unfortunately also does not yet
support Cake poker) that really does provide an edge, but the results
speak for themselves, and I certainly attribute the caliber of play on
Cake poker to the fact that they do not support 3rd party data-mining
software, nor do they release their results for tournaments, and this
literally turns enough people away that actually would do fairly well
anyway, that it leaves a window of opportunity for anyone willing to
play by the seat of their pants (oh yeah theyre calling your 15bb
shove w K7s ALL DAY!!!) to make a killing. PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK!!! I
have found that Cake sofware is at time glitchy and the times for
tournaments can sometimes be off by an hour. WHat happened to me twice
was that I had registered for a tournament that was supposed to start
at say 18.00, the clock on the program reads 18.00 but no tournament
comes up, I check the lobby and I'm still registered but the
unregister button has dissappeared, I said sh*t this funky website
just made me lose $33. Well an hour later the tournament starts and
all is not lost, partially due to the fact that I wasnt planning on
leaving my "office" for the next 12 hours, but if you have a life or
some other engagement that day, I would stay away from Cake's
tournaments until after they've started and you can late reg. into
them.
Aside from this theres is one subject I want to cover in this post,
and that is pocket pairs 22-99 in any position. I have noticed that
overplaying these hands is (was) a huge leak in my game and is a huge
leak in the game of many of my opponents. I must say that I've been
playing poker since 2001 and in my earliest days I've had insights
into the game the values of which I have only recently begun to apply
to my game profitably. One such insigt was that pocket pairs provide
you with a false sense of security, I remember saying these words out
loud to a buddy of mine at a local card club one night after what must
have been a loss with a hand I can probably guess oh about 1 in 8
times. (22-99, if you're really high or slow) The next time i
specifically remember beating myself up over overplaying a medium
pocket pair was in the 750k of Full Tilt about a year ago. I lost the
hand when I had made a standard raise from UTG w 77 and got called by
the SB, the flop fell 6 high and I felt pretty good when he checked to
me so I fired a standard CBet for about 1/2+ the pot and got flat
called. The turn paired the board and I bet again (closer to 2/3 of
the pot this time) after being checked to, when the villain check-
raised me all-in I knew I was in bad shape but by that time I had put
close to 2/3 of my stack into the pot and I had an overpair with a
gutshot, and so I lost to AA. I'm sure you can recant a similar story
if youve played enough poker and can understand what I mean by
overplaying small and middle pocket pairs (SMPP's) Often you are the
aggressor or the flop comes below your pocket pair, sometimes you have
a flush or a straight draw, sometimes both. Regardless of these
factors the only two factors that you should consider IMMEDIATELY
after being dealt SMPP is A)your chip stack relative to the blinds
B)if there is a raise, what proportion of your stack is equal to the
raise you have to call to see the flop (1/2, 1/10, 1/100... etc). If
there is no B) consider only A). Dan Harrington writes in his second
volume on tournament strategy, that the number of chips one should
have if one is calling a bet/raise preflop should be AT LEAST 20 times
the bet. That means that if the blinds are 200/400 and you have 6400
in chips you need about 1600 more chips to justify your MERE CALL of
the blinds preflop with a hand like 88 in early position. Now you
might say to me, hey I've seen you play you don't fold pocket pairs
when you have less than 20 times the preflop bet! And you're right I'm
usually going all in with them preflop in an attemp to take down the
blinds. I WOULD NEVER LIMP to try to catch a set with less than a 20BB
stack. I would also never call a raise that would force me to commit
more than 1/20th of my stack in the hopes of catching a set. One might
say that this is way too tight and that im not maximizing the value of
my small sets by either going all in preflop or folding, and yes I
guess this is true, but there are only maybe 2 hands I would play for
value (AA,KK) when I have less than 20BBs. The fact of the matter is
that once you have reached this pitiful level in the tournament,
you're not even playing poker anymore, you're playing a game of
intimidation and that has its own rules and strategy. As for getting
back to our subject on SMPP's, it is a widely known fact that the odds
of catching a set are approximately 1:8 and this is often
misinterpreted as the ratio of chips one should have in their stack
relative to amount one has to call to see the flop for set odds. NOT
SO! For one you not going to get paid 100% of the time you catch your
set, secondly you might wind up with the 2nd best hand anyway even
after you hit your set and this will most likely lose you your whole
stack. Another issue to consider is whether or not you are closing the
action preflop, because if you aren't you can never be sure that the
bet you are calling now will not be raised and invalidate the ratio.
Now although it is true that a lot of times when you are playing a
SMPP you will be up against two overcards, and technically you are
ahead of those hands preflop by a couple of percent. However, there is
approx a 50% chance of a queen king or an ace falling on the flop a
50%+ chance of a ten, queen, king or ace, 55%+ of a 9,10,J,K or A on
the flop and so on. Basically most of the time you play and SMPP you
are going to have to play it on a flop that contains overcards, which
might or might not have hit your opponent. Unless you are Stu Ungar
you are going to have a hard time accurately distinguishing when your
opponent hit the flop, hit a draw, or missed everything but is a
stubborn donkey whos going to hit the Ace on the river no matter what
you do. Overall analysis: it is not a good flop if it contains an
overcard and theres is action from your opponent. (As a side-not: I
must say that some of the biggest pots I've won were with SMPP's on
overcard flops when I had a dead read on the player, these are
exceptions, and a s ageneral rule I fold to any action on an overcard
flop when I have a SMPP. Always follow your reads first though) Ok, so
those flops are bad, which would lead you to believe that flops
containing all undercards are probable safe, right? Well probably not
if you read the story above, and this is what I would say is the
greatest single leak in regard to overplaying these dangerous hands.
These flops appear safe and they sometimes are, the only problem is,
when they're safe you win a small pot, when they're not you usually
lose a big one. What I mean by this is, lets say you have our favorite
hockey sticks, you're in the HJ and you raise 3x on a 60bb stack, the
SB a tricky, good player on a smilar stack, flat calls, the flop comes
down 653x giving you an overpair and a gutshot to what you have to
assume would be the nuts, plus you also have 2 outs for a set (that
would make a straight but give you a redraw, if it was on the turn....
etc) the SB checks to you and you bet the standard 55%, and you get
raised 2.5 x your bet giving you about 3.25:1 odds. This is where most
people make the mistake of either calling or reraising (all in or
not). This is still a mistake even if the player is not so tricky, and
you didnt raise preflop, or he led out into you on the flop. What you
HAVE TO consider is what his hand could be or how it could've been
improved, or threatened by that flop so that he would put you to a
decision. Most of the time you will come to the realization that you
are probably beat. If you raised preflop and got called you have to
assume that the caller either called you with Ax or a PP (the
possibilities of course much wider than this and you should use your
information on a player to ascertain his range of hands, however the
two aforementioned options are the most common place amongst players
of unknown tight/looseness). In this case as it were with our 77 we
would not really be much of a favorite against any hand that would
raise us on the flop on a board of 653x unless it was specifically 44,
A7 or a complete bluff (such as overcards, which by the way still have
around a 30% chance of drawing out on you on the turn and the river).
The hands that you are going to get action from on that flop will
usually be pocket pairs either below or above your 77 and you are
losing to all but 2 of the 13 pocket pairs ever made. After some
consideration it should be apparent that these "safe" flops aren't if
you are getting any sort of action from an opponent and so one should
ask, what the hell AM I really looking for with a SMPP? the answer is
fairly obvious: a Set! I cannot begin to tell you how much middle
ground you place youself in if you begin/continue to play SMPP's on
flops where you haven't caught a set and you committed less than 5% of
your stack to the pot preflop (meaning you were in the hand to catch a
set, not to play the value of your hand, as I mentioned before, this
post applies to SMPP's on stacks of over 20BBs or 20x the preflop
raise). Yes if you follow this advice to a T you will invariably wind
up folding the best hand some of the time, but most of the time you
will be making the correct decision based on ranges, stack sizes and
the odds the pot will be giving you.
I feel as if I should wrap this up with a disclaimer, there is an age
old adage about poker questions, it says that the answer always begins
with the words, IT DEPENDS, I want you to memorize this, because every
situation you will encounter will be unique and will require a unique
course of action, after 100,000's of hands you might find yourself in
the same "unique" situation several times and you will instinctively
know what to do because you've already been there before. Until that
time I highly suggest you follow the guidelines that dictate a more
tight/conservative approach. While you are playing in this mode I want
you to observe every hand you are not involved in to tyr to narrow
down your opponents ranges to as few hands as possible. Once this
becomes routine for you, you should be able to open up your game and
turn some marginal spots into clear cut +EV situations. One example:
You're dealt 99 on the button, everyone folds you make it 2.5x on a
40BB stack (sure its not 1/20th but you're not exactly set mining, you
have the 5th best hand in the best position). The SB folds and the BB
calls. You have a read on the BB, you know he is aggressive and a
little on the loose side and would rerasie you with any pair/A8+ but
call you with any two high cards or an ace. The flop comes down A82x
and he checks. Now before you fire out a CBet, pause and use your
read, you know he's loose aggressive so his range is pretty wide,
however you can take the pairs out of the equation and only concern
yourself with two highcards or an ace. The fact that he checked the
flop suggests that he did not hit the ace (if the flop has a flush
draw on it it is even more reason to suspect he does not have an ace,
a lot of people find it very difficult to check top pair on a flop
that contains a flush draw, even heads up) so if you bet now he will
either most likely fold, or checkraise you in the case that he either
caught 2 pair or decided to slowplay an ace. In this situation I would
check about 90% of the time in an attempt to induce a call on a turn
that I deem safe for me. If the turn pairs the board, I will usually
have a much easier time getting action, because if the board didnt
improve then theoritcally neither did my hand, since I did not Cbet
the flop. If the turn falls a safe card that does not pair the board
such as 3-7 I will bet if checked to and call/raise based on my read
if bet into. Opportunities such as this are rare but I felt I needed
to mention a scenario such as this to demonstrate the fact that
although I am a preacher and practioner of very tight/conservative
SMPP play, there are times when all of that goes out of the window and
your position, read, stack and flop texture will determine your
action, not your cards.
I hope you enjoyed this read, I'll be back soon with more, let me know
if there is something specific someone wants me to discuss.
Dinky
had an exciting two weeks! I scored my biggest score last week when I
chopped up the $70k Guar. on PokerStars for 11k once it got down to
three handed at the final table and I had hald of the chips in play.
Originally they were hesitant to agree but once the math was done they
realized they were getting a good deal and agreed. They both walked
away with $200 more than 2nd place and I got about 1500 less than 1st,
and although I would loved to have won that tournament I am still
very satisfied with the result. To cap off last week's success I (for
some unknown impulsive reason) downloaded and installed Cake Poker on
my PC on Sunday. It turned out to be a good move, I won the first 2
tournaments I played on there netting $5300. I must say the players on
Cake Poker are really terrible and theres no database that keeps track
of who's who on Cake as they do for the other big sites, so it makes
it much less appealing to the number grinding nits who cannot play a
hand without pokertrtacker or some other crutch. This isnt to belittle
the software (such as ours, which unfortunately also does not yet
support Cake poker) that really does provide an edge, but the results
speak for themselves, and I certainly attribute the caliber of play on
Cake poker to the fact that they do not support 3rd party data-mining
software, nor do they release their results for tournaments, and this
literally turns enough people away that actually would do fairly well
anyway, that it leaves a window of opportunity for anyone willing to
play by the seat of their pants (oh yeah theyre calling your 15bb
shove w K7s ALL DAY!!!) to make a killing. PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK!!! I
have found that Cake sofware is at time glitchy and the times for
tournaments can sometimes be off by an hour. WHat happened to me twice
was that I had registered for a tournament that was supposed to start
at say 18.00, the clock on the program reads 18.00 but no tournament
comes up, I check the lobby and I'm still registered but the
unregister button has dissappeared, I said sh*t this funky website
just made me lose $33. Well an hour later the tournament starts and
all is not lost, partially due to the fact that I wasnt planning on
leaving my "office" for the next 12 hours, but if you have a life or
some other engagement that day, I would stay away from Cake's
tournaments until after they've started and you can late reg. into
them.
Aside from this theres is one subject I want to cover in this post,
and that is pocket pairs 22-99 in any position. I have noticed that
overplaying these hands is (was) a huge leak in my game and is a huge
leak in the game of many of my opponents. I must say that I've been
playing poker since 2001 and in my earliest days I've had insights
into the game the values of which I have only recently begun to apply
to my game profitably. One such insigt was that pocket pairs provide
you with a false sense of security, I remember saying these words out
loud to a buddy of mine at a local card club one night after what must
have been a loss with a hand I can probably guess oh about 1 in 8
times. (22-99, if you're really high or slow) The next time i
specifically remember beating myself up over overplaying a medium
pocket pair was in the 750k of Full Tilt about a year ago. I lost the
hand when I had made a standard raise from UTG w 77 and got called by
the SB, the flop fell 6 high and I felt pretty good when he checked to
me so I fired a standard CBet for about 1/2+ the pot and got flat
called. The turn paired the board and I bet again (closer to 2/3 of
the pot this time) after being checked to, when the villain check-
raised me all-in I knew I was in bad shape but by that time I had put
close to 2/3 of my stack into the pot and I had an overpair with a
gutshot, and so I lost to AA. I'm sure you can recant a similar story
if youve played enough poker and can understand what I mean by
overplaying small and middle pocket pairs (SMPP's) Often you are the
aggressor or the flop comes below your pocket pair, sometimes you have
a flush or a straight draw, sometimes both. Regardless of these
factors the only two factors that you should consider IMMEDIATELY
after being dealt SMPP is A)your chip stack relative to the blinds
B)if there is a raise, what proportion of your stack is equal to the
raise you have to call to see the flop (1/2, 1/10, 1/100... etc). If
there is no B) consider only A). Dan Harrington writes in his second
volume on tournament strategy, that the number of chips one should
have if one is calling a bet/raise preflop should be AT LEAST 20 times
the bet. That means that if the blinds are 200/400 and you have 6400
in chips you need about 1600 more chips to justify your MERE CALL of
the blinds preflop with a hand like 88 in early position. Now you
might say to me, hey I've seen you play you don't fold pocket pairs
when you have less than 20 times the preflop bet! And you're right I'm
usually going all in with them preflop in an attemp to take down the
blinds. I WOULD NEVER LIMP to try to catch a set with less than a 20BB
stack. I would also never call a raise that would force me to commit
more than 1/20th of my stack in the hopes of catching a set. One might
say that this is way too tight and that im not maximizing the value of
my small sets by either going all in preflop or folding, and yes I
guess this is true, but there are only maybe 2 hands I would play for
value (AA,KK) when I have less than 20BBs. The fact of the matter is
that once you have reached this pitiful level in the tournament,
you're not even playing poker anymore, you're playing a game of
intimidation and that has its own rules and strategy. As for getting
back to our subject on SMPP's, it is a widely known fact that the odds
of catching a set are approximately 1:8 and this is often
misinterpreted as the ratio of chips one should have in their stack
relative to amount one has to call to see the flop for set odds. NOT
SO! For one you not going to get paid 100% of the time you catch your
set, secondly you might wind up with the 2nd best hand anyway even
after you hit your set and this will most likely lose you your whole
stack. Another issue to consider is whether or not you are closing the
action preflop, because if you aren't you can never be sure that the
bet you are calling now will not be raised and invalidate the ratio.
Now although it is true that a lot of times when you are playing a
SMPP you will be up against two overcards, and technically you are
ahead of those hands preflop by a couple of percent. However, there is
approx a 50% chance of a queen king or an ace falling on the flop a
50%+ chance of a ten, queen, king or ace, 55%+ of a 9,10,J,K or A on
the flop and so on. Basically most of the time you play and SMPP you
are going to have to play it on a flop that contains overcards, which
might or might not have hit your opponent. Unless you are Stu Ungar
you are going to have a hard time accurately distinguishing when your
opponent hit the flop, hit a draw, or missed everything but is a
stubborn donkey whos going to hit the Ace on the river no matter what
you do. Overall analysis: it is not a good flop if it contains an
overcard and theres is action from your opponent. (As a side-not: I
must say that some of the biggest pots I've won were with SMPP's on
overcard flops when I had a dead read on the player, these are
exceptions, and a s ageneral rule I fold to any action on an overcard
flop when I have a SMPP. Always follow your reads first though) Ok, so
those flops are bad, which would lead you to believe that flops
containing all undercards are probable safe, right? Well probably not
if you read the story above, and this is what I would say is the
greatest single leak in regard to overplaying these dangerous hands.
These flops appear safe and they sometimes are, the only problem is,
when they're safe you win a small pot, when they're not you usually
lose a big one. What I mean by this is, lets say you have our favorite
hockey sticks, you're in the HJ and you raise 3x on a 60bb stack, the
SB a tricky, good player on a smilar stack, flat calls, the flop comes
down 653x giving you an overpair and a gutshot to what you have to
assume would be the nuts, plus you also have 2 outs for a set (that
would make a straight but give you a redraw, if it was on the turn....
etc) the SB checks to you and you bet the standard 55%, and you get
raised 2.5 x your bet giving you about 3.25:1 odds. This is where most
people make the mistake of either calling or reraising (all in or
not). This is still a mistake even if the player is not so tricky, and
you didnt raise preflop, or he led out into you on the flop. What you
HAVE TO consider is what his hand could be or how it could've been
improved, or threatened by that flop so that he would put you to a
decision. Most of the time you will come to the realization that you
are probably beat. If you raised preflop and got called you have to
assume that the caller either called you with Ax or a PP (the
possibilities of course much wider than this and you should use your
information on a player to ascertain his range of hands, however the
two aforementioned options are the most common place amongst players
of unknown tight/looseness). In this case as it were with our 77 we
would not really be much of a favorite against any hand that would
raise us on the flop on a board of 653x unless it was specifically 44,
A7 or a complete bluff (such as overcards, which by the way still have
around a 30% chance of drawing out on you on the turn and the river).
The hands that you are going to get action from on that flop will
usually be pocket pairs either below or above your 77 and you are
losing to all but 2 of the 13 pocket pairs ever made. After some
consideration it should be apparent that these "safe" flops aren't if
you are getting any sort of action from an opponent and so one should
ask, what the hell AM I really looking for with a SMPP? the answer is
fairly obvious: a Set! I cannot begin to tell you how much middle
ground you place youself in if you begin/continue to play SMPP's on
flops where you haven't caught a set and you committed less than 5% of
your stack to the pot preflop (meaning you were in the hand to catch a
set, not to play the value of your hand, as I mentioned before, this
post applies to SMPP's on stacks of over 20BBs or 20x the preflop
raise). Yes if you follow this advice to a T you will invariably wind
up folding the best hand some of the time, but most of the time you
will be making the correct decision based on ranges, stack sizes and
the odds the pot will be giving you.
I feel as if I should wrap this up with a disclaimer, there is an age
old adage about poker questions, it says that the answer always begins
with the words, IT DEPENDS, I want you to memorize this, because every
situation you will encounter will be unique and will require a unique
course of action, after 100,000's of hands you might find yourself in
the same "unique" situation several times and you will instinctively
know what to do because you've already been there before. Until that
time I highly suggest you follow the guidelines that dictate a more
tight/conservative approach. While you are playing in this mode I want
you to observe every hand you are not involved in to tyr to narrow
down your opponents ranges to as few hands as possible. Once this
becomes routine for you, you should be able to open up your game and
turn some marginal spots into clear cut +EV situations. One example:
You're dealt 99 on the button, everyone folds you make it 2.5x on a
40BB stack (sure its not 1/20th but you're not exactly set mining, you
have the 5th best hand in the best position). The SB folds and the BB
calls. You have a read on the BB, you know he is aggressive and a
little on the loose side and would rerasie you with any pair/A8+ but
call you with any two high cards or an ace. The flop comes down A82x
and he checks. Now before you fire out a CBet, pause and use your
read, you know he's loose aggressive so his range is pretty wide,
however you can take the pairs out of the equation and only concern
yourself with two highcards or an ace. The fact that he checked the
flop suggests that he did not hit the ace (if the flop has a flush
draw on it it is even more reason to suspect he does not have an ace,
a lot of people find it very difficult to check top pair on a flop
that contains a flush draw, even heads up) so if you bet now he will
either most likely fold, or checkraise you in the case that he either
caught 2 pair or decided to slowplay an ace. In this situation I would
check about 90% of the time in an attempt to induce a call on a turn
that I deem safe for me. If the turn pairs the board, I will usually
have a much easier time getting action, because if the board didnt
improve then theoritcally neither did my hand, since I did not Cbet
the flop. If the turn falls a safe card that does not pair the board
such as 3-7 I will bet if checked to and call/raise based on my read
if bet into. Opportunities such as this are rare but I felt I needed
to mention a scenario such as this to demonstrate the fact that
although I am a preacher and practioner of very tight/conservative
SMPP play, there are times when all of that goes out of the window and
your position, read, stack and flop texture will determine your
action, not your cards.
I hope you enjoyed this read, I'll be back soon with more, let me know
if there is something specific someone wants me to discuss.
Dinky
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