If the salvage (slaughter value of old females) zero or negative (made to pay for disposing off), the entire dairy sector (read milk) will crumble for it is one of the key factors to rear dairy animals (cow or buffalo). The major reason why small farmers still continue to rear animals is to obtain fresh unadulterated milk (from a known breed, type of animal with known history the fodder it eats) for the family of the farmer. Nearly 50% of total milk production in the country is consumed at home of production and is predominantly one of the Indian breeds of cows or buffaloes (64 recognised as of date) and may continue to be produced.
It is the females of the so called crossbred cows that will be most affected and the urban India can say goodbye to fresh milk, forever.
I fear there is an external hand in making India milk deficit (import dependent) a.k.a. pulses and edible oils.
So, urban India get ready to consume milk made from milk powder and water at fresh milk prices. The signals are all there. With a Rs.2 to 5 per litre rise recently, as soon as elections got over (as usual) and expecting another increase in the consumer price in the last quarter of this year. What happens to the Farmgate price? What's that? NO one is keeping track of the later!? Even though it is a public good and should be available daily at every village level / player level from range, mean, median, mode, frequency distribution in terms of price vs quantity, +/- 1, 2 and 3 SD with names of those who are getting above + 2SD the price.
We professionals and public institutions supposed to "develop" this sector are making a fool of ourselves. No one else can be blamed.
Best wishes.
Dr. S Rajeshwaran BVSc PGDRM PhD (IIMB)
Dr Waran's Livestock Management Consultancy