SA scenarios after 29/5

[Trevor Watkins]

In a result so very typical of South Africa, the past election has left everyone a little poorer, except the biggest thief of all. All the parties lost votes to feed Zuma's insatiable maw.  Nobody is falling on their swords, most can't even find them.

While the parties hunt around for the worst possible outcome, here is an optimistic possibility I have not seen discussed.

Ramaphosa is unlikely to survive a coalition with the EFF and the MK effers. He is hated and despised by both groups. What's a weak-kneed and spineless jellyfish to do? Well, try to take down as many as possible with you.

If Ramaphosa was to lead a verligte breakaway from the ANC which included about 120 of the new MPs, this new party could form a coalition with the DA and friends without all the ideological baggage that comes with the existing ANC. He could lose his many backstabbers in the existing ANC in a single bold move, and lead a new party in which he isn't just a pawn to the many factions.

Think about it Cyril - you might be shocked.

Trevor Watkins
bas...@gmail.com - 083 44 11 721 - www.individualist.one

[Gabri Rigotti]

Yes 😊👍👌

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[Gabri Rigotti]

Actually he could simply as head of the ANC just go ahead with the coalition and only if he were to be ousted by the ANC, only then breakaway ...

The ANC would however be finished as Ramaphosa would take a significant percentage with him.

Whereas if he remains head of the ANC, even if it bleeds more to MK and EFF, the coalition that would result would have credible standing internationally.

That matters a lot, even if the ANC lost a few more percentage points.

It would still be the largest party.

And with success in a coalition with the DA and the MPC it could take back the less radical voters that it lost to MK and EFF.

A smaller but healthier ANC, still as the largest party in SA, in a coalition with the DA and the MPC would be good for the country, for a freer market, and for individual freedom.

It is not libertarianism but it would be an excellent real world outcome ...

[John Pretorius]

Simpler said than done, though. My understanding of our parliamentary system is that the seats belong to the party not the individual MPs. Unless he led a majority faction, Ramaphosa and his fellow verligte jellyfish would be ousted by the ANC and thereby lose their seats. The ousted faction would be powerless. 

John Pretorius

13 Olive Lane, Morningside, Sandton 2196, South Africa

+27 83 231 5025
+27 11 784 5546 

jrp...@gmail.com

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From: li...@googlegroups.com <li...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Gabri Rigotti <rigo...@gmail.com>
Sent: Tuesday, 04 June 2024 15:03
To: li...@googlegroups.com <li...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [Libsa] SA scenarios after 29/5

 

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[Petrus Potgieter]

Correct. I do not understand the new 3rd ballot but my understanding agrees with yours. Afstig is not an option in the current system. Not sure whether a new election could be called somehow but I have the feeling the nobody would want that, except possibly MK.

What seems fairly clear is that Cupcake managed to achieve what he reportedly tried hardest to avoid – splitting the ANC. That is what happens: if you look at the tree and not at the road, you will hit the tree.


Op 04-06-2024 om 13:22:27 +0000 skryf John Pretorius jrp...@gmail.com:

[Trevor Watkins]

My mistake. It would have to be a joint decision of the NEC to evict the leftists. - Not gonna happen.

Floor crossing was a system introduced to the post-apartheid South African political system in 2002, under which members of Parliament, members of provincial legislatures and local government councillors could change political party (or form a new party) and take their seats with them when they did so. Floor crossing in South Africa was abolished in January 2009.

Trevor Watkins
bas...@gmail.com - 083 44 11 721 - www.individualist.one

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[Stephen van Jaarsveldt]

Besides, people in RSA do not vote for people, they vote for parties... and more specifically for the party brand. That much was obvious when the SACP took over the ANC in 2009 - people kept voting for the ANC logo, despite the entire party underneath it being entirely new & different to the ANC which preceded it. It does not matter who goes where, people will still vote for the ANC logo - it is a very powerful brand. Splitting off or creating new parties in RSA is futile - your best bet is to hijack, take over or revamp the ANC itself. Ditto the DA - that party has changed fundamentally on more than one occasion, yet they still have largely the same supporters continuing to support the logo / brand, regardless of any people or policies attached to it. People think they know what the DA stands for and then they vote for that. What it actually stands for is banning dogs from walking on the beach, drinking after midnight (aka prohibition) and outlawing anything but walking on the streets (see laws enacted by the DA right after taking control of the Western Cape). If you wanted the support of about 15% of RSA voters, you would waste your time marketing and campaigning and explaining - your best bet is to steal the DA logo and then do whatever the hell you want - voters look only at the badge, not the policies, track records or people. You can replace the entire ANC leadership and flip it's entire policy agenda, while making zero difference to the votes & seats it gets - 2009 was a very clear example.

S.

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[Gabri Rigotti]

Regarding John's:

Simpler said than done, though. My understanding of our parliamentary system is that the seats belong to the party not the individual MPs. Unless he led a majority faction, Ramaphosa and his fellow verligte jellyfish would be ousted by the ANC and thereby lose their seats. The ousted faction would be powerless. 

Yes, how to go about this would be a challenge.

It would be better first off for Ramaphosa to fight as hard as he can to remain the leader of the ANC.

He needs to win the ANC over.

Which is why the DA and the MPC need to be very wise in how they seek the coalition.

The alternative is dire, the ANC in coalition with the EFF or with MK or worse still, with both the EFF and MK, could take SA very close to the edge of the two thirds majority to change the Constitution.

If a few of the rabid extremist parties come into play like AZAPO or PAC that two thirds majority could be achieved.

The ANC will be dragged over by the weight of the EFF or MK or both and the economic future of South Africa will be very bleak.

This is a whole new game now ...

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" It is not the water in the fields that brings true development, rather, it is water in the eyes, or compassion for fellow beings, that brings about real development. "

—Anna Hazare

[John Koppisch]

It was a good idea while it lasted!

The election has put SA back in the news here in the U.S. for the first time in many years. Lots of interest in what will happen and whether S.A. can start turning itself around.

[Trevor Watkins]

I am surprised that more people did not challenge you on this post. 

You make it sound like South Africans only vote for the pretty familiar logo, without applying their minds to the issues. It's like saying Americans only vote red or blue. Oh, wait.

I did not vote DA in 2019 (while in New Zealand, I voted Capitalist party) and I have just voted Referendum Party Nothing changed, thus confirming my opinion that voting is meaningless.

However that great mass of mindless ANC voters have just proved their detractors wrong. Well done I say.

I still think that the way forward is for the ANC to split, and the verligte portion forms a coalition with the DA and others, and the verkrampte portion will unite with MKP and EFF. If the verligte portion does not secure a majority, then my long term secession policy suddenly becomes short term, and my vote for the Referendum Party is vindicated.

Trevor Watkins
bas...@gmail.com - 083 44 11 721 - www.individualist.one

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[Stephen van Jaarsveldt]

I'm surprised too. Maybe more folks on this forum have read Oliver Sacks's book "The man who mistook his wife for a hat" and other such brain research related publications, which all suggest that, for the most part, the elephant is in charge.

S.

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