Dear Bernard,
I quite agree that CCS on gas plants makes both
technical and moral sense to meet UK CO2 targets, DECC's 'obsessing' on
just the coal plants (a shrinking minority) has always seemed illogical
to me.
But until the recent US shale gas recovery technnolgy reaching break-even
costs, it was widely assumed for fuel planning purposes that gas would become
progressively more expensive relative to coal. Clearly, a significant re-think
is now in order, and is happening (power Co's aren't stupid where cost/profit is
concerned!)
However, current reality/DECC policy is as follows:
The owners of current existing UK coal plants will
continue to want to run those ones (about half or less, rest will close
voluntarily) on which they can still make profit after paying
for additional 'life-extension' mod's, and for SCR de-NOx, FGD etc to meet the
needs of the EU IED Directive (2021 target date). Neither that Directive nor
DECC require them to fit CCS to deal with CO2 as well - in DECC's current
thinking, CCS will only be mandated (if at all!) on new-build
coal plants, at some unspecified date in the future after it has been
'economically proven' (leaving both DECC and the Power Co's lots of
'wiggle-room').
DECC 'is just thinking' about including 1 gas plant
in the delayed phase 2 (plants 2-4) of the subsidised CCS demo
programme http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/news/PN10_117/PN10_117.aspx (wow!-movement!)
after some 'kicking' by the I Mech E and the CCC, but currently, CCS is not
mandated on any new gas plant, which are being sanctioned right now 'to stop the
lights going out' as older coal and nukes close in 2016/ 2021.
DECC seems to have no strong view on whether the UK
based power Co's burn coal or gas - no sign of a national strategy, they still
want the market to decide. I think they would vaguely like to retain at least
some coal in the mix for sensible fuel diversity (security) reasons in case of a
major stoppage incident of the UK gas network.
At current gas prices, what's a 'no-brainer'
is to build a gas plant with no CCS (not mandated, although a study for
being CCS 'capture-ready' is) vs. a new coal plant with CCS. This
is exactly what the market is doing, 'in spades' - EON have withdrawn
Kingsnorth and a big fleet of new non-CCS gas CCGT plants are being granted
permits. But how long this cheap gas 'bubble' (relative to world coal
prices) will last is unclear, because the delivery rate of these new
shale gas fields (if not their total reserves) has been significantly
'over-hyped' by even the 'serious' technical media, also the EPA are taking a
serious look at the pollution problems arising from their 'frac-ing' operations.
There is still a significant likelihood that it will not last for the entire
lifetime of these new gas plants.
I am not aware (that might be ignorance) of any sizeable economically
workable deposits of shale gas in Northern Ireland or Poland, though there
are plenty of folk out looking! The possible economically workable
shale gas (and coal-bed methane) reserve is simply unknown at
present - could be very large.
By the way,there is one technical issue with CCS on gas plants, that the
higher free oxygen in their exhaust tends to attack conventional amine solvents,
but it has been done - the Bellingham GT plant in Massachusetts
ran for its complete 15 years life cycle (- oh yes, carbon Capture
has been done!).
Regards, Chris.