New IZA DPs -- Crime, Violence and War

[IZA Publications]

Dear Italo Gutierrez,

These new IZA Discussion Papers are now available online.

DP 18028 - Bonilla-Mejía/Bracco/Ham Gonzalez/Peñaloza-Pacheco:
Is Drug-Related Violence Fueling Emigration from Central America?
DP 18076 - Meier/Levav/Meier/Avnaim:
Early Release via Parole and Recidivism
DP 18087 - Albarrán/Robles/Sanz-de-Galdeano:
The Aftermath of Peace: The Impact of the FARC’s Ceasefire on Forced Displacement in Colombia

Please find the abstracts and download links below.

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IZA DP No. 18028

Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía, Jessica Bracco, Andres Ham Gonzalez, Leonardo Peñaloza-Pacheco:

Is Drug-Related Violence Fueling Emigration from Central America?

Abstract:
We study how drug-related violence affects emigration from Central America, a region with rapidly rising migration to the United States. Using multiple data sources, we apply an instrumental variables strategy based on proximity to drug-trafficking routes and coca production in Colombia. We find that violence significantly increases intentions, plans, and preparations to emigrate—especially to the U.S.—with stronger effects among young and high-skilled individuals. Mediation analysis suggests this response is driven by declining economic activity and, more importantly, deteriorating labor market conditions caused by escalating violence.

https://docs.iza.org/dp18028.pdf

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IZA DP No. 18076

Armando N. Meier, Jonathan Levav, Stephan Meier, Liora G. Avnaim:

Early Release via Parole and Recidivism

Abstract:
Does early release decrease or increase the probability that ex-convicts will return to prison? We exploit unique data from Israeli courts, where appearance before the judge throughout the day has an arbitrary component. We first show that judges more often deny parole requests of prisoners appearing further from the judges' last break. We then use this arbitrary variation in early releases and find that early releases reduce the propensity of prisoners to return to prison. Robustness checks suggest that later and earlier cases are largely comparable and that potential selection is unlikely to explain the results.

https://docs.iza.org/dp18076.pdf

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IZA DP No. 18087

Pedro Albarrán, Antonio Robles, Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano:

The Aftermath of Peace: The Impact of the FARC’s Ceasefire on Forced Displacement in Colombia

Abstract:
Colombia’s prolonged conflict has made the country one of the most affected by forced internal displacement (FID) in the world. This study examines the impact of the FARC’s 2014 unilateral and permanent ceasefire on FID. We use a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits the timing of the ceasefire and the pre-conflict distribution of FARC presence across municipalities. Results show a substantial reduction in severe displacement episodes in affected areas, with effects that emerged gradually and persisted over time. These findings highlight the importance of stability and the effective implementation of peace agreements in mitigating FID and its far-reaching consequences.

https://docs.iza.org/dp18087.pdf

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[IZA Publications]