New IZA DPs -- Higher Education
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IZA DP Alerts
May 29, 2026, 9:09:22 AMMay 29
to it...@umich.edu
New IZA Discussion Papers brought to you by IZA@LISER
Dear Italo Gutierrez,
These new IZA Discussion Papers are now available online.
DP 18523 - Helal/Hiraki/Patrinos:
Returns to Education in the United States: A Comparison of OLS and Double Machine Learning Methods
DP 18530 - Malacrino/Nocito/Saggio:
Do Reforms Aimed at Reducing Time to Graduation Work? Evidence from the Italian Higher Education System
DP 18547 - Sonedda/Matranga/Vernasca/Rossi/Figari:
Levelling up? The Role of Need and Merit Based University Grants in Non-Selective Higher Education
DP 18567 - Astruc--Le Souder/Bargain/Locks:
A Question of Honor? The Labor Market Advantage of Academic Signaling
DP 18568 - Miller:
Switching Schools: Effects of College Transfers
DP 18575 - Britton/Ridpath/Villa/Waltmann:
Paying Disadvantaged Teenagers to Stay in School
Please find the abstracts and download links below.
IZA DP No. 18523
Al Mansor Helal, Ryotaro Hiraki, Harry Anthony Patrinos:
Returns to Education in the United States: A Comparison of OLS and Double Machine Learning Methods
Abstract:
This study examines the economic returns to education in the U.S. using 2024 CPS data and compares Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with a Double Machine Learning (DML) framework incorporating models such as random forests, boosted trees, lasso, GAMs, and neural networks (MLP). Results show consistent returns of 8 to 9 percent per additional year of schooling across methods. Simulations reveal that all predictors perform well under linear assumptions if hyperparameters are optimally adjusted, while OLS/Lasso suffer from nonlinearity. Findings suggest that OLS remains robust in low-dimensional, near-linear contexts, offering practical guidance for economists and policymakers balancing model complexity and interpretability in education research.
https://docs.iza.org/dp18523.pdf
IZA DP No. 18530
Davide Malacrino, Samuel Nocito, Raffaele Saggio:
Do Reforms Aimed at Reducing Time to Graduation Work? Evidence from the Italian Higher Education System
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of a reform aimed at expediting graduation times in Italian universities by reducing the number of exams students must pass in order to graduate. Using event-study estimates that leverage the reform's staggered implementation, we find that this policy led to an increase in on-time graduation rates but also resulted in a decreased probability of employment one-year post-graduation. However, this negative effect reverses into a positive one in the medium run. We show that these patterns are explained by students using the time gained from earlier graduation to pursue additional educational qualifications.
https://docs.iza.org/dp18530.pdf
IZA DP No. 18547
Daniela Sonedda, Marcello Matranga, Gianluigi Vernasca, Mariacristina Rossi, Francesco Figari:
Levelling up? The Role of Need and Merit Based University Grants in Non-Selective Higher Education
Abstract:
We study the interaction between need- and merit-based university grants in a non-selective higher education system. Using administrative data from a northern Italian university, we analyse how eligibility criteria affect enrolment, academic performance, and labour market outcomes. We document a trade-off between the two criteria, with merit requirements acting as endogenous screening. We rationalise this trade-off with a three-period model predicting that merit thresholds increase effort among students with higher expected ability but may discourage effort among students at risk of falling short, as losing the grant reduces expected utility. We support these predictions using a difference-in-differences estimator for multiple treatments, separately analysing students switching into and out of need- and merit-based eligibility. Our results show that grants target disadvantaged but academically strong students, generate perverse incentive effects that vary by gender, and fail to retain a substantial share of initial recipients.
https://docs.iza.org/dp18547.pdf
IZA DP No. 18567
Mael Astruc--Le Souder, Olivier B. Bargain, Gedeão Locks:
A Question of Honor? The Labor Market Advantage of Academic Signaling
Abstract:
As tertiary education expands, employers increasingly rely on academic distinctions to screen among similarly qualified graduates. We study the labor-market effects of honors using administrative and survey data on Sorbonne master’s graduates. We exploit France’s fixed GPA thresholds for honors assignment to implement a fuzzy regression discontinuity design. Returns are concentrated at the intermediate distinction (“High Honors”), indicating that credentials are most informative when they separate above- from below-average students. We find that High Honors accelerate school-to-work transitions, increasing the monthly job-finding rate by about 40%. Honors also generate an initial wage premium, which fades within two years, and lead to persistent improvements in job quality, including greater access to master’s-level positions and faster transitions to permanent contracts. These results highlight the role of academic distinctions as short-run signals that shape early career allocation rather than long-term earnings.
https://docs.iza.org/dp18567.pdf
IZA DP No. 18568
Lois Miller:
Switching Schools: Effects of College Transfers
Abstract:
Using Texas administrative data and a regression discontinuity design, I study how transferring between colleges affects students’ earnings. I leverage applications and admissions data to uncover unpublished GPA cutoffs used for transfer student admissions at each fouryear institution, then use these cutoffs as an instrument for transfer. I do not find positive earnings returns for academically marginal students who transfer from two-year to four-year colleges or from less-resourced four-year colleges to flagship colleges and show suggestive evidence of negative returns. Mechanisms include academic “mismatch” among two-year to four-year transfers, and substitution out of high-paying majors for four-year to flagship transfers.
https://docs.iza.org/dp18568.pdf
IZA DP No. 18575
Jack Britton, Nick Ridpath, Carmen Villa, Ben Waltmann:
Paying Disadvantaged Teenagers to Stay in School
Abstract:
We evaluate the Education Maintenance Allowance, a large conditional cash transfer scheme that paid low-income teenagers in England to remain in education beyond age 16. Using the staggered national roll-out of the programme and linked administrative data tracking education, earnings, welfare payments and criminal convictions to age 31, we find no significant overall effect of the policy on labour market outcomes or criminality. High-attaining students were more likely to attend university but no more likely to graduate. Low-attaining students committed fewer crimes. We estimate the Marginal Value of Public Funds was 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.52–1.29); even at the upper bound of this interval, benefits barely outweigh costs.
https://docs.iza.org/dp18575.pdf
These new IZA Discussion Papers are now available online.
DP 18523 - Helal/Hiraki/Patrinos:
Returns to Education in the United States: A Comparison of OLS and Double Machine Learning Methods
DP 18530 - Malacrino/Nocito/Saggio:
Do Reforms Aimed at Reducing Time to Graduation Work? Evidence from the Italian Higher Education System
DP 18547 - Sonedda/Matranga/Vernasca/Rossi/Figari:
Levelling up? The Role of Need and Merit Based University Grants in Non-Selective Higher Education
DP 18567 - Astruc--Le Souder/Bargain/Locks:
A Question of Honor? The Labor Market Advantage of Academic Signaling
DP 18568 - Miller:
Switching Schools: Effects of College Transfers
DP 18575 - Britton/Ridpath/Villa/Waltmann:
Paying Disadvantaged Teenagers to Stay in School
Please find the abstracts and download links below.
IZA DP No. 18523
Al Mansor Helal, Ryotaro Hiraki, Harry Anthony Patrinos:
Returns to Education in the United States: A Comparison of OLS and Double Machine Learning Methods
Abstract:
This study examines the economic returns to education in the U.S. using 2024 CPS data and compares Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with a Double Machine Learning (DML) framework incorporating models such as random forests, boosted trees, lasso, GAMs, and neural networks (MLP). Results show consistent returns of 8 to 9 percent per additional year of schooling across methods. Simulations reveal that all predictors perform well under linear assumptions if hyperparameters are optimally adjusted, while OLS/Lasso suffer from nonlinearity. Findings suggest that OLS remains robust in low-dimensional, near-linear contexts, offering practical guidance for economists and policymakers balancing model complexity and interpretability in education research.
https://docs.iza.org/dp18523.pdf
IZA DP No. 18530
Davide Malacrino, Samuel Nocito, Raffaele Saggio:
Do Reforms Aimed at Reducing Time to Graduation Work? Evidence from the Italian Higher Education System
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of a reform aimed at expediting graduation times in Italian universities by reducing the number of exams students must pass in order to graduate. Using event-study estimates that leverage the reform's staggered implementation, we find that this policy led to an increase in on-time graduation rates but also resulted in a decreased probability of employment one-year post-graduation. However, this negative effect reverses into a positive one in the medium run. We show that these patterns are explained by students using the time gained from earlier graduation to pursue additional educational qualifications.
https://docs.iza.org/dp18530.pdf
IZA DP No. 18547
Daniela Sonedda, Marcello Matranga, Gianluigi Vernasca, Mariacristina Rossi, Francesco Figari:
Levelling up? The Role of Need and Merit Based University Grants in Non-Selective Higher Education
Abstract:
We study the interaction between need- and merit-based university grants in a non-selective higher education system. Using administrative data from a northern Italian university, we analyse how eligibility criteria affect enrolment, academic performance, and labour market outcomes. We document a trade-off between the two criteria, with merit requirements acting as endogenous screening. We rationalise this trade-off with a three-period model predicting that merit thresholds increase effort among students with higher expected ability but may discourage effort among students at risk of falling short, as losing the grant reduces expected utility. We support these predictions using a difference-in-differences estimator for multiple treatments, separately analysing students switching into and out of need- and merit-based eligibility. Our results show that grants target disadvantaged but academically strong students, generate perverse incentive effects that vary by gender, and fail to retain a substantial share of initial recipients.
https://docs.iza.org/dp18547.pdf
IZA DP No. 18567
Mael Astruc--Le Souder, Olivier B. Bargain, Gedeão Locks:
A Question of Honor? The Labor Market Advantage of Academic Signaling
Abstract:
As tertiary education expands, employers increasingly rely on academic distinctions to screen among similarly qualified graduates. We study the labor-market effects of honors using administrative and survey data on Sorbonne master’s graduates. We exploit France’s fixed GPA thresholds for honors assignment to implement a fuzzy regression discontinuity design. Returns are concentrated at the intermediate distinction (“High Honors”), indicating that credentials are most informative when they separate above- from below-average students. We find that High Honors accelerate school-to-work transitions, increasing the monthly job-finding rate by about 40%. Honors also generate an initial wage premium, which fades within two years, and lead to persistent improvements in job quality, including greater access to master’s-level positions and faster transitions to permanent contracts. These results highlight the role of academic distinctions as short-run signals that shape early career allocation rather than long-term earnings.
https://docs.iza.org/dp18567.pdf
IZA DP No. 18568
Lois Miller:
Switching Schools: Effects of College Transfers
Abstract:
Using Texas administrative data and a regression discontinuity design, I study how transferring between colleges affects students’ earnings. I leverage applications and admissions data to uncover unpublished GPA cutoffs used for transfer student admissions at each fouryear institution, then use these cutoffs as an instrument for transfer. I do not find positive earnings returns for academically marginal students who transfer from two-year to four-year colleges or from less-resourced four-year colleges to flagship colleges and show suggestive evidence of negative returns. Mechanisms include academic “mismatch” among two-year to four-year transfers, and substitution out of high-paying majors for four-year to flagship transfers.
https://docs.iza.org/dp18568.pdf
IZA DP No. 18575
Jack Britton, Nick Ridpath, Carmen Villa, Ben Waltmann:
Paying Disadvantaged Teenagers to Stay in School
Abstract:
We evaluate the Education Maintenance Allowance, a large conditional cash transfer scheme that paid low-income teenagers in England to remain in education beyond age 16. Using the staggered national roll-out of the programme and linked administrative data tracking education, earnings, welfare payments and criminal convictions to age 31, we find no significant overall effect of the policy on labour market outcomes or criminality. High-attaining students were more likely to attend university but no more likely to graduate. Low-attaining students committed fewer crimes. We estimate the Marginal Value of Public Funds was 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.52–1.29); even at the upper bound of this interval, benefits barely outweigh costs.
https://docs.iza.org/dp18575.pdf
IZA DP Alerts | www.iza.org
If you have trouble downloading the papers, or for any other questions regarding the IZA Discussion Paper Series, please contact iza...@liser.lu.
IZA@LISER Network
Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)
11, Porte des Sciences, L-4366 Esch-sur-Alzette / Belval
Privacy Policy | Manage your subscriptions
If you have trouble downloading the papers, or for any other questions regarding the IZA Discussion Paper Series, please contact iza...@liser.lu.
IZA@LISER Network
Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)
11, Porte des Sciences, L-4366 Esch-sur-Alzette / Belval
Privacy Policy | Manage your subscriptions
IZA DP Alerts
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