Morocco: PM Benkirane’s popularity unshaken by subsidy reforms

[hamid khail]

Cdt

Hamid KHAIL
Chargé d'études auprès du Chef du Gouvernement.
Secrétariat Permanent du CNEA
Ministère des Affaires Générales et de la Gouvernance
0661 475 909

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From: "Sara Boukhoubza" <sa...@boukhobza.com>
Date: Jan 7, 2015 12:24 PM
Subject: Fwd: Morocco: PM Benkirane’s popularity unshaken by subsidy reforms
To: "Thami EL MAAROUFI" <t.elma...@gmail.com>, "Wahib Lhoussaine" <wahib.lh...@gmail.com>, "Hamid KHAIL" <khail...@gmail.com>
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From: Jose A Cerveira <jose.a....@jpmresearchmail.com>
Date: 2015-01-07 11:59 GMT+00:00
Subject: Morocco: PM Benkirane’s popularity unshaken by subsidy reforms
To: Sara Boukobza <sa...@boukhobza.com>

MENA Emerging Markets Research Middle East and North Africa Today: Morocco Today’s focus Morocco: PM Benkirane’s popularity unshaken by subsidy reforms. According to a poll jointly organized by L’Economiste-Sunergia, PM Abdelilah Benkirane’s popularity remains firm after a year of subsidy cuts, in fact picking up to 47% by end-2014 from 45% around a year earlier. The level of support/opposition to PM Benkirane is also well distributed geographically and across age and income categories. According to the poll, 48% of voters would have Benkirane reelected, while 37% would prefer not to have him leading the government in a second mandate. The stability of the PM’s popularity in the context of sharp subsidy cuts is explained by the offsetting low CPI inflation (hovering at 0-1%oya since late 2013), imported through the Dirham’s linkage to the Euro and by the collapse in oil prices. At the same time, the opposition’s popularity remains fragmented, with no single candidate coming close to the PM’s status. To the question “Which opposition leader has most credibility in your opinion?”, the most voted was Hamid Chabat, leader of the opposition’s largest party, with a mere 11%, followed by the USFP and PAM leaders, with 7% and 5% of responses, respectively. This, in our view, suggests an elevated likelihood of reelection for PM Benkirane in 2016’s parliamentary election. Because most unpopular measures were frontloaded in 2013 and 2014, and because the economy is picking up (we forecast acceleration in non-agricultural growth to 3.6% in 2015, from 3.0% in 2014 and 2.1% in 2013), not least because of lower oil prices, we see room for the PJD government to gain some popularity. Next June’s municipal election will provide a key gauge of the PJD’s reelection chances in 2016. In brief from regional media Egypt Egypt’s Cabinet plans to sell $1.5 bn international bonds (Egypt Independent) Study: Egyptian-Kuwaiti cumulative investments exceeded $16 billion over past 4 decades (Egypt Independent) Farmers, traders slam government's decision to stop cotton subsidy (Egypt Independent) Egyptian business sees fastest growth in three months in December: PMI (Ahram) Egyptian Net Foreign Reserves Fall to 18-Month Low in December (Bloomberg)   Iran Iran to Resume Nuclear Talks With World Powers Jan. 18: Mehr (Bloomberg) Iran in Talks for Russia to Cut Oil Output, Mehr News Reports (Bloomberg) Germany: Nuclear talks with Iran nearing ‘make-or-break’ moment for deal (Washington Post)   Jordan Joint parliamentary panel to sit with gov’t over electricity tariffs (Jordan Times) Jordan May Sell 400 Million Dinars of Sukuk Next Month (Bloomberg)   Libya France 'ready' to bomb rebels on Libya border (Al-Jazeera) Turkish Airlines becomes last foreign carrier to end flights to Libya (The Guardian)   Lebanon Geagea, Aoun to stick to presidential race: LF official (Daily star) Khalil: EDL’s deficit set to drop by up to $500M (Daily star) Syrians entering Lebanon face new restrictions (BBC)   Morocco Gulfsands tastes gas at Morocco onshore drill (Oil & Gas Technology) Moroccan GDP Growth Was 3.5% Last Year, Finance Ministry Says (Bloomberg)   Qatar Hamas official rejects report of expulsions from Qatar (CNN)   Saudi Arabia GCC leaders reassured on king’s health (Arab News) Saudi Arabia Dec. Whole Economy PMI 57.9 vs 57.6 in Nov. (Bloomberg)   UAE IPO pipeline in the Emirates to stay healthy (The National) ‘No panic’ on energy policy as oil prices slump, Energy Minister says (The National)   If this email does not display properly, click here to view. José Cerveira (AC) (44-20) 7742-3556 jose.a....@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc    Visit J.P. Morgan Markets for more market-leading research and financial solutions across the full trade and investment lifecycle. 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