Re: PS5 Could Help Propel Sony To Six Million Consoles Sold By Next March
Mirthe Luria
We're still waiting on an official announcement of the PS5, but that doesn't mean there aren't already massive expectations for the future console. Many of those predictions are centered around the design, the performance, and the price, but some are on sales figures. One analyst from Japanese research firm Ace Research Institute suggests Sony could sell six million units by March 2021, reports Tom's Guide.
PS5 could help propel Sony to six million consoles sold by next March
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That six million unit figure isn't just for the PS5, though. It also takes into account sales of Sony's PS4. Given that the PS5 isn't available yet, it makes sense to continue including the current model in the year-long sales estimate. Though, as PS4 sales are expected to continue winding down, the majority of those sales are expected from the PS5. The analyst's report also suggests Sony will sell 15 million more PS5 units in the subsequent year.
It's not so unfair to have huge PS5 sales expectations given the PS4 has been so popular that it became the second bestselling console of all time. By the numbers, the PS4 has sold over 108 million units since its launch in late 2013, and it managed 7.5 million sales in its first two fiscal quarters on the market. If the PS5 launches late into 2020, the predicted sales figures would line up well with what the PS4 managed.
The expectation of 15 million PS5 sales in Sony's following fiscal year from March 2021 to March 2022 would also line up with the 14.8 million units the PS4 sold during its first full fiscal year on the market.
Those are some high expectations for a product that is still shrowding in mystery and a certain level of uncertainty. The recent coronavirus outbreak is expected to have some impact on the tech market given that plenty of the manufacturing and supplying of chips and other components happens in China. The PS5 and Xbox Series X are both expected to need chunk of the flash storage and DRAM market, which could be squeezed by the virus outbreak.
Any shortages might also drive up the price of the PS5, and we've recently learned that many gamers will prioritize next-gen console price above all else. A sky-high price could flatten those sales expectations. If the consoles start inching high enough, it's possible they could even start to drive more gamers to gaming PCs that can outperform consoles.
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Psychonauts 2 occupies this open space in the industry as a fantastic action platformer not based on a furry mascot, cartoon character or Italian plumber. Its content is much more nuanced than standard adventure games, its environments more daring and jokes hit that much harder.
Boss fights are far superior to individual combat encounters with fodder enemies. These were always surprising and had mechanics specific to a given area. One would require flinging objects at certain targets with Telekinesis, another asked the player to grapple around the arena in order to output damage. A couple were anticlimactic in the end. Which happens when there are this many, I suppose.
Industry tracking firm The NPD Group shared its latest U.S. monthly sales report this morning. In which, all signs point to continued momentum especially within hardware, even considering tight supply conditions limiting inventories in the market for next generation consoles from Sony and Microsoft. This and content spending increases notably for mobile, subscriptions and post-launch are likely bolstered by returning mandates hitting the country as variants of coronavirus spread.
As I mentioned above, it was a record July month for overall monthly domestic spending on games at $4.6 billion. When expanding to 2021 as a whole, total video game sales rose 14% to $33.5 billion across the first seven months. Gaming is still the preeminent entertainment experience, especially as platform holders delve more into the subscription side appealing to folks with both traditional and on-the-go devices.
The last of the new releases within the Top 20 was Neo: The World Ends With You debuting at #16. Launch month dollar sales of the Square Enix-published release started at more than double that of The World Ends With You for Nintendo DS in July 2007.
Not to be outdone by its counterparts, spending on Accessories just set a new July record. Last year, July 2020 dollar spend was around $170 million. This year, July sales reached its brand new all-time high of $189 million.
Lately Nintendo has also reported sell-through to consumers, which represents actual ownership in households. As of June, Switch family sell-thru hit 85 million consoles. This is up from 81 million in the quarter ending March 2021. That means upwards of 96% of all shipments have been purchased at retail to date.
The last new launch of the first quarter was the role-playing game Miitopia on May 21st. The remastered version of the 2017 3DS game of the same name barely crossed the million mark, reaching 1.04 million. This is almost as much as the original scored during its first three years at 1.18 million, another rough estimate of course.
On regional splits, the Americas hit nearly 44% of overall dollars sales for Nintendo. Europe up next at 24%, then Japan around 22%. Which means the proportion of sales outside of Japan is upwards of 78%. This is a notable shift towards the Americas, which itself made up 38% last year.
Diving into updated software sales, Nintendo said 45.29 million copies sold on Switch during Q1 as compared to 50.43 million last year. Around a 10% decline, primarily due to the overwhelming success of the new mainline Animal Crossing a year ago.
Nintendo shared that nine games sold a million or more copies on Switch during April to June alone, seven of them first party exclusives. That overall figure is the same number as this time last year.
Taking a look ahead, Nintendo reiterated its forecast for the current year when it comes to financial performance, consoles sold and software units. As often happens during its first quarter, especially as this management team leans towards a conservative nature.
During fiscal 2022, net annual sales are still expected to be $14.4 billion while operating profit will be at $4.5 billion. These would be down 9% and 22% respectively, yet still a major result looking back many years. Switch hardware guidance is flat at 25.5 million for the year, implying that Nintendo needs to ship just over 21 million more during the next three quarters.
The latest gaming manufacturer to report earnings is Sony Corp, this time sharing fiscal 2021 first quarter results. During which the Japanese company revealed its PlayStation division recorded its highest first quarter sales ever even as PlayStation 5 shipments slightly lag its predecessor. Though sell-through to consumers for this latest generation of hardware is still going at a faster pace, driving gaming segment results for the consumer tech conglomerate.
On the software and engagement side, Sony shared new figures for game sales, PlayStation Plus subscriptions plus Monthly Active Users (MAUs) in its supplementary filing, the last of which is the estimated number of unique accounts that uses PlayStation Network during June 2021.
Full-game software sales totaled 63.6 million across PlayStation 5 and PlayStation 4 during the quarter, substantially lower than the 91.4 million during Q1 last year. Within this, 10.5 million were first party exclusives, down from 18.7 million.
Paid PlayStation Plus subscriptions reached 46.3 million from an even 45 million last year, while MAUs were down to 104 million from 114 million. This movement shows a bit lower average engagement, though it looks like new console owners are signing up for the PlayStation Plus service that allows online multiplayer and provides access to certain games each month.
Back to Sony and looking ahead, the company provided updated 2021 fiscal year forecasts for its overall and segment operations. Sales guidance remained unchanged for the company overall at $89 billion, though it did boost operating profit by 5% to upwards of $9 billion. Within gaming, it confirmed annual guidance of $26.5 billion in revenue and $3 billion in profit. The former would be a record and the latter I believe the second best in its history, revealing just how bullish the Sony team is on the modern PlayStation brand.
Leadership also reiterated that it still expects to ship 14.8 million PlayStation 5 consoles during the financial year ending March 2022, which would be the same as PlayStation 4. This implies lifetime PlayStation 5 consoles would be 22.6 million after its first six quarters, slightly outpacing the 22.4 million of PlayStation 4.
Broadly speaking on the topic of looking forward, there were slides and additional comments related to general strategy that stood out from management too, consistent with recent trends of company spending and approach.
Certain games transcend their genre, executing so well on a single vision that they cement a lasting legacy within the broader medium. Roman murder mystery The Forgotten City should be one such title, a masterclass in cause-and-effect storytelling, dialogue writing, time loop manipulation, artistic vision and rewarding player decision-making.
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