Iran Newsclips, March 2, 2015
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Obama says Iran must halt nuclear work for at least a decade, Reuters
Iran Bill Becoming Nail-Biter for Obama, CQ
Graham: Senate Could Overcome Veto of Iran Deal Review Legislation, CQ
US, Iran launch new round of nuclear talks, AFP
Goldenberg: Better Than the Alternatives, US News and World Report
Jeffrey: Dealing with a Bad Iranian Nuclear Agreement, Washington Institute
Cohen: The Iranian nuclear deal looks like a reasonable compromise, Haaretz
Netanyahu warns Obama on Iran deal, says he means no disrespect, Reuters
Iran says nuclear deal hinges on U.S. will to lift sanctions, Reuters
Kerry says 'long way to go' to reach Iran nuclear deal, Reuters
Iran offer to cut centrifuges by a third led to progress in nuclear talks, Haaretz
Editorial: Iran on the Nuclear Edge, Wall Street Journal
Reif: How to Actually Prevent a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East, The National Interest
Daniel Levy’s Take on Netanyahu’s AIPAC Speech, Lobe Log
Takeyh: The strategic genius of Iran’s supreme leader, Washington Post
Iranian Cleric Says 'Final Steps' Being Taken In Nuclear Talks, RFE/RL
Iran's cooperation with IAEA at risk if nuclear talks fail, Al-Monitor
U.N. nuclear watchdog says pace of Iran's cooperation slow, Reuters
Why doesn't Turkey speak up on Iran nuclear issue? Al-Monitor
First Iranian Direct Flight Lands in Shi'ite-Held Yemen Capital, Voice of America
Rohani Adviser Says Rights Violations Hurting Iran, RFE/RL
Silencing Khatami? Lobe Log
Iran's Guards increase monitoring of social media: state TV, Reuters
Oil tumbles on Iran, Libya; worry about high supply returns, Reuters
Obama says Iran must halt nuclear work for at least a decade, Reuters, March 2, 2015
“If, in fact, Iran is willing to agree to double-digit years of keeping their program where it is right now and, in fact, rolling back elements of it that currently exist ... if we’ve got that, and we’ve got a way of verifying that, there’s no other steps we can take that would give us such assurance that they don’t have a nuclear weapon," he said. The U.S. goal is to make sure "there’s at least a year between us seeing them try to get a nuclear weapon and them actually being able to obtain one," Obama said.
Iran Bill Becoming Nail-Biter for Obama, CQ, March 2, 2015
Rep. Brad Sherman, a senior Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, on Sunday told an audience at an AIPAC panel that the recent partisan squabble over the manner and timing of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Tuesday address to Congress had alienated a number of his party colleagues and made it unlikely that there would be enough votes to defeat a presidential veto. Laicie Heeley, policy director at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, which opposes the two bills, said a floor vote on either measure could be too close to call. “Ultimately, it’s going to depend on the finer points of this particular legislation,” she said, referring to the Corker-Menendez bill.
Graham: Senate Could Overcome Veto of Iran Deal Review Legislation, CQ, March 2, 2015
“To the president: I expect Congress will reject your insistence that we shut up and go in a corner and just not have a say,” South Carolina GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham said Sunday on the Fox News Channel, adding that he thought there would be in excess of the 67 votes needed in the Senate to override a veto. “It is not complicating the negotiations for Congress to look at the deal after the fact and decide if we want to relieve the sanctions we’ve created,” Graham said. “The congressional sanctions passed 100 to nothing, over the objections of Hillary [Rodham] Clinton. It is the Congress whose imposed sanctions have got the Iranians to the table.”
US, Iran launch new round of nuclear talks, AFP, March 2, 2015
US Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met twice in a Swiss lakeside hotel at the start of a series of sessions which are scheduled to stretch into Wednesday afternoon. They were accompanied by US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz and Iranian nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi, who according to the Iranian news agency IRNA had first met earlier for about 90 minutes. Iranian negotiators Abbas Araghchi and Majid Takht Ravanchi also held talks with US Under Secretary Wendy Sherman as well as the EU's deputy foreign policy chief Helga Schmid, IRNA added.
Goldenberg: Better Than the Alternatives, US News and World Report, March 2, 2015
This means that the only alternative to an agreement is a return to the conflict and sanctions that existed before the nuclear negotiations began. If the talks collapse, the United States will impose tougher sanctions and Iran will restart its nuclear program, which has been frozen for the past year. Very soon the United States may be forced to choose between military action that could result in a major regional war or the equally unappealing option of allowing Iran to become a nuclear weapons state. Faced with these two alternatives – the impossible deal or potential military action – the Obama administration has chosen the wisest course: an adequate deal. Such an agreement will not eliminate Iran’s ability to produce a bomb. But it will roll back Iran’s program to the point, where if it ever tried to weaponize, it would almost certainly be caught and attacked before it could become a nuclear weapons state.
Jeffrey: Dealing with a Bad Iranian Nuclear Agreement, Washington Institute, March 2, 2015
Of course Congress could take action to torpedo an agreement, either with new sanctions or by stripping the president of waiver authority. That would be a terrible mistake, however. Although the president could veto these actions or, if overruled, fudge compliance, such a scenario would raise doubts about whether the agreement would survive under the next president. Even if said impasse were resolved, it would devastate the foreign policy authority essential for every president. Furthermore, if Congress seeks to hurt Iran with new sanctions, it would have to target the regime's third-country trade and finances. The willingness of those countries to support extraterritorial U.S. law was stretched with the NDAA, and they would almost certainly resist new sanctions when Iran is seen as complying.
Cohen: The Iranian nuclear deal looks like a reasonable compromise, Haaretz, March 2, 2015
The devil of course is in the details, and some of them have not yet been finalized. But from what is known, in the opinion of most experts, not only is the compromise fair — a better one will be very hard to reach. There is only one alternative: continued sanctions, the collapse of the interim agreement, renewed enrichment, and in the end military conflict. It should be clear to everyone: America (including the Republicans) clearly prefers a reasonable compromise over a military conflict.
Netanyahu warns Obama on Iran deal, says he means no disrespect, Reuters, March 2, 2015
"My speech (to Congress) is not intended to show disrespect for President Obama and the office that he holds," Netanyahu said. "I deeply appreciate all that President Obama has done for Israel." Netanyahu went on to point out differences regarding the talks with Iran. "Israel and the United States agree that Iran should not have nuclear weapons but we disagree on the best way to prevent Iran from developing those nuclear weapons," he said. He said he would warn U.S. lawmakers that a deal with Iran "could threaten the survival of Israel." To underscore the point, he displayed a map that he said depicted Iranian ties to terrorism across the world.
Iran says nuclear deal hinges on U.S. will to lift sanctions, Reuters, March 2, 2015
"Our negotiating partners, particularly the Western countries and particularly the United States, must once and for all come to the understanding that sanctions and agreement don't go together," he said in Geneva. "If they want an agreement, sanctions must go... We believe all sanctions must be lifted." He told reporters that Iran, whose disagreement with six world powers over how fast sanctions should be dropped is one of the main obstacles to a final nuclear accord, had demonstrated its political will by bringing its highest authorities to the talks and leaving "no stone unturned".
Kerry says 'long way to go' to reach Iran nuclear deal, Reuters, March 2, 2015
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Monday there had been some progress in talks with Iran on its nuclear program but there was "a long way to go and the clock is ticking". He also voiced concern about the possibility of selective leaks about the talks, which he will resume with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Montreux, Switzerland. "We are concerned by reports that suggest selective details of the ongoing negotiations will be discussed publicly in the coming days," Kerry told reporters in Geneva, in what seemed an allusion to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's speech on Tuesday to the U.S. Congress. "I want to say clearly that doing so would make it more difficult to reach the goal that Israel and others say they share in order to get to a good deal," Kerry said.
Iran offer to cut centrifuges by a third led to progress in nuclear talks, Haaretz, March 1, 2015
An Iranian proposal to close down a third of its centrifuges and relinquish most of its low-enriched uranium has led to progress in talks with the six world powers in Geneva, according to Western diplomats. However, many issues remain unresolved and the chances of reaching an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program by March 30 are low, they add.
Editorial: Iran on the Nuclear Edge, Wall Street Journal, February 27, 2015
The Administration’s emerging justification for these concessions, also coming in leaks, is that a nuclear accord will become the basis for a broader rapprochement with Iran that will stabilize the Middle East. As President Obama said in December, Iran can be “a very successful regional power.” That is some gamble on a regime that continues to sponsor terrorist groups around the world, prop up the Assad regime in Syria, use proxies to overthrow the Yemen government, jail U.S. reporter Jason Rezaian on trumped-up espionage charges, and this week blew up a mock U.S. aircraft carrier in naval exercises near the Strait of Hormuz.
Reif: How to Actually Prevent a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East, The National Interest, March 2, 2015
However, the concern that an agreement allowing some Iranian enrichment will encourage the practice elsewhere is overblown. The alternative is no comprehensive P5+1 and Iran nuclear deal, which would result in a less constrained—if not unconstrained—Iranian nuclear program with less monitoring. This poses more of a threat to regional security and would be more likely to increase the possibility of a cascade of regional fuel making.
Daniel Levy’s Take on Netanyahu’s AIPAC Speech, Lobe Log, March 2, 2015
So, Netanyahu may come out of the US-Israel political brouhaha relatively unscathed, but his incoherence on the Iran issue itself is far more worrying and damaging. Netanyahu’s portrayal of Iran as an existential threat to Israel, who’s tentacles are devouring the entire region bumps up against a reality in which Iran is part of the pushback against the Islamic State (ISIS or IS), in which most Israeli security chiefs reject the existential threat narrative as shallow scaremongering and in which Netanyahu himself now seems to support an extension to the Joint Plan of Action interim agreement which he previously decried.
Takeyh: The strategic genius of Iran’s supreme leader, Washington Post, March 1, 2015
After years of defiance, Khamenei seems to appreciate that his most advantageous path to nuclear arms is through an agreement. To continue to build up his atomic infrastructure without the protective umbrella of an agreement exposes Iran to economic sanctions and the possibility of military retribution. While in the past Khamenei may have been willing to cross successive U.S. “red lines,” the price of such truculence was financial stress that he feared could provoke unrest. Unlike many of his Western interlocutors, Khamenei appreciates that his regime rests on shaky foundations and that the legitimacy of the Islamic revolution has long been forfeited. The task at hand was to find a way to forge ahead with a nuclear program while safeguarding the regime and its ideological verities.
Iranian Cleric Says 'Final Steps' Being Taken In Nuclear Talks, RFE/RL, February 27, 2015
Tehran's provisional Friday Prayers leader says the "final steps" are being taken in Iran's talks with six global powers aimed at reaching an agreement curbing Tehran's disputed nuclear program. Speaking to worshippers in the Iranian capital, Hojatoleslam Kazem Sedighi praised President Hassan Rohani for his management of the talks. Friday prayer leaders are said to receive their talking points from the office of Supreme leader Ayahollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final word on religious and political affairs in Iran.
Iran's cooperation with IAEA at risk if nuclear talks fail, Al-Monitor, February 27, 2015
In the event of a collapse of negotiations, cooperation with the IAEA is likely to be among the first victims. Any hopes of getting Iran to ratify the additional protocol, which makes many of Tehran’s current voluntary transparency measures binding, will be dashed. There is precedence in this respect. Although Iran has never ratified the additional protocol, it did provisionally implement it between December 2003 and February 2006, when Tehran was engaged in negotiations with the so-called EU-3 (Britain, France and Germany). The IAEA has been clear about the centrality of the additional protocol for its efforts; without it, the agency has said that it will “not be in a position to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran.” In other words, the Iranian nuclear dossier may never be normalized.
U.N. nuclear watchdog says pace of Iran's cooperation slow, Reuters, March 2, 2015
When asked about a time frame for the U.N. inquiry running parallel to the higher-level negotiations, International Atomic Energy Agency chief Yukiya Amano said: "It depends on the level and pace of cooperation from Iran, I cannot tell by when... "We have asked questions and the questions are clear, so (Iran) can answer." The Islamic Republic has yet to address two outstanding issues relating to alleged explosives tests and other measures that might have been used for nuclear bomb research which it should have explained away by last August.
Why doesn't Turkey speak up on Iran nuclear issue? Al-Monitor, February 26, 2015
Meanwhile, the Turkish press, including the staunchly pro-government media, is showing almost zero interest in the matter. Turkey, as a whole, seems quite uninterested. But why? There is no sensational answer to this question. The answer is rather a combination of Turkey’s increasing insularity, its failed dreams of fixing its own deal between Iran and the West, and its mixed feelings toward its Persian neighbor.
First Iranian Direct Flight Lands in Shi'ite-Held Yemen Capital, Voice of America, March 1, 2015
An Iranian airliner carrying medical supplies and aid workers landed Sunday in the Yemeni capital, Sana'a, less than 24 hours after Shi'ite rebels controlling the city signed an aviation pact with Tehran. Witnesses say senior Iranian diplomats were on hand to greet the flight -- the first since Shi'ite rebel Houthis seized control of the capital in January and placed Sunni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi under house arrest. Yemen's official Saba News Agency -- now controlled by the Shi'ite militia -- said 14 weekly flights will connect Tehran and Sana'a. However, ousted U.S.-backed President Hadi, who fled detention earlier this month to a new base in the southern city of Aden, said those who signed the pact will, in his words, "be held accountable."
Rohani Adviser Says Rights Violations Hurting Iran, RFE/RL, February 27, 2015
Ali Yunesi, a senior adviser to Iran's President Hassan Rohani and a former intelligence minister, has admitted that "many cases" of human rights violations are taking place in Iran's courts and prisons, blaming them on extremists. The human rights situation in the Islamic republic is often the subject of criticism by rights group and UN rights experts. Yet Iranian officials very rarely admit that abuses take place in the country. In a February 26 interview with the semi-official ISNA news agency, Yunesi said that hard-liners are creating trouble for the Islamic republic and damaging the country's reputation through their actions.
Silencing Khatami? Lobe Log, February 27, 2015
According to the judicial order, announced Feb. 17 by judiciary spokesman Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, the media has been banned from mentioning Khatami or publishing his statements and photographs. During a press conference, Mohseni-Ejei said that the judiciary could issue rulings regarding individuals who are considered “the leaders of the sedition,” a derogatory term used to refer to opposition leaders and 2009 presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, and Moussavi’s wife, Zahra Rahnavard, as well as Khatami himself. Originally an Arabic word, sedition, or Fetneh in Persian, implies the planning and implementing of acts that will disturb the peace and breach social, religious, or moral rules.
Iran's Guards increase monitoring of social media: state TV, Reuters, March 2, 2015
Iran monitored 8 million Facebook accounts with new software and will watch other social media sites for content that contravenes the Islamic Republic's moral codes, state television reported on Monday. The Center for Investigation of Organized Crime, a branch of the elite Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), accused Facebook of spreading immoral content and said it had arrested several users. "[Facebook] is trying to push its users toward immoral content via its suggestion system, by making them choose harmful, decadent and obscene content over beneficial and educational subject matter," the IRGC said in a statement cited by state TV and other Iranian media.
Oil tumbles on Iran, Libya; worry about high supply returns, Reuters, March 2, 2015
Analysts believe Iran will be able to boost its oil sales fairly quickly without the restrictions, raising exports by up to 1 million barrels per day (bpd). A Reuters survey last week showed Iran pumped a total of around 2.8 million bpd in February.