A simple question

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jerome keslin

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Oct 20, 2021, 5:22:57 PM10/20/21
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After the bidding : 

1h -1nt

What is the suggested rebid with:

8
AJT7632
KQ84
7

Frisco Del Rosario

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Oct 21, 2021, 6:33:26 PM10/21/21
to The Kaplan-Sheinwold Bidding System
2H, with a lot in reserve. There'll be more bidding.

Adam Wildavsky

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Oct 21, 2021, 8:39:56 PM10/21/21
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Colors? IMPs or matchpoints?

Sent via Superhuman


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jerome keslin

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Oct 22, 2021, 2:22:24 AM10/22/21
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All vulnerable at IMP pairs

On Fri, 22 Oct 2021, 03:39 Adam Wildavsky, <ad...@tameware.com> wrote:
Colors? IMPs or matchpoints?

Sent via Superhuman


On Wed, Oct 20, 2021 at 5:22 PM, jerome keslin <jet...@gmail.com> wrote:
After the bidding : 

1h -1nt

What is the suggested rebid with:

8
AJT7632
KQ84
7

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jerome keslin

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Oct 22, 2021, 3:02:15 PM10/22/21
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in section C2, 
1Ma - 1nt
4Ma

is described as a gambling freak, too strong to preempt.
Doesn't this hand fit the bill?

Christopher Monsour

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Oct 22, 2021, 3:06:50 PM10/22/21
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Yes.  One thing I like about KS is that 1M-1N-3M, though not forcing, is stronger than in standard, which is what makes 4M as a weak freak playable.

I'd also much rather 1M-1N-2m on a 3-bagger than 1M-1N-3m on a 3-bagger.

From: kaplan-s...@googlegroups.com <kaplan-s...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of jerome keslin <jet...@gmail.com>
Sent: Friday, October 22, 2021 2:02 PM
To: kaplan-s...@googlegroups.com <kaplan-s...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: A simple question
 

Adam Wildavsky

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Oct 22, 2021, 4:21:00 PM10/22/21
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Both opponents have passed. I see no need to preempt with 4H. 2H seems like too little, especially vul at IMPs. It's what I would bid with a heart fewer. I think partner will be able to make a somewhat informed decision over 3H - he'll value a doubleton heart over a singleton, a stiff heart honor over a small one, and aces over queens and jacks. Simulation would help us choose between 3H and 4H, since competition is unlikely.

2d followed by 3H would give partner a better picture, and maybe it's best. It frightens me, though. I can almost picture going down in 2d while a favorite for 4H.



Sent via Superhuman


On Fri, Oct 22, 2021 at 3:06 PM, Christopher Monsour <cmon...@msn.com> wrote:
Yes.  One thing I like about KS is that 1M-1N-3M, though not forcing, is stronger than in standard, which is what makes 4M as a weak freak playable.

I'd also much rather 1M-1N-2m on a 3-bagger than 1M-1N-3m on a 3-bagger.

Sent: Friday, October 22, 2021 2:02 PM

Subject: Re: A simple question
in section C2, 
1Ma - 1nt
4Ma

is described as a gambling freak, too strong to preempt.
Doesn't this hand fit the bill?


On Fri, Oct 22, 2021 at 9:22 AM jerome keslin <jetkro@gmail.com> wrote:
All vulnerable at IMP pairs

On Fri, 22 Oct 2021, 03:39 Adam Wildavsky, <adam@tameware.com> wrote:
Colors? IMPs or matchpoints?

Sent via Superhuman


On Wed, Oct 20, 2021 at 5:22 PM, jerome keslin <jetkro@gmail.com> wrote:
After the bidding : 

1h -1nt

What is the suggested rebid with:

8
AJT7632
KQ84
7

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Adam Wildavsky

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Oct 22, 2021, 6:45:47 PM10/22/21
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Here's a quick sim, using Antony Lee's Python reimplementation of Thomas Andrews' Deal:

time redeal -S '8 AJT7632 KQ84 7' --accept \
'return \
    len(deal.north.spades) <= 4 and \
    len(deal.north.hearts) <= 3 and \
    deal.north.hcp >=  6 and \
    deal.north.hcp <= 11
' -n 10000 \
--do 'print(["%2d" % deal.dd_tricks("1HS")])' \
| grep -v Tries | sort | uniq -c

   7 [' 5']

  67 [' 6']

 499 [' 7']

1555 [' 8']

2816 [' 9']

3081 ['10']

1855 ['11']

 120 ['12']


It ran in under a minute on my Mac and shows that, double-dummy, we'll take 10 tricks roughly 5056 times out of 10000. 3H will be better than 4H if partner will raise on most of the hands that will make 4H and relatively few of the ones that won't. To learn whether that's so we'd have to inspect the hands that are generated, and also throw out that hands where the auction would be contested or responder would bid something other than 1N. I can have the script show us all the hands, and also generate fewer, but going through even 50 deals is more work than I have the time or inclination for. If anyone wants to try it and you can't get Deal or Redeal to work on your system I'll be happy to send over the list or generated deals.




Sent via Superhuman


On Fri, Oct 22, 2021 at 4:20 PM, Adam Wildavsky <ad...@tameware.com> wrote:
Both opponents have passed. I see no need to preempt with 4H. 2H seems like too little, especially vul at IMPs. It's what I would bid with a heart fewer. I think partner will be able to make a somewhat informed decision over 3H - he'll value a doubleton heart over a singleton, a stiff heart honor over a small one, and aces over queens and jacks. Simulation would help us choose between 3H and 4H, since competition is unlikely.

2d followed by 3H would give partner a better picture, and maybe it's best. It frightens me, though. I can almost picture going down in 2d while a favorite for 4H.



Sent via Superhuman


Adam Wildavsky

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Oct 22, 2021, 10:51:11 PM10/22/21
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"I'll be happy to send over the list of generated deals."

Sent via Superhuman


On Fri, Oct 22, 2021 at 6:45 PM, Adam Wildavsky <ad...@tameware.com> wrote:
Here's a quick sim, using Antony Lee's Python reimplementation of Thomas Andrews' Deal:

time redeal -S '8 AJT7632 KQ84 7' --accept \
'return \
    len(deal.north.spades) <= 4 and \
    len(deal.north.hearts) <= 3 and \
    deal.north.hcp >=  6 and \
    deal.north.hcp <= 11
' -n 10000 \
--do 'print(["%2d" % deal.dd_tricks("1HS")])' \
| grep -v Tries | sort | uniq -c

   7 [' 5']

  67 [' 6']

 499 [' 7']

1555 [' 8']

2816 [' 9']

3081 ['10']

1855 ['11']

 120 ['12']


It ran in under a minute on my Mac and shows that, double-dummy, we'll take 10 tricks roughly 5056 times out of 10000. 3H will be better than 4H if partner will raise on most of the hands that will make 4H and relatively few of the ones that won't. To learn whether that's so we'd have to inspect the hands that are generated, and also throw out that hands where the auction would be contested or responder would bid something other than 1N. I can have the script show us all the hands, and also generate fewer, but going through even 50 deals is more work than I have the time or inclination for. If anyone wants to try it and you can't get Deal or Redeal to work on your system I'll be happy to send over the list or generated deals.




Sent via Superhuman


jerome keslin

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Oct 23, 2021, 2:26:06 AM10/23/21
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Thanks Adam.
If I understood you correctly, are you saying that the vulnerable jump to 4 hearts will make game in roughly 50% of the time? 


Sent: Friday, October 22, 2021 2:02 PM

Subject: Re: A simple question
in section C2, 
1Ma - 1nt
4Ma

is described as a gambling freak, too strong to preempt.
Doesn't this hand fit the bill?


On Fri, Oct 22, 2021 at 9:22 AM jerome keslin <jet...@gmail.com> wrote:
All vulnerable at IMP pairs

On Fri, 22 Oct 2021, 03:39 Adam Wildavsky, <ad...@tameware.com> wrote:
Colors? IMPs or matchpoints?

Sent via Superhuman


On Wed, Oct 20, 2021 at 5:22 PM, jerome keslin <jet...@gmail.com> wrote:
After the bidding : 

1h -1nt

What is the suggested rebid with:

8
AJT7632
KQ84
7

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Otis Bricker

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Oct 23, 2021, 9:54:16 AM10/23/21
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I think it would be more accurate to say that the sim suggests it makes about 50% of the time, DOUBLE DUMMY. 

I have never actually gathered data from the real world, but would not be surprised if this diverged from real world play. Or even based on the auction in the real world. I did notice that I frequently did better than DD on our 1N-2M auctions.  

My one concern about the sim results is the same as Adam’s, that it does not take opponents non-bidding into account. With 8 spades, short hearts and probably more than 1/2 the HCP, they stayed quiet. I would suggest adding some restrictions to W that eliminate obvious doubles and overcalls and regenerating the hands.  

But we can’t ask Adam to do EVERYTHING. 

The mere fact that they did not bid seems to increase the expectation of HCP in partners hand.  And I suspect it decreases the expected hearts. Depending on the opponents defensive bidding style.

My gut tells me this hand will underperform the sim by a little. But I have noting really to base that on. 

Otis

On Oct 23, 2021, at 2:26 AM, jerome keslin <jet...@gmail.com> wrote:



Adam Wildavsky

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Oct 23, 2021, 10:54:17 AM10/23/21
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Yes, that would be more accurate.

The declaring side has an advantage over double-dummy, primarily through the opening lead. Here, the defenders might lead the wrong black suit or could plunk down the dA.

Sent via Superhuman


On Sat, Oct 23, 2021 at 9:54 AM, Otis Bricker <otisb...@gmail.com> wrote:
I think it would be more accurate to say that the sim suggests it makes about 50% of the time, DOUBLE DUMMY. 

I have never actually gathered data from the real world, but would not be surprised if this diverged from real world play. Or even based on the auction in the real world. I did notice that I frequently did better than DD on our 1N-2M auctions.  

My one concern about the sim results is the same as Adam’s, that it does not take opponents non-bidding into account. With 8 spades, short hearts and probably more than 1/2 the HCP, they stayed quiet. I would suggest adding some restrictions to W that eliminate obvious doubles and overcalls and regenerating the hands.  

But we can’t ask Adam to do EVERYTHING. 

The mere fact that they did not bid seems to increase the expectation of HCP in partners hand.  And I suspect it decreases the expected hearts. Depending on the opponents defensive bidding style.

My gut tells me this hand will underperform the sim by a little. But I have noting really to base that on. 

Otis

On Oct 23, 2021, at 2:26 AM, jerome keslin <jetkro@gmail.com> wrote:


Thanks Adam.
If I understood you correctly, are you saying that the vulnerable jump to 4 hearts will make game in roughly 50% of the time? 


Sent: Friday, October 22, 2021 2:02 PM

Subject: Re: A simple question
in section C2, 
1Ma - 1nt
4Ma

is described as a gambling freak, too strong to preempt.
Doesn't this hand fit the bill?


On Fri, Oct 22, 2021 at 9:22 AM jerome keslin <jetkro@gmail.com> wrote:
All vulnerable at IMP pairs

On Fri, 22 Oct 2021, 03:39 Adam Wildavsky, <adam@tameware.com> wrote:
Colors? IMPs or matchpoints?

Sent via Superhuman


On Wed, Oct 20, 2021 at 5:22 PM, jerome keslin <jetkro@gmail.com> wrote:
After the bidding : 

1h -1nt

What is the suggested rebid with:

8
AJT7632
KQ84
7

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David Morgan

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Oct 23, 2021, 10:50:32 PM10/23/21
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For data on DD v at-the-table results see the great work done by Richard Pavlicek here.  (Richard deserves to be in a hall of fame just for the data on his website.  It's a pity he stopped updating it -- because of his frustration with the decision to reduce KO matches from 64 to 60 boards -- and I hope someone will build on his legacy as expanding the dataset would be a major community benefit.)

Over 10406 deals played in 4H in major US events between 1996-2014 the declarers took fewer tricks than DD, the only non-slam contract for which this was true.  The difference is so small, and ditto for 4S contracts, that it's fair to say that DD results on average are a very good proxy for at-the-table results.

Otis is right (and Adam recognised this) that for the sim to be meaningful deals need to be excluded where the opponents would have acted.  I use Dealer for my sims and have a specification file for a pass by the opponents over standard openings.  It's not perfect, and it reflects my style for doubles, overcalls and preempts, but it's very helpful for making sim results more meaningful.

As to the actual problem, I'd note that here in Australia most good players would have opened 4H with the 74 shape.  I recall that Kaplan was reluctant to open 4H when short in spades if he had an alternative as his experience was that the bid acted as a transfer to 4S by the opponents.  So opening 1H has great appeal.  Rebidding anything other than 4H after the actual auction with the opponents' silence seems risky to me.

David
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