UBI in Iran
Helen Dew
Greetings all,
This Iranian study of UBI is most encouraging!
It clearly shifts the burden of proof to those who claim a negative effect of UBI on labour.
Feel free to share.
Cheers,
Helen
Helen Dew
LIVING ECONOMIES Educational Trust
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Living Economies promotes and supports interest-free systems of exchange to complement money in local communities.
From: Nicole Foss [mailto:nmf...@gmail.com]
Sent: Monday, 5 June 2017 6:41 a.m.
To: bo...@livingeconomies.nz
Subject: FYI: UBI in Iran
http://erf.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/1090.pdf
Sent from my iPad
Lowell Manning
Thanks Helen.
I had a good skim through it without analysing all the detail.
It seems to me the main impact is economic.
So you give cash to people because major subsidies on bread and fuel were removed.
Of course people would spend a lot of the cash on bread and fuel …. Otherwise they wouldn’t be able to afford much of those items. They wouldn’t eat so much and wouldn’t cook so much or heat their homes so much ….
What happened in practice if I’m reading the paper right is that most of the cash value of the handouts was eroded by subsequent price inflation leading to little net cash gain and quite possibly cash loss over time. That process also coincided with sanctions possibly masking any effect, especially for the poor.
If that is the case, I’m not sure the study isn’t in part a circular argument. As their net purchasing power was eroded most people couldn’t afford not to remain at work even if the cash grants give them more control over their spending. So I wouldn’t expect any change in the hours of work though I would perhaps expect to see other BI – related benefits that the paper doesn’t touch upon.
The 20-29 age group outcome is interesting though and I think it might be related to Iranian family structure. I don’t know about Iran but I have read good books about Turkey where young people tend to stay at home until they marry and sometimes afterward. Their work outcome then depends on the cash contribution the young people make to running the household. In a country where a lot of work is informal I can imagine young men especially would use some of the cash to enjoy life instead of going to work even though that means freeloading on others in the household.
I guess at the moment I’m slightly less enthusiastic about the paper than you are.
Best
Lowell
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