Obama's win

[Frances Kendall]

My take on this, with which I do not expect agreement, but for the record, is that Obama's win is a very good thing for the USA.

He had a convincing win and is in a strong position to tackle the debt crisis. This is his last election so he doesn't need to look over this shoulder. The republican house will not be able to refuse cuts despite having to face elections in two years because they banged on about the debt throughout the election process. The left democrats will have to accept cuts in exchange for tax increases, for which Obama has a strong mandate.

Romney would have been busy trying to put together an administration and handle the fiscal cliff with reelection in four years to worry about (cuts are very unpopular) and recalcitrant democrats enjoying pay back time.

My prediction is the US will settle into steady growth over the next four years, Obama will get the debt under control, and then tackle the immigration and energy issues.

For the record.

Let's hope I'm right :).

Sent from my iPad

[Jaco Strauss]

I realise the final tally is not in yet, but the last total I saw had Obama on less that 50% of the popular vote. Even though your broader analysis might eventually prove valid, his win could still hardly be described as "convincing"...

Regards

Jaco

2012/11/7 Frances Kendall <fken...@me.com>

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Jaco Strauss
Cape Town

[Frances Kendall]

He's expected to beat 50% and did almost a clean sweep of swing states. It's convincing enough!

Sent from Frances iPhone

[Leon Louw (gmail)]

Here's my take, a copy of an email to some friends:

Wow, Tim, that's fighting stuff!

I've been saying all along that it makes little difference (to US policies) who wins - peas in a pod, Tweedledee and Tweedledum, symbiotic twins, two sides of a coin.

Herewith something I circulated recently on the relevance, or lack of it, of US Presidents.

I happen to be for Obama for reasons that have nothing to do with anything he's done, might do, or stands for, but for race relations.  You point out correctly that the black vote smacks of crude racism, as opposed to the white vote, where the number of whites who voted for non-race reasons is, for me, both welcome and impressive.  My main reasons for being pleased is convoluted; I think it would be very bad for racism worldwide, including here, were the first black president in a country where blacks are 12% to be a 1-term president and go down as having failed.  Regardless of anything he's done or might do, the mess he inherited from preceding Democrats and Republicans alike (the insane subprime mortgage crisis) meant there was little or no chance of a "successful" term, whereas, again regardless of anything he does, his 2nd term is likely to be seen as a success.

Stuff that much is made of, such as Obamacare, is entirely peripheral -- the healthcare budget for an already socialised system won't change -- nor will military budgets, or internment of political prisoners with or without Guantanamo.  Speaking of which, note that it's still there.  And that there's no coherent reason to shut it.  What's needed is human rights, rule of law, and due process, regardless of where.

I always like your comments, Tim, especially that unlike 99% of people you're not confined to a pathetically myopic logic bubble.  You can be pro-market without being pro-big business, and be for civil liberties without being left, and so on.

By the way, Des, I don't agree that "sanity prevailed" because I don't agree that there's a significant difference between them, and I'm no more for Democrat Leviathan that for the subtle shade of difference Republican variation.  This, I suspect, may be one of the few issues on which we differ, and then only slightly.  I'm pro-Obama for different reasons, (a) above, and (b) that I find him marginally more likable.  The reactions I get when I wear the Obama T-shirt you gave me are instructive.  Whites tend to look, take note, and move on.  Many blacks look, lift their gaze to my face, stare back at my Obama-adorned chest, then give me a sign of approval -- thumbs-up, wink, head-nod, whatever.  What's sad about this it that I doubt I'd get that response but for racist assumptions and stereotypes. 

I've been asked by various media what I think the implications are for Africa and SA.  The objective response, which means mine of course, reflects the  conundrum of US politics.  By any calculus Republicans have been better.  They have been by far the most generous aid givers.  The dreaded George W Bush, for instance, created both the Millennium Fund and AGOA (worth much more than aid).  The dollar has fallen (irrationally, I might add -- see my attachment), which means the rand strengthened, which, according to the left, is bad for SA (makes us less competitive).  So, by standard  criteria, Obama's victory should be regarded as bad for us/Africa.  Though, as I said, socio-psychological benefits might off-set ideological costs.

ciao

L

Leon Louw

work:  +27-11-884-0270

mobile:  +27-84-618-0348

www.freemarketfoundation.com

[Trevor Watkins]

I would have liked to see Romney win if only because it would have made the world (and the US) more interesting. We know what Obama has done and is likely to do, and its mostly wrong, although he does have a modicum of style.

I like Frances reasons for preferring an Obama win, and agree with them. For me, the best reason for liking an Obama win is that it makes accusations of Western imperialism and racism by African and Asian dictators look ever more stupid, our bunch included.

I continue to believe that we have not seen the end nor the bottom of the financial crisis, that there is a piper who remains unpaid, and that the next 4 years are likely to be tough and ugly.

Trevor Watkins

[John Pretorius]

I liked the Obama win because at least we’ll get to see more of his brilliant oratory – it’s the same crap but he says it so well. Oh and because the Dems are likely to screw up the economy just slightly faster than the other guys, it brings us that much closer to the day when the whole mess implodes and we can start again.

 

John R Pretorius