Sinceits independence in 1965, Singapore has seen unprecedented economic and social growth and is now considered a world leader in education, finance, healthcare, logistics, electronic manufacturing and petroleum refinery. This has been accompanied by physical growth through land reclamation, resulting in a 25 per cent increase in landmass since 1984 and a projected further increase of five per cent by 2030.
These projects have delivered a substantially revised and up-to-date interpretation of the geology, including a new International Commission on Stratigraphy-compliant stratigraphy and structural framework. This work is presented in a series of peer-reviewed journal articles and a 3D geological model of Singapore.
This revised understanding of the geology of has important implications for current and future urban development. The additional complexity identified within the bedrock and superficial geology means that highly variable ground-conditions should be anticipated horizontally and vertically at all scales, and in all geological units. However, a better understanding of possible geometrical arrangements of geological units will also allow for better prediction of the nature and distribution of lithologies, discontinuities, alteration, and groundwater, and therefore of the properties in the subsurface and the potential for geological hazards and resources. Application of this new geological understanding to the engineering of buildings and infrastructure, at all stages of urban development, will result in an overall reduction of both risk and cost.
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A prerequisite for sea-level projections is understanding the relationship between changes in the climate and changes in sea level11,12,13. Most instrumental sea-level records, however, are temporally limited to the mid-to-late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries14,15 and capture a sea-level/climate relationship during which anthropogenic forcing dominates4,16,17. This is especially true in Singapore, where near-complete instrumental records only began in the early 1970s (Fig. 2; Table 1). Reconstructions of RSL change based on geological proxies can provide complementary archives, demonstrating the longer-term response of sea level over centuries to millennia to a wider range of climate forcing mechanisms, unforced climate variability, and boundary conditions12,18,19,20,21. Both geological reconstructions and instrumental records, however, share fundamental challenges in understanding spatial and temporal variability driven by processes that cause regional sea level to deviate from the global mean11,13,22,23.
Future sea-level rise in Singapore will primarily be caused by global increases in ocean mass and volume associated with meltwater input from land-based ice sheets and glaciers and thermal expansion to warming temperatures4. Faster-than-projected disintegration of marine ice shelves may also exacerbate sea-level rise through marine ice cliff instability processes111,112 for which there is low confidence4. In contrast, the impact of vertical land motion processes will be negligible due to the tectonic stability and overall low subsidence rates throughout the central Sunda Shelf including Singapore33,34,64.
The Quaternary stratigraphy of Singapore provides evidence of paleoenvironmental change from intertidal sediments and sea-level indicators preserved in paleo channels, coastal deposits and deep-drill boreholes64,73,74,83,85. The natural predeveloped coastline of Singapore was encompassed by extensive coastal to shallow marine ecosystems including coral reefs, intertidal flats, and mangrove forests100,101,102,122. Rapid industrial and urban development during the 20th century, however, has since reduced habitat extent to relatively small remnant patches mainly positioned along northern coastlines and offshore islands (Fig. 1b). The coastal waters surrounding Singapore and in the Johor Strait are relatively shallow (
We compiled existing RSL data from the central Sunda Shelf, Singapore and Mapur Island, Indonesia123 (Fig. 1a, b). The geological reconstructions and instrumental records for the Holocene, including the 20th and 21st century, use RSL data from Singapore31 and Mapur Island, Indonesia32, respectively. Mapur Island has minimal differences in present-day rate of GIA (
The geological RSL reconstructions are based on mangrove root remnants and intertidal deposits26,30,31 and coral microatolls32 that are used as proxy sea-level indicators to develop SLIPs. A SLIP defines the past position of RSL in time and space with an associated vertical and temporal uncertainty13,126. Standardised protocols in the collation and validation of SLIP data75 require four key attributes including: (1) elevation of the sample relative to a modern tidal datum; (2) vertical relationship of the sample to contemporaneous sea level, termed the indicative meaning; (3) age of formation or growth (e.g., through radiometric methods); and (4) geographic location.
We make use of the probabilistic nature of the model-based estimates from the EIV-IGP model to provide perspective to future scenario-based sea-level projections demonstrating the probability of when equivalent rates of RSL rise were last exceeded. Specifically, we use the posterior samples of RSL rise obtained from the EIV-IGP model to estimate the probability that RSL rise in a given year t exceeded sea level projections under various climate scenarios. To estimate the probabilities, we let \(\omega _x^(s)\) be posterior sample s of RSL rise in year x and let \(p_x\) be the probability that RSL rise in year \(x\) was greater than a chosen rate of change (denoted \(\delta\)), such that:
We then used the paleotopographic maps to calculate land area difference compared to the present-day topography and rates of landward lateral shoreline migration across a hypothetical transect extending from the South China Sea toward Singapore (Fig. 4a). While lateral shoreline migration rates may respond to variety of regional and local sedimentary processes, for example, delta progradation, sedimentation and erosion133, our modelled results provide an estimated response of the paleogeographic landscape to rising RSL since the LGM.
We also compare and discuss output from the EIV-IGP model results and RSL datasets from the Sunda Shelf, Vietnam Shelf and Singapore with ICE-6G_C model predictions of RSL change (Supplementary discussion).
T.A.S. and B.P.H. conceptualised the research design of the study. T.A.S. led the data processing and analyses, writing of the manuscript and construction of figures. T.L provided glacial isostatic adjustment model predictions and paleotopographic land change data. N.C aided with statistical modelling and probability perspective analyses. G.G.G. and R.E.K. provided IPCC AR6 sea-level projections. T.L., T.N.G., N.C., S.C., J.M.M., Y.N., G.G.G., R.E.K., T.J.J.H., A.D.S. and B.P.H. provided feedback on the data analyses, interpretation of results and all authors commented on the text.
The authors declare no competing interests. A.S. is an Editorial Board Member for Communications Earth & Environment, but was not involved in the editorial review of, nor the decision to publish this article.
Communications Earth & Environment thanks the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Primary Handling Editors: HL. A peer review file is available.
Dobbs, Marcus; Leslie, Graham; Dodd, Tom; Gillespie, Martin; Kearsey, Timothy; Kendall, Rhian; Bide, Tom. 2022 Urban geological surveying: what lies beneath Singapore? [Lecture] In: CCOP-KIGAM Urban Geology Workshop: Urban Geology Technology Sharing for Sustainable Cities in East and Southeast Asia., Singapore, 20-22 Sept 2022. (Unpublished)
The main purpose of this paper is to collate and review the geological and engineering geological information which is available in Singapore and to present new information which is now available. (TRRL)
A project to establish a 3D geological model in Singapore using available borehole data and other geological/geotechnical data has been initiated. This paper presents the background and procedure adopted for this project. A fence diagram and the resulting 3D geological model for a selected zone in Singapore are presented. Several issues related to the modelling are discussed. The quality and quantity of the borehole data have a direct influence on the accuracy of the 3D model created. A data-cleaning procedure is required to remove typographical errors or duplicates from the database. With a good understanding of the complete geological sequence and the likely geomorphological evolution of the area under study using the constructed fence diagrams, the 3D geological model can be built layer by layer after the geological boundaries have been constructed. The interpreted cross-sections and the constructed fence diagrams can help geologists to have a better understanding of the complex sub-surface profiles in a three dimensional way. It will become a design tool for future city planning and underground constructions.
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