Bordeaux 2008: greed returns in tilting market

[Matthias R WHT]

This year’s futures campaign started off so hopeful, with prices
drastically lower than in the previous years. Latour released at 45%
below 2007, Mouton at -50% (for more details see my previous
postings).

But things started to change when Robert Parker decides that 2008 is a
Grand Year. From that moment on the price drops are less spectacular,
and the best wines even release at 2007 price level, e.g. Buy-of-the-
Year Pontet-Canet. The wine sells out immediately and a second tranche
follows, of course at a higher price.

This more or less marked the end of the truly spectacular releases.
Especially the Right Bank wines start releasing now at relatively high
price levels.

But since this - short - week it seems that we are returning to
Business As Usual, I’m afraid. The first sign is the release of Ducru-
Beaucaillou at the end of last week, with good ratings, priced 20%
above the 2007. A striking release, well-timed close to the end of the
campaign, when everybody is waiting for those few Unreleaseds. For the
Left Bank Léoville-las-Cases was the other Big Unreleased, and this
wine stepped forward yesterday. Other than expected it slightly
decreases its price, with a lousy 11%, but in the light of the recent
developments a rather friendly price.

The second château presenting its price yesterday was Cheval Blanc.
And despite a price drop of about 20%, to me this wine still is much
too expensive: with 300 euros ex. (from négociant) and about 400 euros
inc. (consumer price) it releases at more (much more) than twice the
price of its Left Bank premier cru neighbours. A crazy price, and I
can only explain the difference with the Left Bankers by reasoning
that Cheval Blanc wants its price to be close, and as close as
possible, to Ausone. And why actually, with the enormous difference in
available quantities for these two wines?

But today my shock is complete: Lafite is proposing a second tranche,
exploring demand at the price of... 300 euros as well! Following a
first tranche at - just - 130 euro (to compare: the second tranche of
Château Margaux last week was at a 'friendly' 155 euros). Unbelievable
this new price, and perhaps even a little sick. But then again, if the
market absorbs these wines... and yes... my naive Why? at the end of
the last paragraph might also be answered today: Cheval Blanc seems to
be selling!

Apparently greed is back. At the side of the seller, but as it seems
also at the side of the buyer. Too bad that it - greed I mean - had
only been gone for such a short period of time... Or am I being too
pessimistic now? I really hope so.



- David Bolomey. Bordoverview. October 19, 2009.