Preventing Conflict Over Kurdistan

[DRoshani]

By Henri J. Barkey
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

The consequences of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq will doubtless be
debated for years to come. One result, however, is already clear: the
long suppressed nationalist aspirations of the Kurdish people now
dispersed across four states--Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and Syria--have been
aroused, perhaps irrevocably, by the war. Already in Iraq, Kurdish
regions, which have benefited from Saddam Hussein's overthrow, have
consolidated themselves into a federal region. The Kurdistan Regional
Government (KRG) is a reality and a force for further Kurdish
empowerment as it seeks to incorporate other Kurdish-majority areas
and the oil-rich Kirkuk province in particular into its domain. The
KRG's existence and demands have already alarmed all of Iraq's
neighbors and the Baghdad government. The issues are far from being
settled. If ignored or badly handled, Kurdish aspirations have the
potential to cause considerable instability and violence in Iraq and
beyond at a particularly delicate time.

For the United States, the Kurdish issue touches on many vital
concerns--the future unity and stability of Iraq and the ability of
U.S. combat forces to disengage responsibly; its relations with
Turkey, a key North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally and
aspirant for European Union (EU) membership; and more generally, the
stability of an oil-rich region during a period of considerable
uncertainty over energy security. This report argues that Washington
must pay close attention to the many intertwined dimensions of the
Kurdish question and, in particular, to the very real potential for
conflict and outside intervention. Washington must develop a
comprehensive approach that recognizes and, where possible, leverages
those linkages to help usher in a stable and prosperous future. This
report does not suggest that the many facets of the Kurdish issue can
only be solved simultaneously, but rather that Washington has to be
sensitive to how potential progress--and setbacks--in one area can
affect movement elsewhere. Of primary importance should be settling
Kirkuk's future and consolidating the legitimacy of Iraq's federal
structure. Closely related is the development of a working
relationship between Ankara and the Kurdistan Regional Government.

Click here for the full report http://www.aina.org/reports/pcok.pdf