Fw: HTI Daily 20160107 - Geely: revised up TP and volume assumptions; SH Fudan: revised up TP on BTE 2H15 ID card reader shipment
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YeT...@ocbcsec.com
Jan 6, 2016, 10:33:51 PM1/6/16
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Updates Geely Automobile Holdings (175 HK, BUY, TP: HK$5.50, +44% Upside) – Geely Reports CY15 Sales Volume Ahead of Our Expectations (Steve Usher) l Co Projection of Next Year Sales Growth: Co projects 18% YoY sales volume growth in CY16 l Growth Driver for CY16: Growth likely to be supported by the continued contribution from the GC9 high0end sedan and the new NL-3 SUV due to be introduced this month l Revised our CY16 Volume Target: Have revised up our CY16 vol target to up 19.6% YoY l Valuation:TP is based on FY16 EV/EBITDA of 5.0x and PER of 12.8x l Catalyst:Sustained Volume Growth and the success of the new NL-3 when results begin to appear in Feb https://publication.sgresearch.com/en/1/0/22466/173527.html?sid=e1290785f325da5267b01d4d319d47ca Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group (1385 HK, BUY, TP: HK$7.50, +38% Upside) – Undivided Attention (Yuan Yuan Ji) l Gaining Market Share: Co gain market shares in most of the key areas where it operates in 2015 by focusing on product development l Continue Revenue Growth: Expect the company to deliver a 16% revenue CAGR over FY15-17, driven by smart meter segment as well as wider application and growing demand of security and identification products l OP Growth of 25% CAGR: Expect it to outpace revenue growth given the higher operating leverage of the business l Valuation:TP is based on DCF with LT-growth rate and WACC at 3.5% and 13% respectively l Catalyst:Beating-estimates FY15 results and Shenzhen – HK Connect https://publication.sgresearch.com/en/1/0/22466/173535.html?sid=f26ec02f38ce8d954d05b9eead0b8fad Largan Precision (3008 TT, NEUTRAL) – Surprisingly Weak December Sales (Jean-Louis Lafayeedney) l Weak December Sales: Largan’s revenue likely fell short by about 9% of our FY15 estimate, Dec sales at NT$4.0bn (-31% YoY) steepest monthly drop YoY since 2010 l Apple Cuts: Bloomberg reported Apple cutting production by up to 30% vs our supply chain checks, a month ago, of 5-10% l Underperforming but Fair Value: Largan underperforms TWSE by 34% since its peak on 2 July but PBR of 4.5x on our FY15 estimates seems fair for 38-40% ROE over next 2 years l Catalyst: Apple’s release of Q1 FY9/16 earnings on 26 January 2016 https://publication.sgresearch.com/en/1/0/404105/173524.html?sid=f394afe350538cd010892b603182a8f1 Nissan Motor (7201 JP, BUY, TP:¥1,500, +22% Upside) – Nissan US Sales Remain Strong, Up 10.3% YoY (Steve Usher) l Dec Sales Volume: Nissan reported +10.3% YoY in US Sales, light truck volume +33.6% YoY, Infiniti volume +16.7% YoY l Best of Class: Growth rate highest of Japanese Big three and second highest of major makers l Driven by SUVs: Rogue posted +65.3% YoY and QX50 six-fold YoY rise with all SUV models reporting double-digit gains l Valuation: Against our revised forecasts, the FY3/16 EV/EBITDA is 2.9x and the PER is 8.6x, declining to 2.6x and 7.8x, respectively in FY3/17 (below averages of 3.2x and 9.6x) https://publication.sgresearch.com/en/1/0/404105/173501.html?sid=88dbc9e03791df01bce4632d55fd3ea9 Bridgestone (5108 JP, NEUTRAL (from Sell), TP: Y4,300, +7% Upside) – The Bidding War Is Over (Kosuke Matsuda) l Walking Away from Acquisition: Co has decided not to counter the latest bid by Carl Icahn for Pep Boys l Growth Prospect: Currently, growth is mainly from YoY drops in its cost on raw materials and a weak JPY, relative to USD, but these are not fundamental bases for growth and we expect global rubber prices to stabilize from FY12/16 l Maintaining Market Share: Believe Co aims to maintain its share by increasing volumes at the expense of a possible reduction in profitability l Valuation:TP is based on FY12/16 EV/EBITDA of 4.9x, PER 9x, and PBR 1.2x, in line with company’s average https://publication.sgresearch.com/en/1/0/22466/173512.html?sid=616e0e747b0a5ef432bca36cdd0d0695 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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