Fwd: NBEOC Advisory - NOAA Weather Update - 23 Jan 16 - 1630 hrs EST
Mike Chumer
From: FEMA-NRCC-NBEOC, <FEMA-NR...@fema.dhs.gov>
Date: Sat, Jan 23, 2016 at 6:11 PM
Subject: NBEOC Advisory - NOAA Weather Update - 23 Jan 16 - 1630 hrs EST
To:
Cc: "Glenn, Robert" <robert...@fema.dhs.gov>, "Rivera, Lori" <Lori....@fema.dhs.gov>, "Evenson, Jonathan" <jonathan...@fema.dhs.gov>, "Lizama, Jose" <jose....@fema.dhs.gov>, "George, Kysa" <Kysa....@fema.dhs.gov>
Record-Breaking Winter Storm Continues to Impact Eastern U.S.
(Next Scheduled Update: Sunday Afternoon, January 24)
Event Overview:
A powerful storm system brought significant winter weather in the form of freezing rain, sleet and heavy to intense snow to the eastern U.S., especially from the central/southern Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England states. This storm will be slow to depart the region, with wintry precipitation persisting through late tonight or Sunday morning. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 feet will be focused across the high terrain of WV/VA/MD and along the Interstate 95 corridor from Washington, D.C. to New York City, NY. Some areas have already approached or exceeded record accumulations during this event. Meanwhile, strong winds will allow blizzard or near blizzard conditions to linger in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England through late tonight, with coastal flooding also a concern along the coastline, particularly from the Outer Banks of NC to NY. Widespread, major impacts in the form of travel disruptions, coastal beach erosion and flood damage, and scattered power outages have been felt throughout the eastern U.S., and this will likely continue into Sunday.
This storm system will pull away from the East Coast by Sunday afternoon, although gusty winds will remain in place through much of the day. A weaker storm system will bring light rain or snow showers to the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. High temperatures are forecast to climb above freezing for most locales through the upcoming work week.
Storm Details:
The following weather hazards are possible for the remainder of the event:
- Heavy Snowfall:
- Through late tonight, an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow is likely from northeast VA to New York City, NY, while 4 to 8 inches are likely along eastern Long Island through southeast MA.
- Total snowfall accumulations along the Interstate 95 corridor from Washington, D.C. to New London, CT will range from 1 to 2 feet, with upwards of 3 feet in the higher terrain of WV and western VA/MD. Some areas impacted by the heaviest snowfall have approached or exceeded 1- or 2-day records values.
- Winds:
- Wind gusts of 40 to 65 mph are likely across the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, highest near the coast.
- Strong winds coupled with heavy snow will cause blizzard or near blizzard conditions with visibilities near zero at times. Snow drifts of 2 to 4 feet are possible in those areas with the heaviest snow and strongest winds.
- Coastal Flooding: Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet due to strong winds and astronomical high tides will lead to significant coastal flooding and beach erosion along the Atlantic Coast, particularly for some areas between Cape Hatteras to central Long Island. As a result, widespread moderate to major coastal flooding will occur this evening/tonight and possibly again for the Sunday morning high tide cycle.
Additional Potential Impacts:
The following additional impacts are possible for the remainder of the event:
- Surface and air travel are severely limited if not impossible throughout the region, and this will persist into Sunday. It could take several days for secondary roads to be cleared as a result of this storm.
- Heavy snow coupled with strong winds may be enough to down trees and power lines in the region, leading to power outages. The weight of heavy, wet snow has already collapsed several roofs of vulnerable structures, and this threat will continue into early next week.
- Numerous coastal roads will flood again, and minor to moderate property damage is possible. The tides and wave action will likely result in significant beach erosion.
Observed Weather Conditions (as of 4:00 p.m. EST Saturday):
- Highest Snowfall Reports by State:
- 40.0 inches at Glengary, WV
- 38.0 inches at Redhouse, MD
- 33.0 inches at Winchester, VA
- 23.5 inches at Washington Dulles Airport
- 14.9 inches at Washington Reagan Airport
- 32.0 inches at Cairnbrook, PA
- 22.0 inches at Booneville, KY
- 19.6 inches at Roselle, NJ
- 19.0 inches at Old Fort, NC
- 18.5 inches at Chevy Chase Village in Washington, D.C.
- 17.0 inches at Graysville, OH
- 16.5 inches at Sunnyside, NY
- 13.5 inches at Lafayette, TN
- 12.1 inches near Dover, DE
- 8.0 inches at Block Island, RI
- 7.5 inches at Inman, SC
- 6.5 inches at Darien, CT
- Highest Freezing Rain Reports by State:
- 0.50 inch near Fort Mill, SC
- 0.40 inch at Sanford, NC
- 0.30 inch at Mozelle and near Bowling Green, KY
- 0.25 inch at Paragould, AR
- 0.25 inch at Nathalie, VA
- 0.23 inch near Clarksville, TN
- Highest Peak Wind Gust Reports by State:
- 75 mph at Dewey Beach, DE
- 75 mph at Langley Air Force Base, VA
- 62 mph at West Ocean City, MD
- 61 mph at Ocean City, NJ
NWS Watches and Warnings in Effect (as of 4:00 p.m. EST Saturday):
- Blizzard Warnings are in effect through Sunday morning from central VA to coastal CT and Block Island, RI, including the National Capital Region, Baltimore, MD, Philadelphia, PA, Trenton, NJ, New York City, NY, and New Haven, CT. This impacts nearly 35 million citizens.
- Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for eastern KY/TN, parts of NC, much of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England states. This impacts nearly 20 million citizens.
- Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect along portions of the Atlantic coast from the Outer Banks of NC to central Long Island through Sunday morning.
National Capital Region (NCR):
Blizzard Warning remains in effect for the entire NCR through 6:00 a.m. EST Sunday.
Heavy snow and blowing snow will persist through late tonight. Total snowfall accumulations of 18 to 24 inches are expected east of Interstate 95, with higher amounts of 24 to 28 inches expected west of Interstate 95. This amount of snow will likely approach or exceed local records. North winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph are expected, leading to visibilities near zero at times in whiteout conditions. Travel is impossible across the region. Temperatures will be in the middle 20s, with wind chill values around 10 degrees. Rain showers are forecast Tuesday into Tuesday night, but rainfall amounts should generally be under one-quarter of an inch.
NWS Estimated Observed 48-Hour Snowfall as of 7:00 a.m. EST Saturday, January 23, 2016 - Link
NWS Forecast Additional Snowfall Valid through 7:00 p.m. EST Tuesday, January 26, 2016 - Link
NWS Forecast Maximum Forecast Wind Gusts Valid through 7:00 p.m. EST Monday, January 25, 2016 -Link
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