Hi Gere,
WOW!!! Your comments are insightful ... maybe I should say
"inciteful".
Hard to believe that TLPC actually paid $63,000 to get an appraised
share value of $1,865 per share. That's like three accountants
working full time for two months - must be a kevlar-complicated
analysis. My appraisal of $1,891/share based on the Erie County
property appraisals took about 15 hours (see my posting here dated 30
July 2008).
Due to a flaw in my analysis, the $1,891 appraisal resolves into
$1,277/share. I can't help but wonder if the Mollica "as is"
appraisal contains the same flaw (my guess is that it does).
Gere, your nice-guy example of paying "Potential Value" for something
seems incomplete. Should not the payout be equal to the potential
value minus the capital and/or effort needed to realize that potential
- that is, to-make-it-happen? Of course this assumes that one can
define the development that will realized the "potential".
As my MMBA Prof said, "If you don't know where you are going, any road
will get you there." Or, as I spouted out, "BS! ... no road will get
you there!"
Cheers,
Andy
P.S. Seems to me if TLPC wants to build value, it would be better to
borrow and rebuild the hotel instead of buying shares at a Mythical
wannabe value based on maybes du jour and hyperbola.