Iran Newsclips, February 26, 2015
david.cutler
Quick Links:
Kerry To Meet Russia, Iran FMs Next Week, RFE/RL
What Americans really think about Iran’s nukes, The Hill
Aronoff and Fleshler: What we’d like to hear from Netanyahu on Iran, JTA
Einhorn: Deterring an Iranian Nuclear Breakout, New York Times
Soderberg and Bradshaw: Give Strategic Patience a Chance, US News and World Report
Corker Wants Congress to Review Any Nuclear Deal with Iran, Bloomberg
U.S. Lawmakers Criticize Human Rights Abuses In Iran, RFE/RL
EU Foreign-Policy Chief Sees Progress on Iran Nuclear Talks, Wall Street Journal
Crowley: Why Israel is fighting Obama's Iran deal, Politico
Duss: The Obama-Bibi Split Is About Policy, Not Protocol—And It May Be Permanent, Tablet
Vaez: Rouhani, Khamenei on same page in nuclear talks, Al-Monitor
Iran 'bound' to complete talks by March 31, Al-Monitor
Nuclear Deal Could Increase Pressure On Rohani, RFE/RL
CIA Evidence from Whistleblower Trial Could Tilt Iran Nuclear Talks, Huffington Post
U.S. casts doubt on secret Iran nuke facility, USA Today
Why Iran Believes ISIS is a U.S. Creation, Time
Iran Rejects Claims Of Role In Yemen Crisis, RFE/RL
In Iran, Middlemen Can Get Cash in or Out—for a Fee, Wall Street Journal
Activists Ask FIFA to Intervene to End Iran’s Ban on Women in Stadiums, ICHRI
Iranian Pro-Reform Party Holds First Congress, RFE/RL
Nada: Economic Trends, Iran Primer
Kerry To Meet Russia, Iran FMs Next Week, RFE/RL, February 26, 2015
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will meet with his Russian and Iranian counterparts in Switzerland on March 2. Kerry will hold talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the Ukraine crisis, less than a week after Kerry accused Russian officials of "lying...to my face" about Moscow's support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. Kerry will also address a high-level meeting of the UN Human Rights Council while in Geneva. He will then go to the Swiss resort town of Montreux to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif for talks on a deal curbing Iran's controversial nuclear program in exchange for relief for Tehran from economic sanctions.
What Americans really think about Iran’s nukes, The Hill, February 26, 2015
To hear the White House tell it, our nagging Iranian problem might soon be a thing of the past. As the March deadline for nuclear negotiations nears, administration officials and sympathetic onlookers have become increasingly optimistic about an impending breakthrough with the Islamic Republic over its atomic ambitions. The American public, however, isn’t nearly so sure. Those are the conclusions of a new survey on global threats from the Gallup organization. The poll, carried out in early February, found that more than three-quarters (77 percent) of respondents viewed Iran’s development of a nuclear capability as a “critical threat” to American security. (Another 16 percent of those polled ranked the issue as “important but not critical.”)
Aronoff and Fleshler: What we’d like to hear from Netanyahu on Iran, JTA, February 26, 2015
Is there any outcome you would endorse that Iran could conceivably accept? You have made clear that you want Iran to be stripped of its nuclear capacity, without even a limited ability to enrich uranium. But people involved in the negotiations say the zero enrichment demand cannot be achieved because Iran would never accept it. If that is your demand, aren’t you precluding any possibility of a negotiated deal? You are reportedly going to call for tougher sanctions on Iran. If they are imposed, do you expect that any Iranian leader would survive if he proposed relinquishing all nuclear research and development, which has been a national priority since the days of the shah? We’ve searched hard and can’t find any experts on Iran who believe that will be possible.
Einhorn: Deterring an Iranian Nuclear Breakout, New York Times, February 26, 2015
Moreover, in a fundamental sense, it is too late to eliminate an Iranian enrichment capability. Iran already has the knowledge of how to produce and operate centrifuges. Even if somehow Tehran could be coerced into dismantling its current enrichment program, it would retain the ability to reconstitute it at a future time. Fortunately, even if an agreement cannot eliminate Iran’s capability to enrich uranium to weapons grade, it can prevent Iran from exercising that capability. It can do so by deterring Iran’s leaders from making the decision to break out of the agreement and produce nuclear weapons. To deter such a decision, a deal should meet three requirements.
Soderberg and Bradshaw: Give Strategic Patience a Chance, US News and World Report, February 26, 2015
Consider the alternative. If these negotiations fail and Iran moves further toward a nuclear weapons capability, Israel will likely strike out at Iran’s nuclear facilities. While such action may delay the program, the national fervor it would unleash would make a nuclear program the goal of most Iranians. The United States would inevitably be drawn into the crisis, further complicating our efforts to stem the crises in Iraq and Syria. The hardliners in Tehran would be strengthened, pushing more moderate and democratic forces further into the shadows. The goal of regime change many hope for would be less, not more likely.
Corker Wants Congress to Review Any Nuclear Deal with Iran, Bloomberg, February 26, 2015
“There’s a piece of legislation that we’d like to bring forth in a markup next week and because Netanyahu is coming, we’ve been asked to hold back a week because people don’t want it to look as though the legislation is in response to him being here,” Corker, a Tennessee Republican, said Thursday at a Bloomberg breakfast in Washington.
U.S. Lawmakers Criticize Human Rights Abuses In Iran, RFE/RL, February 26, 2015
everal U.S. lawmakers criticized the “atrocious” human rights situation in Iran, including the high number of executions, the discrimination against Baha’is and the crackdown on freedom of expression. They spoke during a joint subcommittee hearing titled “The Shame of Iranian Human Rights” where they also expressed concern over the fate of several U.S. citizens detained or missing in Iran, including Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian. Republican Congresswoman Illena Ros-Lehtinen said despite promises of moderation by Iranian President Hassan Rohani, the rights situation has worsened.
EU Foreign-Policy Chief Sees Progress on Iran Nuclear Talks, Wall Street Journal, February 26, 2015
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said this week that the six powers should know soon whether a deal was attainable. However, officials have warned that significant gaps remain in the diplomacy, which aims to ensure Tehran can’t quickly amass enough material for a nuclear bomb in return for phasing out tough international sanctions. Asked if she believed the two sides were coming close to a deal, Ms. Mogherini said, “Yes, we are getting close.”
Crowley: Why Israel is fighting Obama's Iran deal, Politico, February 26, 2015
It’s not just the Israelis who are upset. Citing reports of a 10- to 15-year sunset period at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing Tuesday, the panel’s top Democrat, Robert Menendez, called that “a matter of time that is far less than anyone envisioned.” Obama officials deny that any specific sunset clause has been agreed to in the talks. “Don’t believe what you read,” Secretary of State John Kerry, who spoke at Tuesday’s hearing, told Menendez. One person who talks regularly with members of Congress about Iran says that until recently, many were unaware a nuclear deal would have any sunset clause at all.
Duss: The Obama-Bibi Split Is About Policy, Not Protocol—And It May Be Permanent, Tablet, February 26, 2015
Obama’s outreach to Iran was initially dismissed by critics as a useless gesture, but it proved to be an important force multiplier for sanctions pressure. As Iranian human-rights lawyer Shirin Ebadi put it, by demonstrating willingness to engage with Iran, Obama showed Iranians and the world “that it is the Iranian regime that doesn’t want to talk,” thereby strengthening an international coalition to put pressure on Iran through economic sanctions.
Vaez: Rouhani, Khamenei on same page in nuclear talks, Al-Monitor, February 26, 2015
In fact, there is no evidence that the Iranian president’s criteria for a good deal are much different from the supreme leader’s. Delivering on his promise to resuscitate Iran’s economy will be nearly impossible without significant sanctions relief, which itself is impossible without a nuclear accord. That is why Rouhani probably agrees with Khamenei that “no deal is better than a bad deal,” since delayed sanctions relief offered by the latter would produce minimal economic reprieve.
Iran 'bound' to complete talks by March 31, Al-Monitor, February 26, 2015
“This time in the negotiations, from the viewpoint of time, we are bound to conclude the negotiations by March 31,” Nobakht said. “Of course, not just at the level of general agreements but also on the specifics we have to reach results.” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham previously was criticized for suggesting that at the end of March there would be a political “understanding” rather than an “agreement.” It seems now, given Nobakht’s comments, there appears to be a push by the administration and negotiators to have a complete deal by the end of March.
Nuclear Deal Could Increase Pressure On Rohani, RFE/RL, February 26, 2015
In an interview with the popular Fararu.com site, analyst and university professor Sadegh Zibakalam predicted that, if a lasting nuclear deal is reached, Rohani will face a new wave of opposition from his hard-line opponents who would focus on issues such as culture and the economy. Rohani is already facing criticism over his cultural and social policies that hard-liners find too liberal. Zibakalam believes that the criticism will increase after a deal is struck.
CIA Evidence from Whistleblower Trial Could Tilt Iran Nuclear Talks, Huffington Post, February 26, 2015
A month after former CIA officer Jeffrey Sterling was convicted on nine felony counts with circumstantial metadata, the zealous prosecution is now having potentially major consequences -- casting doubt on the credibility of claims by the U.S. government that Iran has developed a nuclear weapons program. With negotiations between Iran and the United States at a pivotal stage, fallout from the trial's revelations about the CIA's Operation Merlin is likely to cause the International Atomic Energy Agency to re-examine U.S. assertions that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons.
U.S. casts doubt on secret Iran nuke facility, USA Today, February 26, 2015
"We'll look into it, but have no reason to believe the claims from MEK are accurate," State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters, using the Persian initials of the group, also known as the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI).
Why Iran Believes ISIS is a U.S. Creation, Time, February 26, 2015
“We believe that the West has been influential in the creation of ISIS for a number of reasons. First to engage Muslims against each other, to waste their energy and in this way Israel’s security would be guaranteed or at least enhanced,” says Ganji. “Secondly, an ugly, violent and homicidal face of Islam is presented to the world. And third, to create an inconvenience for Iran.”
Iran Rejects Claims Of Role In Yemen Crisis, RFE/RL, February 26, 2015
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham said on February 25 that Kerry's statement is "nothing but a blame game completely in contradiction to what was previously mentioned by U.S. officials." Afkham did not specify which U.S. officials or what they allegedly said. The official IRNA news agency quoted Afkham as saying, "Iran's fundamental approach is that nations should determine their fate with their own hands."
In Iran, Middlemen Can Get Cash in or Out—for a Fee, Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2015
Violating the international sanctions on Iran could endanger the international partners both men rely on for their living. But they agreed that the parts deal could be done legally, though it wouldn’t be easy—or cheap. Messrs. Pakzad and Mehran are members of a tightknit community of middlemen, most of them educated abroad, that help Iranian companies navigate the maze of financial and trade restrictions imposed on their country by the U.S. and its allies, who say the Islamic republic is pursuing a nuclear weapon.
Activists Ask FIFA to Intervene to End Iran’s Ban on Women in Stadiums, ICHRI, February 25, 2015
In a letter addressed to the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), the Swiss-based organization responsible for administering the World Cup soccer competitions, 190 Iranian activists have asked FIFA to suspend Iran’s membership in FIFA, in response to the Iranian government’s ban on the presence of Iranian women in soccer stadiums.
Iranian Pro-Reform Party Holds First Congress, RFE/RL, February 26, 2015
A new Iranian political party viewed as pro-reformist has held its first congress in Tehran. The Nedaye Iranian (Call of Iranians) party was formed in December and plans to compete in legislative elections in 2016. One of the founders of the party, Mohammad Sadegh Kharrazi, was an adviser to former reformist President Mohammad Khatami.
Nada: Economic Trends, Iran Primer, February 25, 2015
The most important developments in early 2015 were Iran’s reactions to low oil prices. The price of crude oil was still hovering around $60 a barrel in February, down from $115 in June 2014. In January, Iran’s government readjusted the new budget to assume an oil price of $40 a barrel, down from the $72 price included in the initial draft presented by President Hassan Rouhani to parliament in December. The previous year’s budget was based on the price of $100 per barrel. Also in February, lawmakers voted cut expected oil revenues in the draft budget by 25 percent to $18.5 billion to compensate for low prices.