Postcapitalism or, at least, what happens to our social/political organization when robotics, 3D Printing, ubiquitous surveillance/information hit big

[Vince Koloski]

At the picnic, we had a bit of discussion about this topic. What is going to happen to society when the above mentioned take over vast areas of human endeavor and rewrite the social order and what the road will be like to get to that future. I think Craig held the flag for the end result of abundance both of the physical necessities of life and of time to live it. The opposite view might be stated that while that end result is achievable, will government and the oligarchs/monopolists allow it to happen. Or at least allow it to happen without some sort of violent social disruption. I came across an interesting article in The Guardian this weekend:  http://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/jul/17/postcapitalism-end-of-capitalism-begun?CMP=ema_565  which discusses some of these issues. The author has a book entitled "Postcapitalism" coming out at the end of the month. One of the more interesting bits was his description of a piece written by Marx around 1860 entitled "The Fragment on Machines" (http://thenewobjectivity.com/pdf/marx.pdf - although if you think the Guardian article is long, slogging through the original Marx seems endless) which, he states, anticipates the information economy of today - who knew? But a few other quotes from the article seem to capture something of what has been engrossing me for a few years now: 

"The main contradiction today is between the possibility of free, abundant goods and information; and a system of monopolies, banks and governments trying to keep things private, scarce and commercial. Everything comes down to the struggle between the network and the hierarchy: between old forms of society moulded around capitalism and new forms of society that prefigure what comes next."

That seems to be a succinct stating of the upcoming techology-driven struggle. I'm not sure what I'm trying to initiate hear by way of discussion, but I am curious if others have readings about what the transition might be like and what the outcome on the other side would be. 

Another quote from the article that I hope is correct and leaves me with a bit of optimism if it is is the following: 

It is the elites – cut off in their dark-limo world – whose project looks as forlorn as that of the millennial sects of the 19th century. The democracy of riot squads, corrupt politicians, magnate-controlled newspapers and the surveillance state looks as phoney and fragile as East Germany did 30 years ago.

[Scott Hotes]

On Tue, Jul 21, 2015 at 12:27 AM, Vince Koloski <vkst...@gmail.com> wrote:

At the picnic, we had a bit of discussion about this topic. What is going to happen to society when the above mentioned take over vast areas of human endeavor and rewrite the social order and what the road will be like to get to that future. I think Craig held the flag for the end result of abundance both of the physical necessities of life and of time to live it. The opposite view might be stated that while that end result is achievable, will government and the oligarchs/monopolists allow it to happen. Or at least allow it to happen without some sort of violent social disruption. I came across an interesting article in The Guardian this weekend:  http://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/jul/17/postcapitalism-end-of-capitalism-begun?CMP=ema_565  which discusses some of these issues. The author has a book entitled "Postcapitalism" coming out at the end of the month. One of the more interesting bits was his description of a piece written by Marx around 1860 entitled "The Fragment on Machines" (http://thenewobjectivity.com/pdf/marx.pdf - although if you think the Guardian article is long, slogging through the original Marx seems endless) which, he states, anticipates the information economy of today - who knew? 

Fascinating topic!

I certainly can't predict how things will evolve if and when capitalism starts to fade, but I would argue that this article contains a lot of wishful thinking.  Take for example:

"The coming wave of automation, currently stalled because our social infrastructure cannot bear the consequences, will hugely diminish the amount of work needed – not just to subsist but to provide a decent life for all." 

No doubt we all want this to be true, but is there any evidence behind this statement?  Bill Gates, someone is a position to know, foretold us that the rise of PC's and computers in the workplace would take us to a paperless society.  I think we're still all waiting on that.  The hard truth is that the effects of technology are often difficult or impossible to predict.

The author goes on to say that the primary reason that outmoded economic models do not hold is that they are based on scarcity and "information is abundant".  I honestly find this statement to be ridiculous.  For one thing, much of our economy continues to be, and will continue to be for a long time (after which I don't think anyone is in a position to predict) driven by resources that are "scarce", think clean water and air if you want to stay away from carbon-based fuels.  Second, I have a hard time wrapping my head around the idea that information is "abundant".  In what sense?  There are some supporting trends, like the fact that science publications more and more are moving away from journals that require expensive subscriptions, or that many university courses are now online, but can we really conclude from this that this will us to some kind of egalitarian utopia where we all have access to the same high quality information?  As of yet at least, I'm not seeing that.  And of course "information" is much different than "knowledge".  Online access to MIT courses or textbooks may prove to be a small part of the equation (albeit an important one.)

But really, the part that got to me was the authors exemplifying case of the "new economy" (that successful, utopian model that serves as a goal taking us beyond the chains of capitalism), his example:  Greece!!?  Huh?  Greece is broke.  We have no idea what comes next, but it's quite possible that if they truly choose to abandon capitalism, separate from the EU, and move to some undefined future model, they may very well start to look much more like the third world.  The best and the brightest would not stay.  What kind of a utopia is this?

I also object to the notion that because bits can be copied freely (OK, or nearly free, or approaching free) that thus the price of information will approach zero.  Maybe.  But "information" has to be produced somewhere.  Somewhere or something has to take in the raw data and make something interesting out of it.  That costs money.  Somewhere in the supply chain, those costs must be covered, or the quality (an inherent aspect related to cost) will decline.  Clearly media is struggling with this now, but we can't really say now where it will land, and at this point you certainly can't conclude some kind of egalitarian happy place.

In any case, entertaining to read, lot's to think about.

Scott

[Jack Saunders]

On postcapitalist "abundance" -- Because our robots have become so devilishly effective, the Great Cloud announces a universal dividend -- and sound as gold, since it truly is a dividend reflecting Xtreme productivity gains.  So tomorrow, the delivery bots will place in the hands of every adult American 10 gold ingots valued at $10,000.  These are distributed with perfect and equal fidelity.

You tell me what the distribution scattergram looks like by end of year.

Some people are better situated to flood the zone with a crack sales force than others.  Well over half would be dazed and confused; their aggregate share would be gone in a week...a bunch of sheep playing the wolf's game.

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