Overcall or double

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jerome keslin

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Jan 3, 2022, 1:55:45 AM1/3/22
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Hi, I wonder if anyone could help me with this.
RHO opens with 1 heart.
If one bids 1 spade with:

AQJXX
QXX
KQTX
A

what are the chances of missing a game?

Christopher Monsour

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Jan 3, 2022, 9:12:39 AM1/3/22
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That depends entirely on your partner's style in advancing overcalls.

If you are asking whether you should double first, I'd say this hand is right on the borderline, and I would be comfortable with either decision.  I'd probably bid 1S myself, but it's very close.

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Subject: Overcall or double
 
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judyorcarl

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Jan 3, 2022, 10:06:51 AM1/3/22
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If partner has

xx
Jx
Axxxxx
xxx

you'll wish you doubled.

Will this hand raise diamonds after

1S - 1NT ; 2D - ?

Would overcalled do something stronger than 2D?

The problem with double is what happens if the advance is 3C.

Carl

Fred Curtis

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Jan 3, 2022, 11:49:43 AM1/3/22
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Realistically, 3C response to double is no problem, you just rebid 3S GF.

Odds are hugely against advancer having values for a jump given RHO opening and your 18 HCP…..the issue is you want advancer to bid with most 7+ HCP (& quite a few hands with less eg long D per Carl). 1S overcall will not suffice.

Risk and reward. Perhaps the worst result would occur whe advancer stretches to bid 3C over responder’s raise of H, but that would tend to have a redeeming feature of leaving advancer with short H….

Game bonus is attractive, and slam is not out of the realms of possibility ( eg D with advancer holding DAxxxxx and singleton H) on a hand which would not consider responding to 1S overcall…

 There are huge advantages to holding the boss suit ( consider how much worse had the Majors been reversed and RHO opened 1S)…

 

Fred Curtis

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On 4 Jan 2022, at 2:07 am, 'judyorcarl' via The Kaplan-Sheinwold Bidding System <kaplan-s...@googlegroups.com> wrote:



Fred.

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Jan 3, 2022, 2:17:17 PM1/3/22
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I agree with Chris.  If this hand is within your overcall range, you are likely
to shoot yourself in the foot by doubling.   Otherwise, things are likely to go
the other way.  This hand is not distributional enough to support an overweight
simple overcall.

Playing the style in Edgar Kaplan's Competitive Bidding in Modern Bridge,  Wilshire Book 
Company, 1965, 1S promises the values for a 1S opening.  Advancer strains to bid with 6
or 7 high card points, often less with 3-card support.  Lacking 3-card spade support, advancer
will likely bid 1NT with some help in the heart suit.  A double would strongly suggest short 
hearts where bigger help is required for NT.

Fred.

 

judyorcarl

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Jan 3, 2022, 3:39:39 PM1/3/22
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"Odds are hugely against advancer having values for a jump given RHO opening and your 18 HCP "

Not so. According to the Kaplan book you cite, advancer adds *huge* distributional points:  1-3-5 for shortness outside opener's suit.  *Plus* one pt for a 5th card in a suit  *plus* 2 pts for each additional.

x
xxx
xxx
KQxxxx

After  (1H) - Dbl - (P) - ? this is a *maximum* 3C advance.

Carl


On Monday, January 3, 2022 at 11:49:43 AM UTC-5 Fred Curtis wrote:

Fred.

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Jan 4, 2022, 11:22:21 AM1/4/22
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I agree with your 2D rebid, Carl.  After discounting the heart
queen, intervenor's hand is not quite worth a jump shift, and in
NT there is the question of getting to advancer's likely club values.

As to 3D from advancer, I can't imagine passing 2D with a known
10 card fit headed by the ace, providing the diamond suit with
its own entry.

At match points, intervenor should bid 3NT over 3D based on the 
diamond fit and heart queen.  For this reason, intervenor shouldn't
invite without a likely and protected entry.  when 3NT doesn't make,
a diamond part score will likely score well even if 5D makes.

As it turns out, whenever one of advancer's diamond x's is bigger than
intervenor's diamond X, 3NT seems a better contract than 5D even at imps.

Evaluation in zars, with 57 required for the 5-level, is works well here
at imp scoring:

AQJXX-QXX-KQTX-A
16 HCP with the HQ deprecated
   5 control points
   9 cards in 2 longest suits
   4 longest suit cards less shortest suit cards
   1 for 11+ HCP concentrated in 2 suits
35 zars total, just short of a J/S
Thus, the 2D rebid, with a wide range of 26-35 zars.

xx-Jx-Axxxxx-xxx
 4 HCP with the HJ demoted
 2 control points
 9 cards in 2 longest suits
 4 longest less shortest
19 zars total, with the min response range 16-20 zars
After opener's 2D bid
  1 for the fitting honor in a suit bid by partner
  3 for the 6th diamond (known super-fit)
23 zars adjusted total, with the invitational range 21-25 zars
Thus, a clear raise to 3D.

After 3D, intervenor can see a minimum of 56 partnership
zars, and might bid 4D, but, given the spade tenace behind
opener, should push to 5D and take the pressure off advancer.

I wasn't at all sure what to do over 3D at imps without this
evaluation.

Fred.

Adam Wildavsky

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Jan 5, 2022, 9:31:29 AM1/5/22
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Is this the auction you contemplate, Carl?

1H 1S P 1N
P  ?

If so, 2d seems an underbid to me. I'd rather bid 3N.

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Fred.

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Jan 5, 2022, 10:54:52 AM1/5/22
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Please explain to us why you think 3NT is right.  I like
the spade holding and position, but I'd think advancer
would need a couple of red suit entries to capitalize on
them.  Am I being overly pessimistic when I don't see
the entries on my second call?

Fred.

judyorcarl

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Jan 5, 2022, 2:12:49 PM1/5/22
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If advancer is going to keep the bidding open, what is there but 1NT?

And he'd *better* keep it open if the overcall could be up to an Acol 2!

Carl

On Wednesday, January 5, 2022 at 9:31:29 AM UTC-5 Adam Wildavsky wrote:

Adam Wildavsky

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Jan 6, 2022, 2:22:20 AM1/6/22
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Advancer will try to keep the auction open, but sometimes one has to balance the odds of missing a game with those of turning a plus into a minus. I've always played 1N as constructive. I've seldom gone wrong passing a weak hand with a doubleton (or less) in partner's suit. Opener might take another call, and regret it!

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Adam Wildavsky

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Jan 6, 2022, 2:30:01 AM1/6/22
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I'm do think 3N is right, though when I posted it was only to say that I prefer it to 2d. 2N or 3d could work too. The key is, per my reply to Carl, the strength and composition of advancer's 1N. I play it shows a decent 7 to 10 with a stopper in opener's suit. Overcalled holds 19.40 CCCCs. We have a minimum of 25 HCP and at least two sources of tricks, and declarer has an advantage when one defender holds most of his side's strength. 3N could go down, but there are few guarantees in bridge.

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jerome keslin

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Jan 6, 2022, 2:36:48 AM1/6/22
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For what its worth, Robson and Segal, in their masterpiece, play that the 1nt advance is about 8-11, catering to a light overcall in their methods.

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Christopher Monsour

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Jan 6, 2022, 6:28:58 AM1/6/22
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I think the most common modern ranges here are 7-11 or 8-11.  I know very few people comfortable with bidding 2N over a 1 level overall on 11.  

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Fred.

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Jan 6, 2022, 6:33:13 AM1/6/22
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Thanks, Adam.  Given a constructive interpretation of 1NT
3NT makes perfect sense to me.   2NT takes on most of
the risk associated with the stiff club, without the upside,
and 3D doesn't make sense with the heart suit under
control.

Now, given a constructive interpretation of the 1NT 
advance, should advancer bid on this hand?   

Fred.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

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Fred.

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Jan 6, 2022, 6:39:04 AM1/6/22
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In this example, when playing a light overcall, 
intervenor needs to double.

Fred.

judyorcarl

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Jan 6, 2022, 11:31:13 AM1/6/22
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Never re-open: the opponents have a game.

Carl

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Adam Wildavsky

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Jan 6, 2022, 11:53:47 AM1/6/22
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I would overcall 1S as intervenor and pass as advancer, missing the great game. Them's the breaks. I'd double with the ST instead of a Sx, so it's a close decision - I'd not criticize either call.

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Fred.

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Jan 6, 2022, 8:48:26 PM1/6/22
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The opponents have a game if they bid it and
either you hold the spade king, or you miss
the club shift against 3NT.

Fred.
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