The index case or patient zero is the first documented patient in a disease epidemic within a population,[1] or the first documented patient included in an epidemiological study.[2] It can also refer to the first case of a condition or syndrome (not necessarily contagious) to be described in the medical literature, whether or not the patient is thought to be the first person affected.[citation needed] An index case can achieve the status of a "classic" case study in the literature, as did Phineas Gage, the first known person to exhibit a definitive personality change as a result of a brain injury.[3]
"Patient zero" was used to refer to the supposed source of HIV outbreak in the United States, flight attendant Gaëtan Dugas in the popular press, but the term's use was based on a misunderstanding (and Dugas was not the index case).[7] In the 1984 study of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), one of the earliest recorded HIV-patients was code-named "patient O", which stands for "patient out of California". The letter O, however, was interpreted by some readers of the report as the numeral 0. The designation patient zero (for Gaëtan Dugas) was subsequently propagated by the San Francisco Chronicle journalist Randy Shilts in his book And the Band Played On in 1987. William Darrow, behavioral scientist of CDC responsible to figure out why gay men in Los Angeles were dying of a strange illness, said: "That's correct. I never labeled him Patient Zero".[8]
The term has been expanded into general usage to refer to an individual identified as the first carrier of a communicable disease in a population (the primary case) or pandemics, or the first incident in the onset of a catastrophic trend.[9][10] In some cases, a known or suspected patient zero may be informally referred to as an index case for the purpose of a scientific study, such as the two-year-old boy in a remote village in Guinea who was thought to be the source of the largest Ebola virus outbreak in history,[2][11] or an unknown one, such as the mysterious patient zero of COVID-19.[12][13]
In genetics, the index case is the case of the original patient (i.e. propositus or proband) that stimulates investigation of other members of the family to discover a possible genetic factor.[14]
In the early years of the AIDS epidemic, a patient zero transmission scenario was compiled by William Darrow and colleagues at the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).[17] This epidemiological study showed how patient zero had infected multiple partners with HIV, and they, in turn, transmitted it to others causing rapid spread of the virus to locations all over the world (Auerbach et al., 1984). The CDC identified Gaëtan Dugas as a carrier of the virus from Europe to the United States, who spread it to other men he had sexual contact with at gay bathhouses.[18]
Journalist Randy Shilts subsequently wrote about patient zero, based on Darrow's findings,[17] in his 1987 book And the Band Played On, which identified patient zero as being Gaëtan Dugas.[19] Dugas was a flight attendant who was sexually promiscuous in several North American cities, according to Shilts' book. He was vilified for several years as a "mass spreader" of HIV, and was seen as the original source of the HIV epidemic among homosexual men. Four years later, Darrow repudiated the study's methodology and how Shilts had represented its conclusions.[17]
The phrase patient zero is now used in the media to refer to the primary case for infectious disease outbreaks, as well as for computer virus outbreaks, and more broadly, as the source of ideas or actions that have far-reaching consequences.[23][24][25][26][27]
David Heymann, professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and formerly with the World Health Organization (WHO),[28] has questioned the importance of finding patient zero, stating, "Finding patient zero may be important in some instances, but only if they are still alive and spreading the disease; and more often than not, especially in large disease outbreaks, they're not."[29]
Gina is shown with a positive pregnancy test. Bodies of fallen soldiers are being cremated when one opens his eyes and attacks the workers and soldiers. After a one-on-one fight with Knox, he is subdued and asks to speak with Morgan specifically, who is surprised that the patient is unaffected by the music that has driven the other infected into a rage. He even lights and starts smoking a cigarette from his pocket. The team assume he's closely linked to Patient Zero. The patient reveals that he was a college professor and his school was attacked by the infected during one of his lectures. He was bitten, but still maintains most of his human abilities. The Professor tells Morgan that the infected are evolved humans, a more advanced species who are at the top of the food chain. Their debate raises Morgan's suspicions, and soon Morgan finds that another of their previous patients, nicknamed Pete Townshend, has a transmitter sewn inside his chest, revealing that the infected laid a trap to learn where the base is located.
The Bush health plan adopted the Arizona managed-care model for Medicare and Medicaid, and added a tax credit for uninsured Americans outside those programs to help purchase basic private health insurance. Rules were put in place so nobody could be denied for a pre-existing condition and everyone in a region would pay the same rate. A risk-adjustment mechanism would give companies with sicker patients in its risk pool payments from healthier pools, to guard against cherry-picking.
But then the problems began. The NaviHealth algorithm recommended a set number of care days. If that day came and the patient was still in pain or not ready to go home, she could be cut off from coverage. Stat News reported on patients having to spend down their life savings to get Medicaid to pick up nursing home costs when Medicare stopped covering. Families filed legal appeals that took months to resolve, sometimes outliving the patients. Appeals spiked between 2020 and 2022, right when UnitedHealth bought the company.
"Gaétan Dugas is one of the most demonised patients in history, and one of a long line of individuals and groups vilified in the belief that they somehow fuelled epidemics with malicious intent," says McKay.
While his wider research traces this impulse to blame back several centuries, for the Nature paper McKay located the immediate roots of the term "Patient Zero" in an early 'cluster study' of US AIDS patients.
CDC investigators employed a coding system to identify the study's patients, numbering each city's cases linked to the cluster in the sequence their symptoms appeared (LA 1, LA 2, NY 1, NY 2, etc.). However, within the CDC, Case 057 became known as 'Out(side)-of-California' -- his new nickname abbreviated with the letter 'O.'
After creating a patient zero policy, you can use the Policy alert type to view the matched patient zero policy alerts on the Skope IT Alerts page. To learn more: Viewing Patient Zero Events.
This article contextualizes the production and reception of And the Band Played On, Randy Shilts's popular history of the initial recognition of the American AIDS epidemic. Published over twenty-five years ago, the book and its most notorious character, "Patient Zero," are in particular need of a critical historical treatment. The article presents a more balanced consideration-a "patient's view"-of Gaétan Dugas's experience of the early years of AIDS. I oppose the assertion that Dugas, the so-called Patient Zero, ignored incontrovertible information about the condition and was intent on spreading his infection. Instead I argue that scientific ideas in 1982 and 1983 about AIDS and the transmissibility of a causative agent were later portrayed to be more self-evident than they were at the time. The article also traces how Shilts's highly selective-and highly readable-characterization of Dugas rapidly became embedded in discussions about the need to criminalize the reckless transmission of HIV.
Detection of patient zero can give new insights to epidemiologists about the nature of first transmissions into a population. In this Letter, we study the statistical inference problem of detecting the source of epidemics from a snapshot of spreading on an arbitrary network structure. By using exact analytic calculations and Monte Carlo estimators, we demonstrate the detectability limits for the susceptible-infected-recovered model, which primarily depend on the spreading process characteristics. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of the approach in a case of a simulated sexually transmitted infection spreading over an empirical temporal network of sexual interactions.
This quasi-zombie action movie eventually wanders cluelessly off track, but, as it consists mainly of yelling, sudden loud noises, and camera-shaking, it gets aggravating long before that happens. Patient Zero was shelved, delayed, and re-scheduled several times before finally being released. (Like that old Hollywood joke: It wasn't released, it escaped.) It's not clear whether there were re-shoots or it was just a rough screenplay, but the entire concept of "patient zero" -- and the entire theme of the movie -- are simply tossed away in the third act.
Patient zero quickly entered the popular lexicon. By the 1990s, it was already being used to describe imaginary scenarios like, say, the first person infected in a zombie apocalypse, taken more generally to mean the origin of a fast-spreading epidemic.
Patient zero is used in medical contexts to describe the first person identified as being infected with a disease. This information is useful to scientists, because once a patient zero is identified, they can understand better how disease is spreading and work toward a cure.
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