Organizations have proposed plans for a human mission to Mars, the first step towards any colonization effort, but thus far no person has set foot on the planet, and there have been no return missions. However, landers and rovers have successfully explored the planetary surface and delivered information about conditions on the ground.
Most of the human mission concepts as currently conceived by national governmental space programs would not be direct precursors to colonization. Programs such as those being tentatively planned by NASA, Roscosmos, and ESA are intended solely as exploration missions, with the establishment of a permanent base possible but not yet the main goal.[citation needed]
Colonization requires the establishment of permanent habitats that have the potential for self-expansion and self-sustenance. Two early proposals for building habitats on Mars are the Mars Direct and the Semi-Direct concepts, advocated by Robert Zubrin, an advocate of the colonization of Mars.[1]
Communications with Earth are relatively straightforward during the half-sol when Earth is above the Martian horizon. NASA and ESA included communications relay equipment in several of the Mars orbiters, so Mars already has communications satellites. While these will eventually wear out, additional orbiters with communication relay capability are likely to be launched before any colonization expeditions are mounted.
Another main inter-Martian trade good during early colonization could be manure.[89] Assuming that life does not exist on Mars, the soil is going to be very poor for growing plants, so manure and other fertilizers will be valued highly in any Martian civilization until the planet changes enough chemically to support growing vegetation on its own.
Space colonization on Mars can roughly be said to be possible when the necessary methods of space colonization become cheap enough (such as space access by cheaper launch systems) to meet the cumulative funds that have been gathered for the purpose.
Although there are no immediate prospects for the large amounts of money required for any space colonization to be available given traditional launch costs,[91] there is some prospect of a radical reduction to launch costs in the 2020s, which would consequently lessen the cost of any efforts in that direction. With a published price of US$62 million per launch of up to 22,800 kg (50,300 lb) payload to low Earth orbit or 4,020 kg (8,860 lb) to Mars,[92] SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets are already the "cheapest in the industry".[93] SpaceX's reusable plans include Falcon Heavy and future methane-based launch vehicles including the Starship. If SpaceX is successful in developing the reusable technology, it would be expected to "have a major impact on the cost of access to space", and change the increasingly competitive market in space launch services.[94]
Alternative funding approaches might include the creation of inducement prizes. For example, the 2004 President's Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy suggested that an inducement prize contest should be established, perhaps by government, for the achievement of space colonization. One example provided was offering a prize to the first organization to place humans on the Moon and sustain them for a fixed period before they return to Earth.[95]
Since Mars is much closer to the asteroid belt than Earth is, it would take less Delta-v to get to the Asteroid belt and return minerals to Mars. One hypothesis is that the Moons of Mars (Phobos and Deimos) are actually Asteroid captures from the Asteroid belt.[96] 16 Psyche in the main belt could have over $10,000 Quadrillion Dollars worth of minerals. NASA is planning a mission for October 10, 2023 for the Psyche orbiter to launch and get to the asteroid by August 2029 to study.[97] 511 Davida could have $27 quadrillion Dollars worth of minerals and resources.[98] Using the moon Phobos to launch spacecraft is energetically favorable and a useful location from which to dispatch missions to main belt asteroids.[99] Mining the asteroid belt from Mars and its moons could help in the colonization of Mars.[100][101][102]
Space colonization in general has been discussed as continuation of imperialism and colonialism,[120] especially regarding Mars colonial decision making and reasons for colonial labor[121] and land exploitation have been questioned with postcolonial critique. Seeing the need for inclusive[122] and democratic participation and implementation of any space and Mars exploration, infrastructure, or colonialization, many have called for dramatic sociological reforms and guarantees to prevent racism, sexism, and other forms of prejudice.[123]
Mars colonization is advocated by several non-governmental groups for a range of reasons and with varied proposals. One of the oldest groups is the Mars Society who promote a NASA program to accomplish human exploration of Mars and have set up Mars analog research stations in Canada and the United States. Mars to Stay advocates recycling emergency return vehicles into permanent settlements as soon as initial explorers determine permanent habitation is possible.
Author Robert Zubrin has been a major advocate for Mars exploration and colonization for many years. He is a member of the Mars society and has authored several fiction and nonfiction books about the subject. In 1996 he wrote The Case for Mars: The Plan to Settle the Red Planet and Why We Must. He continues to advocate for Mars and space exploration with his most recent book being The Case for Space: How the Revolution in Spaceflight Opens Up a Future of Limitless Possibility.
There are critics of the project of Mars colonization. American political scientist Daniel Deudney has argued that a fully developed Mars colony represents an existential threat to humans remaining on Earth. His book, Dark Skies: Space Expansionism, Planetary Geopolitics, and the Ends of Humanity, challenges the widespread view among advocates that a Mars colony would be friendly to the interests of humans still on Earth.[136] According to Deudney, this is merely an assumption based on the largely unexamined claim that a future Mars colony will be a straightforward extension of civilization on Earth, rather than a completely new kind of civilization with distinct goals, values, fears and desires.
Intense efforts by the world's space agencies and more recently, private enterprises have brought us ever closer to having broad technical capabilities to transport a small number of colonizers and equipment to Mars. These capabilities have been discussed in detail in several comprehensive review and opinion articles that describe various opportunities and challenges facing the Mars settlement program.6 Proponents of Mars colonization consider present space technology as nearing the stage when it will be able to provide the necessary level of reliability and efficiency required for the one way journey from Earth to Mars. Indeed, a recent example of successful firing of thrusters on Voyager 1 after 37 years of space operation7 attests to our ability to overcome such significant challenges of spacecraft development8, 9 as longevity, reliability, and operational readiness decades after launching. Ongoing advances in nanotechnology and materials engineering enhanced reliability and expanded functionality of contemporary electronics and robotics while reducing device mass, volume, and power consumption.10 The affordability of small space assets has enabled greater exploration of space, allowing space agencies, universities, and commercial players to collect vital information about extraterrestrial environments in which space assets and living subject will be required to operate, guiding and informing the development of colonization programs.11
Even in the absence of native life forms, there is an obligation for the colonists to attempt to preserve where possible the unspoiled alien environment, to ensure our sustained survival on the Red Planet. Yet, it is unclear how these ideas of preservation of native environment would balance those of terraforming of Mars through global engineering to make its surface and climate hospitable to humans. If attainable, the latter would make colonization of Mars safer and more sustainable.64 Clearly, it would not be possible to transport all the raw materials required for sustained growth and operation of a colony from Earth. Thus, these would have to be extracted from Martian environment, inevitably changing it.
It is evident that at present any potential revenue derived from the mission centers on selling the unique historic experience of sending humans to Mars, rather than from discovery and extraction of resources. There have been speculations by Mars colonization enthusiasts, such as Walker and Zubrin that it may be possible for Mars colony to become profitable by exploiting vast domestic resources of deuterium, which can be used as fuel for fusion reactors.69 Yet others, including Musk, argue that it is unlikely that Mars would offer anything material that would be financially viable to export to Earth.70
So, what might be the major benefit of Mars exploration? Should we not start by fixing our own planet and learning from this experience before attempting to conquer another outpost? Stratford tackles this notion from a different angle, and proposes to consider Mars colonization as a stimulus that is desperately needed by our contemporary society to move forward and once again regain our ability to tackle pressing problems head on:
Once the exclusive province of science fiction stories and films, the subject of space colonization has rapidly moved several steps closer to becoming a reality thanks to major advances in rocket propulsion and design, astronautics and astrophysics, robotics and medicine. The urgency to establish humanity as a multi-planet species has been re-validated by the emergence of a worldwide pandemic, one of several reasons including both natural and man-made catastrophes long espoused in the pro-colonization rhetoric.
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