Making Sense of Chaos, a better Economics for a better World - Doyne Farmer -Penguin 2024

[David Dewhurst]

Hello again,

Just a very nice validation of most of what we were talking about 12+ years ago - with added detail and mechanics - and a good rubbishing of mainstream economics by one of the world's top Complexity dudes. His modelling is easier to appreciate than Hyman Minsky's maths which has been the moderately respectable academic way out of the idealised econometrics typical of degree courses.

I think Doyne Farmer's modelling, which aligns with actual data, also transcends Tim Jackson's 'Prosperity without Growth' (although I've not read the second edition yet)  Rupert Read advised me it was the best ecological economics book back in the day.

I'd rate Kate Raworth's 'Doughnut Economics' as better for most people than Jackson - a good 'systems' orientation & overview - but the detail in Farmer may be more compelling for most people. Plus the autobiographical throw-aways are fun. 

Farmer is no simplistic radical, but his projections - which are better validated than mainstream - suggest that nuclear is unnecessary as any kind of 'bridging' strategy. I also think you'll like his analogy between economics and the enteric nervous system (gut brain) and how well his modelling of financial market makers as having zero intelligence matches the actual data. He is entertaining about how some of the Basel II & III banking regulations made markets more volatile.

Two weeks ago I came away from the Berlin Global Solutions Summit pretty pessimistic. Steve Burak, who invited me, and I listened to two days of academics, UN outfits, NGOs, reps of good and bad commercial companies, Olaf Scholz, Bill Gates and some plausible activists talking about ways through what we face. Plenty of good work but a widespread feeling of spitting on the ocean.

Finishing ' Chaos' today gives me more hope - if we can get enough people to grasp the perspective of the likes of Doyne Farmer and relate economic policy to the leads which Complexity Economics can give us.

Effective computer modelling can be expensive. A decent weather predicting computer can use the energy of 8K US households. Arguably though, analogous expenditures in data gathering and processing for economics could be more accurate and somewhat cheaper.

My review is up on Amazon (but aim to source it otherwise). The book is as clear an account as any of our trajectory towards ecodoom and the clearest account I've found of hopes of getting out of it.

In related news, now could be the best time selfishly or individualistically to install solar panels. Sure p0.95 their costs will still drop, but labour installation costs will almost certainly rise. An experienced scaffolder averages £80K/yr and some £100K annually. I don't see AI replacing them before they/it decides it's their moral responsibility to decimate the planetary infestation of humans, and you can't scale up the labour force fast. Waiting times for installation look like rising and the payoffs for selling back to the grid may be optimal now. (Energy prices are projected to drop.)  Each property will probably need to raise £7K+ . Internet adverts offering subsidies are probably scams to sell other stuff like heat pump installation. Expect some unnecessary attempts at upselling. The most expensive panels may not be best value although a good inverter probably is. Different circumstances, different local payoffs.

If you are interested in understanding systems and cybernetics perspectives generally we are developing a course (on-line, a few months) which will give Membership of the Cybernetics Society, due to roll out September or January. Free - at least as we trial it. I'm co-writing & presenting the introductory module. Let me know if you'd think of engaging.

Have a cool summer,

Dave

I sent this out yesterday but Google's new security didn't like me using a different email address from 2011. If you change yours you may have problems posting to the group. Thanks to John Bywater for figuring & explaining this to me.

(I've also bcc'd a few people not in this Google group or whom I know have changed emails.)

[Steve Burak]

Thanks Dave .. I received this!

Steve😀

Sent from my iPhone

On 20 May 2024, at 14:36, David Dewhurst <david.d...@gmail.com> wrote:



--

---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "lsxcampeconomics" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to lsxcampeconomi...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/lsxcampeconomics/CAMQiVGHL1kRnSq9sKGfN6MCa1FMbrzW-41d7grTJurFO8PnTqw%40mail.gmail.com.

[Clive Menzies]

Thanks Dave

The ills we experience today are the inevitable consequence of the structure driven by exchange money. Money is the way we've organised ourselves for the last three to five thousand years whereas for most of modern humans' existence we organised ourselves without money.

The reason money was adopted is because there were no tools or means to scale the methodology that sustained us for millennia; once we expanded our activities beyond the boundaries of the tribe/group, we had no means to capture the unique attributes of the external groups and individuals we encountered. In the absence of such information money became the proxy for human values but it is a very crude, inaccurate measure of what we really need.

We now have the tools/technology to organise ourselves with reference to real, unique human values and attributes and major structural change is underway:
https://www.outersite.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/TheMoneyParadox_final1010.pdf

We are in the midst of a paradigm shift of millennial proportions which is why everything is so crazy at present; the structure is dying and those who thought they were in control are desperately trying to hang on to the status quo. Their foundations are being swept away by the tides of change.

Regards

Clive

--

---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "lsxcampeconomics" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to lsxcampeconomi...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/lsxcampeconomics/CAMQiVGHL1kRnSq9sKGfN6MCa1FMbrzW-41d7grTJurFO8PnTqw%40mail.gmail.com.

-- 
Live By Love, Take What We Need, Leave The Rest
https://outersite.org
https://cocreativelearning.org
https://invisibleuniverse.org