India Stocks Outlook: Volatile next week; Jan-Mar earnings eyed
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B. KARTHICK
Apr 19, 2008, 4:43:56 AM4/19/08
to Kences1
India Stocks Outlook: Volatile next week; Jan-Mar earnings eyed
Saturday, Apr 20
The equity market is likely to see volatile trade next week in
the run-up to the current month futures contract expiry Thursday, and
as investors digest a slew of Jan-Mar earnings from companies.
However, the near term looks bullish. For Nifty, we are looking at
5030 as the next resistance level, and we are around that resistance
level right now. If 5030 is broken, then Nifty could go up to 5350.
However, if Nifty does not cross 5025-5030, then a correction of
100-150
points is likely, around which levels Nifty will find support.
Previous Close, Nifty closed at 4958.40, up 71.10 points, or
1.45%.
Sensex ended at 16481.20, up 237.01 points, or 1.5%, from
Wednesday.
Wednesday, NSE's volatility index or VIX declined nearly 8% from
the previous session.
EARNINGS
Nifty majors Reliance Industries, Tata Consultancy Services,
Maruti
Suzuki, ABB, Siemens, and Ambuja Cements will detail their Jan-Mar
earnings next week.
Jan-Mar earnings of Reliance Industries could influence broad
market trend, and higher-than-expected results may fuel more gains in
share indices.
Reliance Industries' Jan-Mar net profit is seen at 39.40 bln
rupees, up 38% on year, driven by strong refining margins.
Net sales for the fourth quarter are seen at 351.50 bln rupees, up
36% on year, because of the volume growth in petrochemicals.
However, we expect Reliance Industries' shares to ease in coming
sessions after the 4% gain this week.
The main move in Reliance Industries shares has already come. From
a week to 10 days perspective the stock could correct to around 2,500
rupees.
Investors will also eye Jan-Mar earnings of Wipro Friday, which is
likely to have a bearing on sentiment for the technology sector.
Wipro is seen clocking a 6% on-year rise in Jan-Mar consolidated
net profit to 9.05 bln rupees even as investors would focus on
management commentary on demand environment amid concerns over the
health of the US economy.
Earnings and statements from Wipro would determine whether the
recent rally seen in the technology pack would continue.
CNX IT index rose nearly 13% in the last three sessions after
Infosys Technologies Tuesday guided for an earnings per share of
92.32-93.92 rupees for 2008-09 (Apr-Mar), up 16.3-18.3% on year, and
higher than street estimates.
OVERSEAS CUES
Market would also watch for cues from overseas markets, which are
likely to take direction from earnings of Merrill Lynch and Citigroup
on Friday.
Merrill Lynch is likely to report a loss of $1.99 a share, while
Citigroup could post a loss of 95 cents a share.
Investors are still a little cautious (here), and Citigroup's
results
will help give the exact global picture.
K.Karthik Raja.
Research Dept.
Saturday, Apr 20
The equity market is likely to see volatile trade next week in
the run-up to the current month futures contract expiry Thursday, and
as investors digest a slew of Jan-Mar earnings from companies.
However, the near term looks bullish. For Nifty, we are looking at
5030 as the next resistance level, and we are around that resistance
level right now. If 5030 is broken, then Nifty could go up to 5350.
However, if Nifty does not cross 5025-5030, then a correction of
100-150
points is likely, around which levels Nifty will find support.
Previous Close, Nifty closed at 4958.40, up 71.10 points, or
1.45%.
Sensex ended at 16481.20, up 237.01 points, or 1.5%, from
Wednesday.
Wednesday, NSE's volatility index or VIX declined nearly 8% from
the previous session.
EARNINGS
Nifty majors Reliance Industries, Tata Consultancy Services,
Maruti
Suzuki, ABB, Siemens, and Ambuja Cements will detail their Jan-Mar
earnings next week.
Jan-Mar earnings of Reliance Industries could influence broad
market trend, and higher-than-expected results may fuel more gains in
share indices.
Reliance Industries' Jan-Mar net profit is seen at 39.40 bln
rupees, up 38% on year, driven by strong refining margins.
Net sales for the fourth quarter are seen at 351.50 bln rupees, up
36% on year, because of the volume growth in petrochemicals.
However, we expect Reliance Industries' shares to ease in coming
sessions after the 4% gain this week.
The main move in Reliance Industries shares has already come. From
a week to 10 days perspective the stock could correct to around 2,500
rupees.
Investors will also eye Jan-Mar earnings of Wipro Friday, which is
likely to have a bearing on sentiment for the technology sector.
Wipro is seen clocking a 6% on-year rise in Jan-Mar consolidated
net profit to 9.05 bln rupees even as investors would focus on
management commentary on demand environment amid concerns over the
health of the US economy.
Earnings and statements from Wipro would determine whether the
recent rally seen in the technology pack would continue.
CNX IT index rose nearly 13% in the last three sessions after
Infosys Technologies Tuesday guided for an earnings per share of
92.32-93.92 rupees for 2008-09 (Apr-Mar), up 16.3-18.3% on year, and
higher than street estimates.
OVERSEAS CUES
Market would also watch for cues from overseas markets, which are
likely to take direction from earnings of Merrill Lynch and Citigroup
on Friday.
Merrill Lynch is likely to report a loss of $1.99 a share, while
Citigroup could post a loss of 95 cents a share.
Investors are still a little cautious (here), and Citigroup's
results
will help give the exact global picture.
K.Karthik Raja.
Research Dept.
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