ANALYSIS OF ONE 52 DRAW TRIAL OF 35 WITH 56 RANDOM SELECTIONS VERSUS A 56 LINE POOL 9, KEY 1 WHEEL IN 6/49 LOTTO

[Almighty Random]

Recentlly, on the unmoderated usergroup rec.gambling.lottery, unfortunately currently pestered with a previously sectioned imbecile and troll, one trial of a previous 34 was conducted online pitting a Pool 9 Key 1 Wheel against 56 Random Selections (draws 1804 to 1859 of UK Lotto)  in the UK Lotto. The results of the 35 trials may be viewed here Pool 9 Key 1 Wheel 56 Lines vs Random Selections showing 25 where Random Selections was ahead and only 10 for the Key Wheel. Overall, Random Selections is ahead by some 8% after 101,920 plays or 20 years playing twice per week.

The table below shows that for the 52 draws the Key Wheel was ahead for only 5 and Random Selections ahead for 46. From analysing the Key Wheel against all 13,983,816 possible combinations of 6 numbers in a 6/49 Lotto game there is a coverage of only 6.67% the expected incidence of wins after rounding up is 4 in 52 or 1 in 13 draws. It is an extraordinary fortunate bit of luck for the Key Wheel to get a cluster of 3 wins in 4 draws just before the last draw. The luck is compounded by 2 of those being 20 match-3's which for the Key Wheel is half as likely as getting 10 match-3's. These things happen but in the overall assessment count for little.

The trial is useful in illustrating that the COMMON LIES put out by the likes of con-artist Dr Iliya Bluskov, in his book 'The Ultimate Book on Lotto Systems' where he states "... systems provides a steadier stream of wins compared to playing with a random collection of tickets." and "...playing with a system increases the chances of winning."  are just that. There are 2 main Lesser Pool Wheels or Covers lies -

Systems Lie Number 1    Wins occur more often
Systems Lie Number 2    Wins are more regular     

From examining the table where even though the trial resulted in the Key Wheel at the end being ahead it is still obvious Random Selection HAD WINS MORE OFTEN AND MORE REGULARLY.

Trial	Day	Draw	Date	Random Wins	Wheel Wins	Cum Random	Cum Wheel	Random Ahead	Wheel Ahead
1	Sat	1860	19/10/2013	0.00	0.00	0	0	No	No
2	Wed	1861	23/10/2013	25.00	0.00	25	0	Yes	No
3	Sat	1862	26/10/2013	25.00	0.00	50	0	Yes	No
4	Wed	1863	30/10/2013	50.00	0.00	100	0	Yes	No
5	Sat	1864	2/11/2013	0.00	0.00	100	0	Yes	No
6	Wed	1865	6/11/2013	50.00	0.00	150	0	Yes	No
7	Sat	1866	9/11/2013	0.00	0.00	150	0	Yes	No
8	Wed	1867	13/11/2013	0.00	0.00	150	0	Yes	No
9	Sat	1868	16/11/2013	25.00	0.00	175	0	Yes	No
10	Wed	1869	20/11/2013	25.00	0.00	200	0	Yes	No
11	Sat	1870	23/11/2013	0.00	0.00	200	0	Yes	No
12	Wed	1871	27/11/2013	0.00	0.00	200	0	Yes	No
13	Sat	1872	30/11/2013	0.00	0.00	200	0	Yes	No
14	Wed	1873	4/12/2013	25.00	0.00	225	0	Yes	No
15	Sat	1874	7/12/2013	25.00	0.00	250	0	Yes	No
16	Wed	1875	11/12/2013	0.00	0.00	250	0	Yes	No
17	Sat	1876	14/12/2013	0.00	0.00	250	0	Yes	No
18	Wed	1877	18/12/2013	0.00	0.00	250	0	Yes	No
19	Sat	1878	21/12/2013	50.00	0.00	300	0	Yes	No
20	Wed	1879	25/12/2013	0.00	0.00	300	0	Yes	No
21	Sat	1880	28/12/2013	50.00	0.00	350	0	Yes	No
22	Wed	1881	1/01/2014	50.00	0.00	400	0	Yes	No
23	Sat	1882	4/01/2014	0.00	0.00	400	0	Yes	No
24	Wed	1883	8/01/2014	25.00	500.00	425	500	No	Yes
25	Sat	1884	11/01/2014	0.00	0.00	425	500	No	Yes
26	Wed	1885	15/01/2014	100.00	0.00	525	500	Yes	No
27	Sat	1886	18/01/2014	25.00	0.00	550	500	Yes	No
28	Wed	1887	22/01/2014	25.00	0.00	575	500	Yes	No
29	Sat	1888	25/01/2014	50.00	0.00	625	500	Yes	No
30	Wed	1889	29/01/2014	25.00	0.00	650	500	Yes	No
31	Sat	1890	1/02/2014	25.00	0.00	675	500	Yes	No
32	Wed	1891	5/02/2014	25.00	0.00	700	500	Yes	No
33	Sat	1892	8/02/2014	25.00	0.00	725	500	Yes	No
34	Wed	1893	12/02/2014	200.00	0.00	925	500	Yes	No
35	Sat	1894	15/02/2014	50.00	0.00	975	500	Yes	No
36	Wed	1895	19/02/2014	50.00	0.00	1025	500	Yes	No
37	Sat	1896	22/02/2014	25.00	0.00	1050	500	Yes	No
38	Wed	1897	26/02/2014	25.00	0.00	1075	500	Yes	No
39	Sat	1898	1/03/2014	0.00	0.00	1075	500	Yes	No
40	Wed	1899	5/03/2014	0.00	0.00	1075	500	Yes	No
41	Sat	1900	8/03/2014	50.00	0.00	1125	500	Yes	No
42	Wed	1901	12/03/2014	50.00	0.00	1175	500	Yes	No
43	Sat	1902	15/03/2014	25.00	250.00	1200	750	Yes	No
44	Wed	1903	19/03/2014	75.00	0.00	1275	750	Yes	No
45	Sat	1904	22/03/2014	25.00	0.00	1300	750	Yes	No
46	Wed	1905	26/03/2014	25.00	0.00	1325	750	Yes	No
47	Sat	1906	29/03/2014	0.00	0.00	1325	750	Yes	No
48	Wed	1907	2/04/2014	75.00	250.00	1400	1000	Yes	No
49	Sat	1908	5/04/2014	50.00	500.00	1450	1500	No	Yes
50	Wed	1909	9/04/2014	100.00	0.00	1550	1500	Yes	No
51	Sat	1910	12/04/2014	75.00	500.00	1625	2000	No	Yes
52	Wed	1911	16/04/2014	0.00	0.00	1625	2000	No	Yes