NFL Divisional Weekend
Tiago Proulx
We're officially through the wild-card round for the 2022 season, and all eight NFL playoff divisional round teams are locked in. And after the Cowboys defeated the Buccaneers on Monday night, we know the four matchups for next weekend.
So let's look ahead to that stacked divisional-round schedule, which includes the first postseason contests of the season for the Chiefs and Eagles, who each had a bye after 14-win campaigns. To get you ready for next week's slate, Brooke Pryor picked out the biggest thing to watch for in each game, and Seth Walder explored how each team can win to advance to its conference championship game.
The northeast corner of the United States of America finds itself struggling this week to grapple with the fact that despite the fact that Tom Brady suited up all year, despite the fact that Bill Belichick roamed the sidelines and crushed some film work on the treadmill, despite the fact that Robert Kraft owns the team, and despite the fact that home games are still held in Gillette Stadium ... the New England Patriots somehow will not be hosting a football game during the divisional round of the playoffs.
This has not been the case for 10 years. It was a decade that began with an absolutely stunning loss to Rex Ryan's Jets in 2010. After that, the Patriots ripped off eight straight victories in the divisional round. They destroyed Tim Tebow's Broncos, demolished a parade of AFC South losers, suffocated the much-hyped Chargers, outlasted a clock-confused Andy Reid, and outlasted the Ravens in the greatest game in Gillette Stadium's history.
So good, in fact, that you could note this: The Patriots went 8-0 in the divisional round from 2011-18. The Detroit Lions do not have eight playoff wins in their entire history. They have seven. So do the Jaguars and Cardinals. The Buccaneers have six. The Bengals have ... five! The Texans now have four.
On a larger point, I'd note that wild-card weekend involved 252 minutes of football where no team held a two-possession lead, save for five minutes in New Orleans. Last weekend's four teams were all very comparable to each other in terms of overall potency ... which means none are really on the level of the four teams who spent last weekend getting mani-pedis and/or catching a mid-afternoon showing of "Frozen II."
But around this time of year, it's always important to not get too swept up in the amazement of wild-card wins. That is to say, it's easy to get bewitched by teams we all just witnessed winning in dramatic fashion a week ago, which could then lead to us all kind of forgetting that the actual good football teams were all given a weekend of rest for their efforts.
The Divisional Round is here, r/NFL! We saw some incredible games last week and I hope the trend continues this week. I went 4-2, with my two incorrect picks being the low confidence ones, which I feel good about. Predictions will become quite a bit harder, as every team playing has a legit chance of going all the way. The weekend is split down the middle, with the #1 seeds playing Saturday. Here we go!
Of the 13 games played in the playoffs, nine were decided by seven or fewer points. For the final seven postseason games, six were decided by three points. Five of those six were decided with game-winning field goals. The only game that was not decided by three points was the divisional round game between the Bills and Chiefs, which was decided with a game-winning touchdown in overtime.
The prices to both games are well above the other two Divisional Round games set for this weekend: the cheapest ticket for the Buffalo Bills-Cincinnati Bengals game is $248, while the cheapest to see the Kansas City Chiefs-Jacksonville Jaguars game costs $203, according to TicketIQ.
The San Francisco 49ers enter the weekend ahead with zero question marks surrounding the team's availability for the NFC Divisional Round matchup versus the Dallas Cowboys. No players were listed as questionable, and just two, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and cornerback Ambry Thomas, were ruled out for Sunday's contest.
All three players who were limited in the team's first two workouts of the week, defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw (knee), wide receiver Jauan Jennings (ankle) and defensive lineman Samson Ebukam (ankle), were cleared to play this weekend.
The NFL announced next weekend's slate at the conclusion of Cincinnati's win over the Baltimore Ravens Sunday night, which secured a trip to Buffalo for the Bengals. The Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will play Monday night in the week's final wild-card game. The winner will travel to play the San Francisco 49ers next Sunday.
The Cowboys beat the Bucs on Monday to secure the first matchup of the postseason that's not a rematch from the regular season. They'll renew their longstanding playoff rivalry with the 49ers to close out the divisional round schedule.
Following an entertaining super wild-card weekend, the NFL playoffs continue with the divisional round, and BetMGM's already posted odds for the next slate of games. As we do at the start of each week, we'll list every divisional round game's spread, moneyline, and total, updating those numbers as they get bet throughout the next few days.
The divisional round slate kicks off on Saturday afternoon with the top-seeded Chiefs (-9.5) hosting the fourth-seeded Jaguars for the second time this season at Arrowhead Stadium (4:30 p.m. ET, NBC). Later that day, the NFC's top seed, Philadelphia (-8), hosts the sixth-seeded Giants in an NFC East battle in prime time (8:15 p.m. ET, FOX). The action then spills over into Sunday, as the second-seeded Bills (-6) face off against the third-seeded Bengals (3:00 p.m. ET, CBS) before the second-seeded 49ers (-4) welcome the fifth-seeded Cowboys (6:30 p.m. ET, FOX).
Keep in mind these lines will move throughout the week as we get updates on the playing status of key starters and betting limits increase. Below, we take a look at the latest odds for the divisional round from BetMGM and offer up an early bet to consider.
My favorite weekend of the NFL year is here. This historically has been the toughest week for road teams to win, because you used to have a pair of teams in each conference coming off a first-round bye. So when those upsets did happen, they are instantly memorable, and they almost can hurt worse than getting blown out in the Super Bowl does.
The Colts' 27-17 win over the AFC No. 1 seed New England Patriots was a comprehensive win with contributions from offense, defense and special teams. But Frank Reich and this team aren't letting off the gas with another major test on the horizon next weekend.
For the first time since 1997, three teams from the same division have made it to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. This season, the NFC East is currently 29-16-1 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents, the best division ATS this season and the best year for the NFC East in the last 20 years.
The Cowboys are playing their fourth consecutive road game this weekend in the Divisional Round at San Francisco. Over the last 20 years, only two other teams have entered a playoff game on four consecutive road games:
+ Daniel Jones and Jalen Hurts combined for 1,468 rushing yards during the regular season. It's the most combined rush yards ever for a playoff QB matchup, surpassing Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen in the 2020 divisional round (1,426).
+ Bills were favored in all 17 games this season (including their Wild Card and Divisional round game). They are the 8th team in the last 20 years to be favored in every regular season game. 4 of the previous 7 made the Super Bowl, but none of the last three since 2019. Bills are also just the 3rd team of the bunch to have to play in the Wild Card weekend in this spot: 2019 NE, 2021 TB, 2022 BUF.
+ However, in the divisional round, teams that benefited from the bye have gone just 31-40-1 (43.7%) ATS for a subpar -15.3% ROI. Those 72 teams have failed to cover by an average margin on -1.27 points.
*Non-SCCA members must sign up for a Weekend Membership at a cost of $15 for the weekend. Non-SCCA members cannot complete registration without purchasing a weekend membership. You will be prompted for a weekend membership during your online registration.
This weekend, you will want to have your snacking strategy in order heading into two full days of NFL playoff action. Whether you're a fan of underdogs or contenders, you'll have plenty to root for in this round. Will the Baltimore Ravens' unexpected success carry over into the postseason? Who's going to win the battle of the quarterbacks when Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers face off? For that and more, let's talk to Lindsay Jones, who covers the NFL for the website The Athletic.
JONES: Because it's so packed. So you have four really marquee games. Usually, what happens in divisional round is you have the right matchups. You now have the marquee quarterbacks. You have the best teams playing, the ones and two seeds that both were off during Wild Card Weekend, and you have just back-to-back games. And I think it's setting up to be a really good weekend for NFL fans, too.
SHAPIRO: Let's talk about one of the big storylines going into the weekend. The Baltimore Ravens, led by quarterback Lamar Jackson, ended the regular season with a record of 14-2, which nobody expected at the beginning of the season. Do you think they will have a challenging time against the Tennessee Titans this weekend?
The Kansas City Chiefs got wild-card weekend off after securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC conference, but every other AFC team is playing a game this weekend. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers have already squared off, with Jaguars pulling off an improbable comeback despite a bevy of turnovers by QB Trevor Lawrence.
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