All variables have te expected sign. The initial level of TFPrelative to that of the United States (TFPR_0) has a coefficient less thanone and is highly significant. This implies that conditional convergence alsoprevails. In addition, the coefficients on the initial ratios of human andphysical capital (HKR_0 and KR_0) are positive and significant. While boththe relative endowments in human and physical capital are importantdeterminants of relative TFP, human capital has a much stronger effect in thesense that its coefficient is approximately 10 times larger than thecoefficient on physical capital. This does not reflect simply a unit problemas both variables are expressed in logs. Life expectancy (LIFE), which isanother proxy for the stage of development, appears with a positive andsignificant coefficient. Thus, initial conditions are important determinantsof TFP. Terms of trade shocks (TOT) have a positive and significant effect onrelative TFP. This simply reflects an income effect that shifts theproduction function up (for given capital and labor inputs) as the currentaccount improves for given export and import quantities. A good macroeconomicenvironment contributes significantly to the TFP level: lower inflation(INFL), lower real exchange rate (RER), lower government consumption (Cg),higher ratio of reserves to imports (RESM), and lower external debt (DEBT)are associated with higher TFP levels. Both current account (CACON) andcapital account (KCON) convertibility improve TFP. Equations (2)-(5) showthat CACON is significant only when KCON is excluded from the equationbecause these two variables are positively correlated. Not surprisingly,social harmony and relative political stability, as indicated by a low ratioof war casualties to population (DEATH), increase TFP significantly.
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