Obama still turning economy around

[Juneau Smog]

Unemployment Rate Falls to 10%

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125993225142676615.html?mod=rss_Today's_Most_Popular

Oh, I bet Brent's face is red with steam coming out his ears this morning. "Dammit! The country is recovering! This is bad for our party!"

 

Besting the expectations that the unemployment rate was going to increase, it instead fell from 10.2% to 10.0%, showing signs that last and toughest leg of the economy is finally changing directions for the better. Long way to go yet to clean up after Bush, but thank god Obama is president and not "Same Economic Policies as Bush" McCain isn't in there.

 

Only 11k jobs lost in November, versus the 741k jobs lost in January 08 while Bush was just leaving office.

 

U.S. job losses in November posted the smallest drop since the start of the recession and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, a sign the labor market is finally healing as the economy recovers.

Nonfarm payrolls fell by just 11,000 last month, slowing down from a downwardly revised 111,000 drop seen in October, as the recovery encouraged some companies to retain workers, the Labor Department said Friday.

It was the best showing since December 2007, when the recession began and payrolls had risen by 120,000. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected a payroll decrease of 125,000.

The unemployment rate, calculated using a survey of households as opposed to companies, edged lower to 10% in November from 10.2%. Economists had forecast the jobless rate would remain at October's level of 10.2%, when it rose to the highest level since April 1983.

Employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and information, while temporary help services and health care added jobs.

In a separate report, U.S. factory orders rose for the sixth time in seven months in October, posting a 0.6% gain on the heels of stronger than previously estimated growth in September. The increase beat expectations from economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, who were expecting factory orders would be unchanged.

The payroll data reflect a notable improvement in the jobs market. In the prior three months, payroll job losses had averaged 135,000 a month.

"We are one step closer today to the stabilization of the labor market," said Chris Rupkey of Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi. "The massive job cuts during the financial crisis last fall were too aggressive and firms will need to rehire staff within the next couple of months."

Employment in the service sector -- the main source of U.S. jobs -- rose by 58,000 in November. But that was more than offset by manufacturing companies shedding 41,000 jobs and construction companies cutting 27,000.

Health-care employment continued to rise in November, by 21,000. The industry has added 613,000 jobs since the recession began at the end of 2007.

Despite the better-than-expected report, the jobs market has still some way to recover. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed has increased by almost eight million.

With unemployment still at a lofty 10%, the Federal Reserve's view that interest rates must remain at a record low to bolster a soft recovery should remain unchanged. The central bank left interest rates close to zero a month ago in the face of low inflation and still-high unemployment.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Thursday told U.S. senators the central bank expects the unemployment rate to decline only slowly from next year as the economic recovery remains "moderate."

President Barack Obama is concerned about the persistently high jobless rate. His administration Thursday kicked off a jobs summit, with the president promising to take "every responsible step to accelerate job creation."

In minutes released after their Nov. 3-4 meeting, Fed officials said they expect the jobless rate to remain between 9.3% and 9.7% by this time next year, and to settle above 8% in 2011, levels usually seen in recessions.

The U.S. economy expanded in the third quarter for the first time in more than a year, growing an annual 2.8%, but the jobs market's weakness and tight bank lending is expected to keep the recovery contained.

Friday's report showed that average hourly earnings rose by 0.1%, or $0.01, to $18.74.

The average workweek rose by 0.2 hour to 33.2 hours in November.

Factory Orders Rise in October

The U.S. valued its October factory orders at a seasonally adjusted $360.5 billion in October, the Commerce Department said Friday.

The Commerce Department's report showed sluggish demand for durable goods, those meant to last at least three years, while showing a stronger appetite for nondurable goods.

Durable goods orders dipped 0.6%, in line with a government estimate released last week. Meanwhile, orders for nondurable goods rose 1.6.% following an upwardly revised 1.1% climb in September.

Factory orders for the first 10 months of the year are 20.7% below their level in 2008, showing just how much wind the recession has taken out o the manufacturing sector.

Still, the Institute for Supply Management earlier this week reported its manufacturing index grew for the fourth consecutive month in November. However, the index came in at 53.6, below October's level of 55.7. Any level above 50 is seen as an indication of growth.

Friday's Commerce Department report showed capital goods spending slipped 2.1% in October

Excluding the defense sector, factory orders climbed 1.1% in the month, following a 1.5% increase in September.

Non-defense capital goods orders, a category that includes business equipment meant to last at least a decade, crept upward by 0.7%. Orders for defense related capital goods meanwhile slid 16.7%.

Motor vehicle orders grew 0.4%. Orders from the transportation sector rose 1.6%. Excluding the transportation sector, October factory orders were up 0.5%

The Commerce Department data also showed manufacturers' inventories grew 0.4%.

Unfilled orders, a sign of future demand, dipped for the 13th consecutive month, falling 0.4%.

Shipments of all factory goods in October climbed 0.8%.

 

--
Yes we can heal this nation.
Yes we can repair this world.

[Brent Wolters]

Bhahahhahaha!  You're hilarious.  I wish that the economy would bounce back...and not on the backs of seasonal part-time retail hiring.  I'm not going to be fooled into believing that these numbers are sustainable...which leads me to...The Question of the Day...

 

JSMOGGERS:   What will happen to unemployment after Christmas, say around February of 2010?

 

A)  Unemployment will drop to 9.8%. 

B)  Unemployment will remain at 10%.

C)  Unemployment will rise to nearly 11%.

 

If you answered 'C' you are realistic and have a good understanding of the economy.  If you answered 'B' you are optimistic beyond reason.  If you answered 'A' then you are a complete & total fool.

 

 

Subject: Obama still turning economy around

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[Kyle Curtis]

Although job losses have occurred for 23 consecutive months, of the now 11 months that Obama, has been President, we've seen the number of job losses decrease from 741,000 in January to 11,000 in November that occurred during the Bush recovery, at the expense of the failed Obama stimulus.  You should graph that for a visual image, and than draw a mirrored reflection, which would be using regression anylsis to illustrate future job trends.

If you think that another 741,000 jobs will be lost in January 2010, you are either:

a. A moron
b. Functionally retarded
c. Both

[Juneau Smog]

Hey Alex, did you add to the Future List that unemployment will be nearly 11% in February 2010? Because that's realistic after all, despite every single economic indicator, including the WSJ article I posted above.

[Alex Romero]

Yeah its number 10...but he said 12%

THE FUTURE ACCORDING TO BRENT

12. The success of Sarah Palin's (i.e. Sarah!'s) successful 2012 presidential election will be due to the liberal media being fearfull of her.

11. Pawlenty and Palin will win the 2012 election.

10. In February 2010, the unemployment rate will reach 12% in the United States.

9. The cash for clunkers will be viewed as irresponsible spending and will bring back a stronger more conservative GOP in 2010, 2012.

8. By the year 2010 Democrats outside the inner cities will start to distance themselves from the President.

7. In 2012 Obamanomics will be swimming in double digit inflation, and the US real estate market will have continued to collapse for the previous 3 years.

6. In the year 2021, Supreme Court Judge Sonia Sotomayor will be dead due to complications from Diabetes, and be outlived by the justice she replaced David Souter.

5. Towards the end of Obama's first term (Feb 2011), his handler will decide not to have Obama run for the second term, just like LBJ.

4. In the 2012 presidential election, if Obama should happen to be on the ticket, he would clearly lose just like Jimmy Carter did in 1980.

3. FALSE: In 21 months (December 2010), the GOP will be back in power, because Democrats will realize Obama is an un-qualified twit.

2. In ten years (2019) G.W. Bush's long term results of his policies will finally be seen, and he will go down as one of the top 15 Presidents of all time.

1. FALSE: If ever there was a debate between Rush Limbaugh and Barack Obama (undetermined), Rush would win due to lack of use of teleprompters.

xx

[Brent Wolters]

 

It would be pretty bizarre if it was 741,000 jobs lost. It will be a big number:  Somewhere between 350k-750k. 

[Juneau Smog]

Bwahahahaha! Did you even read the WSJ article? Or is that now a liberal Robert Murdoch rag? There's a neat little graph in the article that shows how job losses have been decreasing. We haven't seen 300k losses since 6 months ago. Was everyone hiring seasonal xmas retail part-time employment in July? And job losses have been dropping each month since with only 11k lost last month. 741k was the largest monthly jobs loss since The Reagan Years, in Jan 08, right when Bush was leaving office, yet you think that will happen again by February 2010? How could someone have such a lack of understanding of how the economy works?

[Juneau Smog]

741k is indeed a big number! In fact it's 3/4ths of the entire net jobs created by GW Bush during 8 years in office. In one month he almost lost the total amount of net jobs he created in 8 years. H Hover move over, there's a new Worst President Ever for the books.

[Kyle Curtis]

The reason why Bush's economy cratered was because the boomers that drove the housing boom from the mid=90s, got older and sold their houses.  As the largest age cohort in American history, guess who couldn't buy the surplus.  That's right, everybody else who is younger.  Its amazing how Shrub was able to say "We have the highest number of Americans owning houses ever," right at the peak of boomer entrance into the housing market.

Also can somebody tell me how seasonal jobs correlates with job losses?  In fact, all of the economic reports I've read said that the increase in temporary jobs (not seasonal, but temporary) is a good indicator, as businesses use temp services as they rebound, to suss out how things are improving, and then make the temporary hires permananet.

So, once again, Brent fail.

[Brent Wolters]

 

OVEREXPOSURE!

[Kyle Curtis]

I can't open the attachment- I assume its a picutre of Sarah?!?!?!

On Fri, Dec 4, 2009 at 10:08 PM, Brent Wolters <brenton...@comcast.net> wrote:

 

OVEREXPOSURE!

[Brent Wolters]

It's a picture from the cover of Golf Digest of Tiger Woods standing behind a crouching Barack Obama.  They appear to be watching their poll numbers.

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[Alex Romero]

Why does Brent always thing a graphic image makes him win an argument?...i dont get it...but the phony photoshopped Golf Digest cover is a big yawn compared to Sarah?'s real newsweek cover...talk about a big ham!!..."lets drape this american flag over a chair next to you"...WHAT?!?!?!?...does anyone ever see the American Flag hanging out next to ex-governor joggers?...maybe she was packing it up on her way out as she quit....

[Juneau Smog]

did you mean "half-governor"?

[Brent Wolters]

OMG!  What a sexist comment. 

Version: 8.5.426 / Virus Database: 270.14.94/2545 - Release Date: 12/05/09 08:13:00

[Juneau Smog]

"Half-Governor"? Would you prefer "Quitter"? Is the entire state of Alaska sexist because that's all Sarah Palin represents to us now. She can't even run a 10k without quitting. Is her goal to be elected president so she can quit half way through? That would be so great for the country. You better be in front of the line to get your Palin book signed by her because you know she quits about half way through. Oh yeah, and to get a picture with her costs $16. That is if she doesn't quit before you get it taken.

[Brent Wolters]

Hmmm. My sister and niece just got there picture and book signed by Palin down in Texas. 

 

Looks like Sarah will solve more problems in her first month than Obama did in his first year.

[Kyle Curtis]

Ah.  The dramatic decrease in job losses will be solved due to the sales of Sarah?!?!?'s book?

Nice!  But... how much did your sister & niece pay for those pics?  You rail about Obaam taking money out of your wallet- and then Dan points out that's completely false- but than rally in favor of someone who actually, physically took moeny from your relatives.  That'll help them out!

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/05/business/economy/05jobs.html?_r=1&em

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/04/jobs-report-parsing-the-details/?scp=1&sq=metric%20measuring%20economy&st=Search

Jobs Report: Parsing the Details

By DAVID LEONHARDT

As I dig further into Friday’s jobs report, it looks even better than a cursory glance suggests. But it’s also clear that people who are out of work are having a tremendously difficult time finding new work. Layoffs have become a lot less common in recent months, it seems, but hiring is still painfully slow. Some more details:

• Not only was the November job-loss number much better than expected, but the Labor Department also revised down the job losses for September and October. The economy lost 159,000 fewer jobs in those two months than originally reported. Combine those revisions with the November loss of only 11,000 jobs, and the economy had about 300,000 more jobs last month than forecasters expected. That’s a lot of jobs.
• The private sector lost 18,000 jobs, while government agencies — federal, state and local — added 7,000. As with the overall job loss, it was the smallest private-sector decline since December 2007.
• The number of long-term jobless continues to rise. As I said, it’s clear that people without work are continuing to struggle terribly. Almost 5.9 people million last month had been out of work at least 27 weeks and were still actively looking for a job, up from 5.6 million in October.
• Construction, finance, retail and media continued to shed jobs, as did hotels and restaurants. Professional services (like consulting) and health care added jobs.
• The number of part-time workers who would like full-time work, which has been rising rapidly over the past two years, fell by 38,000. There were 9.2 million people in this category last month.
• The Labor Department’s broadest measure of unemployment and underemployment fell to 17.2 percent, from 17.5 percent. This includes those part-time workers who would like to be working full time, as well as unemployed people who have looked for work in the last year but not the last four weeks. The 17.5 percent number from October appears to have been the highest since the 1930s.
• The job market was tougher on black and Hispanic workers than on white and Asian ones last month. Over all, since the start of the recession in December 2007, the share of black adults without jobs has risen more than 5 percentage points; the same is true of Hispanic adults. For white and Asian adults, the increase has been 4 percentage points.