Iran Newsclips, February 11, 2015
david.cutler
Quick Links:
How Congress Became the Fall Guy for Obama’s Iran Deal, Foreign Policy
Obama: It's Time For Iran To Decide On Nuclear Deal, AP
Senator: It's US vs Iran in nuclear talks showdown, AFP
Ignatius: If nuclear talks with Iran fail, do nothing, The Daily Star
Rubin: The Iran deadline is not a deadline, Washington Post
Rubio: No Quick Fix for Iran Nukes Puzzle, Defense News
Mamedov: Can the EU Take the Lead on Iran? Lobe Log
Editorial: Despite minister’s words, Iran’s mistreatment of Jason Rezaian continues, Washington Post
Nader: Relax, Iran Is Not Taking Over the Middle East, The National Interest
On Revolution Day, Iran's President Calls For A 'Win-Win' Nuke Deal, NPR
After Rare Visit, Ex-U.S. Lawmaker Says Iran Yearns For Respect, RFE/RL
Rubin: Netanyahu’s Counterproductive Theatrics, Commentary
Keck: 5 Reasons Israel Won't Attack Iran, The National Interest
Iran Is Ready to Take Over Iraq’s Troops, The Daily Beast
Vatanka: An Iran-Russia Axis? Some in Tehran Aren't So Sure, The National Interest
Iran conservatives see defiance in Khamenei speech, Al-Monitor
NSA Acknowledges What We All Feared: Iran Learns From US Cyberattacks, Wired
Mousavian: 36 years after the revolution, where is Iran now? Al-Monitor
Ganji: The Green Movement Still Terrifies Iran's Leaders, The National Interest
Learning from history with Iran, Al-Monitor
How Congress Became the Fall Guy for Obama’s Iran Deal, Foreign Policy, February 10, 2015
As Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) charged at a recent hearing, the president and his team are parroting Iran’s talking points. In essence, Obama is saying that if the Iranians bolt, or the Russians start violating the sanctions regime, they’ll be fully justified in doing so. For America’s commander-in-chief to endorse the Iranian narrative in this way is a terrible mistake, a negotiating faux pax that screams fear and desperation, and cedes crucial leverage to our adversaries. Whatever criticisms he has of the Senate proposal, the president should be relentlessly warning Tehran that nothing currently being considered by Congress would warrant a decision to collapse the talks — and should they choose to do so, they’ll suffer swift and painful repercussions from a unified American government.
Obama: It's Time For Iran To Decide On Nuclear Deal, AP, February 9, 2015
Obama said the world powers negotiating with Iran are unified in their offer, while acknowledging the forceful opposition from Netanyahu. "I don't want to be coy — the prime minister and I have a very real difference around Iran's sanctions," Obama said at a White House news conference with Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, another party to the talks.
Senator: It's US vs Iran in nuclear talks showdown, AFP, February 10, 2015
Corker and the Democrat he replaced as committee chairman, Senator Robert Menendez, left the latest briefing expressing concern about the administration basing negotiations on the need to maintain Iran's potential nuclear weapons "breakout" time to at least one year. "One of my major concerns all along that is becoming more crystal clear to me, is that we are, instead of preventing proliferation, we are managing proliferation," Menendez said. Having Iran just one year away from building a bomb would be "a different world and a far more challenging world," he added.
Ignatius: If nuclear talks with Iran fail, do nothing, The Daily Star, February 11, 2015
One reason to wait for the other side’s move is to avoid being an easy target in the blame game that’s sure to come after an impasse. Iran will want to claim that it was the aggrieved party, and that its generous concessions were spurned. The U.S. could counter that Iran never agreed to a formula for guaranteeing that its nuclear program is for civilian use only. In this finger-pointing, any new U.S. sanctions could make Iran look like the victim; an Iranian push to resume large-scale enrichment would reinforce the case that Iran is pushing toward making a nuclear weapon. In such a public-opinion battle, each side might be better served initially by a “wait and see” approach that preserves options.
Rubin: The Iran deadline is not a deadline, Washington Post, February 10, 2015
Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) tells Right Turn, “Administration officials have repeatedly spoken on record about the importance of meeting a March 2015 deadline for a so-called ‘political agreement,’ but now they appear desperate to move back the goalposts after Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly said that he opposes a political agreement and wants instead a single agreement that covers, in his own words, ‘both generalities and details’.” Moving the goal posts as been the one constant in the administration’s approach to bargaining.
Rubio: No Quick Fix for Iran Nukes Puzzle, Defense News, February 10, 2015
"I think the threat of an Iranian nuclear weapons is a threat that's going to exist beyond his presidency," Rubio told CongressWatch after a larger scrum broke up. "I think he needs to do the best he can to deal with it right now," he said. "But I think it's an issue that's going to be an ongoing issue for the foreseeable future. "I think all options need to be on the table because of the risk that [a nuclear Iran] poses — not only to the US but to the region and the world, really. Those are decisions that will be made at the appropriate time."
Mamedov: Can the EU Take the Lead on Iran? Lobe Log, February 9, 2015
EU officials involved in the talks often point to the Obama administration´s desire to score a major foreign policy success as a driver of the negotiations process. But the truth is, with multiple crises in its neighborhood and various other internal challenges, the EU needs a diplomatic success story even more desperately. The interim deal with Iran got it half way there. Now is the time to finish the job.
Editorial: Despite minister’s words, Iran’s mistreatment of Jason Rezaian continues, Washington Post, February 9, 2015
Mr. Zarif’s words are contradicted — as they have been in the past — by the actual developments in Mr. Rezaian’s case. Late last month, a human rights group reported that his trial had been referred to the court of a notorious Revolutionary Court judge known for imposing harsh sentences in political cases.
Nader: Relax, Iran Is Not Taking Over the Middle East, The National Interest, February 11, 2015
But nuclear negotiations should not be held hostage to all of the things Iran may be doing right or wrong. The conflicts in the Middle East are much more complex than “Iran on the march” theories would have us believe. A diplomatic resolution of the nuclear issue can allow Washington more room to deal with Iran’s regional influence, either through further diplomatic engagement, economic pressure or enticement, military deterrence, or a combination of all of the above.
On Revolution Day, Iran's President Calls For A 'Win-Win' Nuke Deal, NPR, February 11, 2015
"The sanctions have not forced Iran to enter the talks but the impracticality of the all-out pressures on Iran and the significant advancements in Iran's peaceful nuclear program made the United States come to the negotiation table," Rouhani said. "Iran is seeking a 'win-win' outcome in the nuclear talks with world powers."
After Rare Visit, Ex-U.S. Lawmaker Says Iran Yearns For Respect, RFE/RL, February 10, 2015
A former U.S. congressman who made a rare visit to Iran in December says President Hassan Rohani and his inner circle are "deeply committed" to improving Tehran's relationship with the United States. Jim Slattery, a Kansas Democrat who served in the House of Representatives from 1983 to 1995, said he believes that if those efforts fail, "we are likely to see the return of a much more hard-line government in Iran."
Rubin: Netanyahu’s Counterproductive Theatrics, Commentary, February 8, 2015
Netanyahu’s acceptance of an invitation to address a Joint Session of Congress next month is déjà vu all over again. There was momentum within Congress among both Republicans and Democrats to ratchet up pressure on Iran in order to have leverage for a better deal. Even if tempted to exculpate Netanyahu—Obama and his close aides seem to have manufactured the crisis—Netanyahu is at fault for walking into the trap. Now instead of advancing discussion of the Iranian threat, Netanyahu has helped enable a situation whereby the discussion once again has shifted from Iran to Netanyahu himself.
Keck: 5 Reasons Israel Won't Attack Iran, The National Interest, February 9, 2015
Relatedly, an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program would be a net gain for Iran and a huge loss for Tel Aviv. Iran could use the strike to regain its popularity with the Arab street and increase the pressure against Arab rulers. As noted above, it would also lead to international sanctions collapsing, and an outpouring of sympathy for Iran in many countries around the world. Meanwhile, a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would leave Israel in a far worse-off position. Were Iran to respond by attacking U.S. regional assets, this could greatly hurt Israel’s ties with the United States at both the elite and mass levels.
Iran Is Ready to Take Over Iraq’s Troops, The Daily Beast, February 11, 2015
In an announcement that could complicate the cornerstone of America’s mission in Iraq—training Iraq’s military to fight ISIS—an Iranian general said Monday that he also is prepared to begin training Iraqi military officers. The message comes after Baghdad and Tehran reached a security agreement in December, which has not been made public but will reportedly increase military cooperation between the two countries. Washington and Tehran have quietly cooperated in the fight against ISIS largely by avoiding direct contact and keeping to separate spheres of influence. If Iran begins training Iraqi officers at the same time the U.S. carries out its own multi-year training mission, those spheres could collide.
Vatanka: An Iran-Russia Axis? Some in Tehran Aren't So Sure, The National Interest, February 11, 2015
The recent visit to Tehran by Sergei Shoigu was notable in that it was the first time in fifteen years that a Russian defense minister had visited Tehran. As such, it generated considerable speculation about an increasing closeness between Moscow and Tehran. Yet it is still too early to presume that Shoigu’s presence in Tehran is an indication of a coming strategic shift in Iranian-Russian relations. Both countries have reasons to believe that cooperation in security and economics can be mutually beneficial in the face of Western policies against them. But not everyone in Tehran is of the view that Moscow holds the key to Iran’s problems or that Russia is genuinely committed to a new approach to Iran.
Iran conservatives see defiance in Khamenei speech, Al-Monitor, February 10, 2015
Kayhan did publish his next comments, in which he said that Iran has acted logically in all of its dealings, including in the “imposed war” (what Iran calls the Iran-Iraq war) and the signing of UN Security Council Resolution 598, which brought an end to the war. Javan Online, which is believed to be affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in an article headlined, “The day of struggle is not the day of agreement,” ignored the parts of the speech in which Khamenei discussed the nuclear concessions Iran has made, focusing instead on the segments in which Khamenei took firm stances and stood by red lines.
NSA Acknowledges What We All Feared: Iran Learns From US Cyberattacks, Wired, February 10, 2015
After the Stuxnet digital weapon was discovered on machines in Iran in 2010, many security researchers warned that US adversaries would learn from this and other US attacks and develop similar techniques to target America and its allies. A newly published document leaked by Edward Snowden indicates that the NSA feared the same thing and that Iran may already be doing exactly this. The NSA document from April 2013, published today by The Intercept, shows the US intelligence community is worried that Iran has learned from attacks like Stuxnet, Flame and Duqu—all of which were created by the same teams—in order to improve its own capabilities.
Mousavian: 36 years after the revolution, where is Iran now? Al-Monitor, February 11, 2015
However, with all of its shortcomings, the Islamic Republic of Iran remains a political reality. It has firmly entrenched roots in Iran and now garners substantial geopolitical clout throughout the Middle East. After 36 years of overcoming what many thought were insurmountable obstacles, Iran has remained a strong and stable state. This is both testimony to impressive statecraft and demonstrates the necessity of a detente among the countries in the region, the West and this power that is here to stay.
Ganji: The Green Movement Still Terrifies Iran's Leaders, The National Interest, February 11, 2015
In sum, Khamenei and the hardliners made a strategic mistake by putting the Green Movement leadership under house arrest, but they remain unwilling to correct this error. Freeing the leaders of the Green Movement and other political prisoners is in Iran’s national interests and will also mend Iran’s image in the international arena. Khamenei still does not believe that democracy, respect for human rights and freedom strengthen a political system and state, because he is terrified of their consequences. Democracy will transform him, an unelected ruler for life, to one that must be elected by the people for a limited time, and must take responsibility for his actions. This is what terrifies him.
Learning from history with Iran, Al-Monitor, February 10, 2015
Has the time not come yet to get over the prejudices and misperceptions, to embrace the realities, to discern between real threats and fabricated ones and to make the right decision? Iran today is a willing and able partner for those who genuinely seek a secure and stable region. For them to benefit from this reliable partner, all it takes is to start thinking rationally, leaving behind the mentality of pressure and coercion. In the words of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, “Now, more than ever, is the time to join hands to work toward securing a better fate for all of us; a destiny based on the noble principles of mutual respect and noninterference.”