Download File Outlook Pst
Tamela Mckane
So I want to walk you through some of the topics that we covered in the outlook, some of which we'll discuss on the podcast today and some of which we'll discuss on a couple of podcasts being rolled out over the next couple of weeks. So what are the topics? Let's say we cover some really important leading indicators, which I think had a large role to play in the Fed changing its tune, the uninflation monitor that also is tied into the same thing.
I've been working on this for a little bit. And I thought it was interesting to include it here in the outlook instead of having it on a standalone basis. Maybe we'll issue it on a standalone basis later in the year. And then in honor of Byron Wien, who passed away last year at the age of 90, Byron used to publish a top-10 surprise list every year. In his honor, I'm going to do one this year as well.
So let's get into the details here. The first chart we have in the outlook is by far the messiest chart I have ever created. But it's worth it. I promise, it's worth it because what it shows is the seven post-war recessions that took place and the sequencing of when things hit bottom, whether they were the equity markets or payrolls or housing starts, default rates, the ISM surveys, GDP. And what you can see here is that with the exception of the.dot.com cycle in 2001, equities bottomed way before the worst readings on the other stuff.
Now the two biggest reasons, I think, why we haven't had a recession yet in spite of a whole lot of Fed tightening is shown in a couple of charts we have in the outlook, one of which looks at corporate interest payments and the other one looks at the corporate-sector financial balance. So normally, two things happen when the Fed raises rates. Number one, it catches the corporate sector off balance.
And we have an antitrust monitor in the outlook. If you're not familiar with some of the concepts I'm about to rattle off, you probably should be because of how important they are. So in the antitrust monitor, we get into the issue of traffic-acquisition costs, which are the tens of billions of dollars a year that Google pays to Apple in exchange for having prime placement on those devices of Google search engines and play stores and things like that.
And we have a chart in the outlook that shows that the Treasury has fallen behind on issuance. It's at a very high level in terms of the T-bill share of total debt. The Fed's buying less. And the banks are buying less because they're already overloaded with too many underwater treasuries. So all things being equal, some of the financing pressures, I think, might push 10-year treasuries back closer to 5%, at which point, I think they would represent pretty good value.
So I want to walk you through some of the topics that we covered in the outlook, some of which we'll discuss on the podcast today and some of which we'll discuss on a couple of podcasts being rolled out over the next couple of weeks.
The first chart we have in the outlook is by far the messiest chart I have ever created. But it's worth it. I promise, it's worth it because what it shows is the seven post-war recessions that took place and the sequencing of when things hit bottom, whether they were the equity markets or payrolls or housing starts, default rates, the ISM surveys, GDP. And what you can see here is that with the exception of the.dot.com cycle in 2001, equities bottomed way before the worst readings on the other stuff.
The 2023 Energy Outlook, published in January, uses three scenarios: Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum, to discuss the outlook for different fuels and energy sources, such as oil, natural gas, renewables and low-carbon hydrogen.
CRW's CFS-based Outlook predicts the likelihood of coral bleaching heat stress up to four months in the future (typical length of a bleaching season). Four-month composite outlook maps of six variables are displayed on this page. Outlooks of the six variables that predict potential heat stress conditions for each week during the target four-month period, and that thefour-month composite outlooks are derived from, are accessible through the "Weekly Outlook" linksprovided to the right of the corresponding composite maps. The CFSv2 provides 16 forecast runs per day (nine 45-day forecast runs, three 90-day forecast runs, and four 9-month forecast runs). From these, CRW constructs between 28 and 112 ensemble members at a weekly time scale for its probabilistic outlooks. 112 members are included for future Weeks 1-5, 49 members for Weeks 6-12, and 28 members for Weeks 13-36 with Week 1 being the first future week predicted. The Outlook is updated weekly on Tuesday of Week 1. Details of the six maps are described below. The relationship between the predicted heat stress and potential bleaching severity is based on CRW's pre-defined levels for its satellite coral bleaching heat stress monitoring, as follows:
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