Iran Newsclips, February 25, 2015
david.cutler
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Editorial: An Emerging Nuclear Deal With Iran, New York Times
Pillar: Get over it: There’s no better deal coming on Iran’s nuclear program, Reuters
Perry, O'Keef, Stavridis and Reeder: Let’s Make the Deal with Iran, Politico
Ignatius: A compelling argument on Iran, Washington Post
U.S., Israel Trade Barbs Over Iran Talks, Wall Street Journal
US experts converge on breakout formula for Iran talks, Al-Monitor
EU Says Iran Nuke Deal 'At Hand,' RFE/RL
Parsi: Netanyahu has crossed the point of no return on Iran, CNN
Netanyahu: World powers 'have given up' in Iran nuke talks, AP
Netanyahu says respects Obama but no choice on Iran, AFP
Liberman, Yadlin: speech won't stop Iranian nuke, Al-Monitor
Iran's Intent is the Real Issue, Says Former IAEA Inspector, The Real News
Marashi: Undivided Tehran, Foreign Affairs
In holy city, Iran's Rouhani seeks clergy's backing for nuclear talks, Reuters
Landau and Stein: A Movement Betrayed: The Arms Control Crowd's Iran Hypocrisy, The National Interest
Report: Saudis might help Israel attack Iran in exchange for progress in peace process, Jerusalem Post
Iran stages war games, boats hit mock-up U.S. ship, Reuters
Libyan MP Says Iran Should Bolster Role to Stem Chaos, Voice of America
Iran analyst: no accountability makes Ahmadinejad return likely, Al-Monitor
Editorial: An Emerging Nuclear Deal With Iran, New York Times, February 25, 2015
Critics of any deal — including those in Congress, such as Senator Mark Kirk, a Republican of Illinois, and Senator Robert Menendez, a Democrat of New Jersey; and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel — demand complete dismantlement of Iran’s program given the country’s history of lying about its efforts to produce nuclear fuel and pursue other weapons-related activities. But their desired outcome simply cannot be achieved. President George W. Bush wasn’t able to secure that goal in 2003 when Iran had only a few dozen centrifuges, the machines that enrich uranium for nuclear fuel. Now, 12 years later, Iran has an estimated 19,000 centrifuges, not to mention scores of other facilities, including some that have been hardened to withstand a military attack.
Pillar: Get over it: There’s no better deal coming on Iran’s nuclear program, Reuters, February 25, 2015
Members of Congress who seem primed to oppose whatever agreement emerges from the negotiations usually base their opposition on the idea that rejecting the agreement would clear the way for a “better deal.” That belief is a fantasy. If the agreement reached in these negotiations is killed, there probably won’t be another chance for many years. There is no mysterious process that could cause a better deal to materialize. As for imposing additional sanctions, there is nothing in the Iranians’ record to suggest that at some level of economic pain they would cry uncle and capitulate to hard-line demands.
Perry, O'Keef, Stavridis and Reeder: Let’s Make the Deal with Iran, Politico, February 25, 2015
We need to support the negotiations and play this hand for all it is worth in the interest of our national security and that of all our allies. Even with an agreement, considerable effort will be necessary to reassure our friends in the region that we haven’t struck a deal just to say we did. For that matter, the American people will need to be convinced of its efficacy and verifiability, which won’t be a simple task. Meanwhile, the current public flap between the Congressional leadership and the President over the Israeli Prime Minister’s appearance has only served to distract from the more substantive debate over what constitutes an acceptable agreement. Let’s pull together and seek a diplomatic solution. If an agreement is reached, fully studied and deemed inadequate, there will be more than enough support for stronger measures. But none of those options will be as desirable or effective as an acceptable negotiated settlement.
Ignatius: A compelling argument on Iran, Washington Post, February 24, 2015
President Obama might make a similar retort to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attack on the alleged “bad deal” the United States is contemplating with Iran. Netanyahu rejects any concessions that allow Iran to enrich uranium; he thinks the U.S. goal of a one-year “breakout” period before Iran could build a bomb isn’t enough. To which several leading administration officials respond: Okay, then, what’s a better practical idea for controlling Iran’s nuclear program? They see in Netanyahu’s maximalist goals an air of unreality — of fantasy, even. They grant that their solution isn’t perfect. But they argue that it’s far better for Israel and the West than any other plausible scenario.
U.S., Israel Trade Barbs Over Iran Talks, Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2015
In a televised interview on Tuesday, President Barack Obama ’s national security adviser, Susan Rice , castigated Mr. Netanyahu, saying the Israeli leader’s plan to address a joint session of Congress next week has been “destructive” to the relationship between the two countries. On Wednesday, Mr. Netanyahu responded, doubling down on his plans to speak in Washington and assailing international talks over Iran’s nuclear program. But U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry , testifying before Congress, questioned Mr. Netanyahu’s judgment on the issue. “He may have a judgment that just may not be correct here,” Mr. Kerry told lawmakers.
US experts converge on breakout formula for Iran talks, Al-Monitor, February 24, 2015
As negotiators close in on a possible nuclear agreement with Iran, David Albright, one of the most widely quoted Washington experts on the issue, says that a formula that allows Iran to operate 6,000 rudimentary centrifuges but keep a stockpile of only 500 kilograms (2,205 pounds) of low-enriched uranium (LEU) would provide assurance that Iran could not produce fuel for a nuclear weapon for a year without detection.
EU Says Iran Nuke Deal 'At Hand,' RFE/RL, February 24, 2015
he European Union's foreign policy chief has said a nuclear deal with Iran was "at hand," urging different sides to show political will ahead of a new round of talks scheduled in Geneva next week. Federica Mogherini, whose predecessor Catherine Ashton chairs the talks in Geneva, said February 24, "We cannot miss this opportunity." Speaking at Chatham House, a think tank in London, Mogherini said, "A good deal is at hand if the parties will keep cooperating as they did so far and if we have enough political will from all sides to agree on a good deal and sell it domestically."
Parsi: Netanyahu has crossed the point of no return on Iran, CNN, February 25, 2015
By now, Netanyahu has crossed the real "point of no return." Confidence in him is completely lost in the White House, so he cannot adopt Obama's posture. His only remaining options is to double down on opposing a nuclear deal with Iran, even at the cost of an open war with the American president, of damaging U.S.-Israel relations beyond Obama, and of making Israel a partisan issue. Such is the logic of adopting extremist positions. Rather than depriving the other side of options and maneuverability, Netanyahu has painted Israel in a corner.
Netanyahu: World powers 'have given up' in Iran nuke talks, AP, February 25, 2015
"From the agreement that is forming it appears that they (world powers) have given up on that commitment and are accepting that Iran will gradually, within a few years, develop capabilities to produce material for many nuclear weapons," he said. "They might accept this but I am not willing to accept this."
Netanyahu says respects Obama but no choice on Iran, AFP, February 25, 2015
"I respect the White House and the US president but on a serious subject, it's my duty to do everything for Israel's security," Netanyahu said during a campaign rally at a West Bank settlement. "Under the agreement that is being prepared, we have reason to worry... if the world powers have reached an agreement with Iran," he added.
Liberman, Yadlin: speech won't stop Iranian nuke, Al-Monitor, February 24, 2015
According to Yadlin, policy is not created by speeches, complaints, gabfests or accusations. The agreement between the powers and Iran has not yet been consolidated, the odds for its emergence are not clear and at least nine parameters in the agreement have to be examined to reach clear-cut conclusions. Yadlin says, in closed talks, that Iran has been a nuclear threshold state for three years already; it happened on Netanyahu’s watch and it is Netanyahu’s responsibility. It is incredible, Yadlin says, that we have reached a situation in which the US side excludes Israel and talks to Iran. One of Israel’s main mistakes all along, according to Yadlin, was its total opposition to an interim agreement with Iran. This caused Israel to be excluded from the game entirely and the discussion, but afterward Israel supported the extension of the same interim agreement that it had opposed.
Iran's Intent is the Real Issue, Says Former IAEA Inspector, The Real News, February 25, 2015
Kelley: I mean, we're talking about numbers where someone says, well, they'll make enough material in one year to make one bomb. Then someone else says, well, let's change it so it's enough material in two years to make one bomb. Well, one bomb doesn't make a stockpile. You're going to need ten bombs or something like that to even be considered a nuclear power, or you'll just be a nuclear target if you have one bomb. So the whole thing is really arguing about angels on the head of a pin. This is not a mature technical argument. This is a purely political one.
Marashi: Undivided Tehran, Foreign Affairs, February 25, 2015
Although many observers have pointed to rifts between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani, Iranian leaders have made a concerted effort to appear united on policy issues—whether there is a nuclear deal or not. Neither Khamenei nor Rouhani wants disputes between them to go public because it would almost certainly encourage hard-line pressure groups, which have used violence and intimidation to fight the talks. These same groups were instrumental in digging the ditch that the Islamic Republic currently finds itself in.
In holy city, Iran's Rouhani seeks clergy's backing for nuclear talks, Reuters, February 25, 2015
"Like all of the days of the history of this revolution, the government desires the support of the people and especially the support of the people of Qom, the seminary and the senior clerics." But Rouhani also said there would be no tolerance of those who try to impair the government's efforts. "We will always respect critics and we tell them, just like supporters, that they have received government protection and will continue to do so," Rouhani said. "But subversion has no place in this country."
Landau and Stein: A Movement Betrayed: The Arms Control Crowd's Iran Hypocrisy, The National Interest, February 25, 2015
But what about the implications for the nonproliferation regime? This is surely the bread and butter of the arms controllers. Why are we not hearing their outrage that after years of fruitless negotiations, the P5+1 seems poised to agree to a deal that will give Iran a breakout capability? Why do they not say that this is a very hard blow to the NPT regime that purports to stop nuclear proliferation, and that it is likely to spur additional proliferation in the region? Why are the professional arms controllers not expressing concern that this Iran deal will create new realities on the ground, which will inspire other potential proliferators?
Report: Saudis might help Israel attack Iran in exchange for progress in peace process, Jerusalem Post, February 24, 2015
In private talks with European sources, the Saudis have expressed their willingness to cooperate with Israel on Iran, including use of Saudi air space by the IDF for a possible air strike, according to a report by Channel 2. Cooperation with Saudi Arabia would not come free, however. According to the report, the Saudi officials said they would need to see progress between Israelis and Palestinians before having enough legitimacy to allow Israel to use their air space.
Iran stages war games, boats hit mock-up U.S. ship, Reuters, February 25, 2015
"With attention to the situation in the region, we have noticeably expanded the defense budget of the armed forces to ensure the stable security of the region," Larijani told a news conference before the exercises, according to Fars News. State TV footage showed a number of gunboats swarming a huge model warship and blasting it with missiles. The "maquette of an American aircraft carrier" was built to scale and targeted with cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, according to Fars News, which is linked to the Revolutionary Guard.
Libyan MP Says Iran Should Bolster Role to Stem Chaos, Voice of America, February 25, 2015
Days after militants affiliated with the Islamic State group claimed responsibility for a bomb attack on the residence of the Iranian ambassador in Tripoli, a prominent Libyan lawmaker and former rights activist said Iran has taken an ineffective, hands-off approach regarding his country. “The Islamic Republic of Iran is a major force in the region. It should play a positive role,” Ali Ramadan Abuzaakouk said in an interview with the Voice of America’s Persian-language Ofogh (Horizon) show.
Iran analyst: no accountability makes Ahmadinejad return likely, Al-Monitor, February 24, 2015
Sadegh Zibakalam, an outspoken Tehran University professor who is a supporter of President Hassan Rouhani’s negotiations with the West and a target of Iran’s hard-liners, wrote an interesting column in Shargh daily about the likelihood of Ahmadinejad’s return to politics. Rather than focusing on whether or not Ahmadinejad has the political clout or the blessing of the supreme leader to return to politics, he focused on some of the institutional problems within the Iranian executive branch. Zibakalam wrote that anyone who chants “on the life of any real man, Ahmadinejad will return” has “an incorrect understanding of the world of politics in Iran” because there is no need for such chants. He explained, “Our executive system has two characteristics that make the return of Ahmadinejad likely; first, accountability is not taken very seriously in our executive system.”