There are a number of methods to predict your potential time at a distance from a distance and time you already know or have achieved. Some require some solid math and patience (especially for the math-challenged). Other approaches use a chart that you just look up your corresponding distances/times. And of course, some are put online and take the mental gymnastics out of it. There are actually quite a few formulas available. But this should give you an introduction to using them.
Jeff Galloway uses the following method. It is based on personal data and experience. Take your one mile time and adjust it as follows: add 33 seconds for your pace for a 5K; or multiply it by 1.15 for 10K pace; or multiply by it by 1.2 for half marathon pace; or you can multiply it by 1.3 for marathon pace. So, if you run a 8:00 mile this system estimate that you could run 8:33 per mile for 5K or 26:30. It is limited to those distances but you could interpolate intermediate distances/times.
A scientific method based on research of many elite runners as well as supported in many research studies is to use a percentage of your vVO2max. You can find this pace by doing a 6:00-7:00 time trial. The research varies a bit depending on whether we are measuring elite or completely non-conditioned runners (from 4:00 to as much as 8:30, with most of us falling in between and the most common number used is 6:00). Personally, as a coach I use a 1600 or 2000 meter time trial depending on the caliber of the runner. With this method you divide your per mile pace by the percentage of VO2max attained by well trained individuals to get your projected pace. You divide by .95 for 5k, .90 for 10k, .80 for the marathon. Marathon times vary widely depending on level of ability and conditioning however. If you time trial yielded 8:00 then your projected 5k pace is 8:25/mile or 26:06 for the 5k. It is also limited but you could interpolate intermediate distances/times.
As you can see, these are reasonable projections and each offer similar times. (26:02, 26:06, 26:30, 26:32) You will find variations in calculations as distances move up or down. Some will seem more accurate on distances that are close together (i.e. 5k projected to 10k) and less accurate the larger the gap (i.e. mile to marathon). You will probably find one method or formula that just is easier to use.
A real mis-use of these calculations is to take them as gospel. The five assumptions I listed are seldom attained. Therefore, it will be rare these are absolutely precise. In any event they can do several very beneficial things.
Your mileage is more than sufficient. For a 3:00-3:30 marathoner only a few weeks and only a few runners need to be at 80k (50 miles) per week. Most all my runners are 55-70K per week (35-45 miles). A critical element in marathon training is goal paced running. Your goal pace is for sub-3:39 (about 5:10/k or 8:18/mile). Doing more runs at that pace and less miles will serve you far better. Efficiency in running is pace-specific. By the way a little known fact: older runners will benefit more (i.e. get in better condition) from higher quality running than from adding more miles.
I was sent these shoes to test out, and I did so over a period of several weeks on a variety of surfaces in Maine. This included paved and gravel roads as well as trails in varying wet and dry conditions. All told, I put about 150 miles on these shoes as of the time of this review.
Joe used these shoes guiding backpacking trips in West Virginia and Yosemite and training on a combination of road and trails in Seattle. Additionally, Joe won the Dark Divide 50k in these shoes. All-in-all, he put in about 250 miles of running and 100 miles of hiking at the time of this review.
Columbia hit the mark in many ways with the Escape Ascents. They are lightweight, responsive, and comfortable in a way that many trail shoes are not. There are a lot of impressive features packed in, yet they managed to keep from overbuilding the shoe and weighing it down with unnecessary junk.
Nevertheless, the Escape Ascents are a solid shoe that fill a need and perform well on dirt or gravel roads and trails where you can really put its features to use. I plan to continue using them for speedwork and endurance runs where the terrain is manageable and I need every advantage I can get.
Brandon Chase is a writer, endurance athlete, and guide based in Maine. He is a former Foreign Service Officer with the U.S. Department of State and spent nearly a decade overseas serving at embassies in Egypt, Cyprus, and Pakistan.
Along with a 98-day thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, he has summited Mt. Kilimanjaro, hiked the West Highland Way, fastpacked in the Himalayas, and trekked around New Zealand and South Africa. He also regularly competes in ultramarathons at the 50k, 50-mile, and 100-mile distances.
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I was reflecting on my running journey after completing my 3rd half marathon this month. I am only now beginning to see myself as a runner. I have even joined a running club! Back in my school days I would do absolutely anything to get out of cross country. The very idea used to fill me with dread. I think it was a combination of the humiliation of running in hideous polyester running briefs together with my beetroot face and heavy panting that used to give me sleepless nights. I even used to make my dad drive me to a field on our farm in the middle of nowhere to practice but I just couldn't seem to breathe and run at the same time and would end up with an burning pain in my chest after what seemed like just a few strides.
Fast forward to 2016 when I was working for a mental health charity and someone suggested I run the Oxford Half Marathon. I had gone for a few short runs a few years earlier and had a lightbulb moment when I realised if I started slowly and breathed in through my nose and out through my mouth I could manage a mile or two. So I signed up and downloaded the Bupa Half Marathon training programme for beginners. I invested in a decent pair of trainers and also had a gait analysis check which was encouraging as I have perfect gait apparently! It was a 3 month programme and I followed most of it and one day I came back after running 10 miles and felt quite emotional. Building up gradually I hadn't noticed the training get much harder and so I was amazed to be able to run that distance. I still looked like a sweaty beetroot but I was a very happy one! The other benefit I found with running is that if I had had a stressful day at work or was feeling overwhelmed, after a run my head would feel so much clearer and I would feel more at ease and relaxed. I also slept much better too! I managed to complete that first race in 2 hours and 40 minutes. The cheering crowds were amazing and the children handing out jelly babies along the route kept my energy levels up. I felt so ecstatic at the finish line and was hoping to keep the running up but a car accident the following month interrupted my training and I took up yoga instead.
Last year I met my partner and he had just completed the London Marathon. I was in awe. I couldn't imagine doing that kind of distance but before long he had encouraged me to get back into running and to sign up for the Hampton Court Half Marathon. I used the same training programme as 6 years previous and in March 2023 on a very cold and wet day we completed the race in a similar time of 2 hours and 40 mins. He ran with me (even though he could have gone much faster) and the last 2 boggy miles were tough but we did it and my love of running had returned. I decided I wanted to push myself a bit harder and aim for a slightly faster time so I signed up to the Oxford Half again. This time I downloaded the intermediate training plan and was introduced to interval runs for the first time. These were really tough but gradually I could see my pace improving and so I continued with them. I ran pretty much the whole 12 week programme (except for a week in Cyprus when the coolest it got was 28c!) and on Sunday 15th October I managed to complete the Oxford Half in 2 hours and 15 mins - shaving a whole 25 mins off of my time which felt incredible. And for the first time, I actually saw myself as a runner.
Running a half marathon is a lot like working with a coach to achieve your goals. You need self-belief, a plan, to invest in the right resources (I can recommend Nike vapor fly trainers!) and then encouragement and support along the journey. I am so lucky to have a supportive partner and running buddy who keeps me running even when I feel like giving up. He knows how to gently encourage me and keep me motivated. We've even semi-run up Snowdon a few times! So whatever your goal - with belief, support, encouragement and a strategy it is possible to achieve whatever you set your mind to. We have just signed up to run an actual marathon next April (not the London one as unfortunately we didn't get in!) but a lovely route around Stratford-upon-Avon. It will be another great running achievement and I'm looking forward to pushing myself outside my comfort zone once again. Because that is where the magic happens!
The 38th MARATHON DES SABLES THE LEGENDARY is a foot race, open to runners and walkers, with several stages, free style, and with food self-sufficiency over a distance of about 250 Km. Each participant must carry his/her own backpack containing food, sleeping gear and other material.
The 38th MARATHON DES SABLES THE LEGENDARY will be administered according to the general race regulations and their amendments (road book, etc.) as well as to the General Terms and Conditions of Sale, to which all participants agree when they register. The General Terms ans Conditions of Sale may be viewed on the institutional website and on the registration website
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