About Scientists Without Borders

[Ron Krate]

Denis, Colleagues, and Friends of IPP

You  may wish to join our ally's organization ( www.scientistswithoutborders.org ).

They are the offspring of the New York Academy of Sciences.

Individual scientists and engineers ( and several other non-scientific professionals they designate on their site - e.g. IT, ICT, graphic artists, HR, writers, social scientists,CPAs, etc), projects and orgs value this powerful search-engine site for collaboration, contacts,projects, etc.

Kind regards,
Ron Krate, Ph.D.
Founding Head
International Professors Project
www.internationalprofs.org

On Wed, Jul 21, 2010 at 12:04 PM, <senescence-of-civ...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

  Today's Topic Summary

Group: http://groups.google.com/group/senescence-of-civilization/topics

• The Great Con [1 Update]
• Fw: [roeoz] more doom.... [1 Update]
• Fw: [roeoz] more Kunstler [1 Update]

 Topic: The Great Con

Denis Frith <denis...@yahoo.com.au> Jul 21 03:46AM -0700 ^

 
There is a vast amount of material by knowledgeable people about what modern society has done to its life support system and the unintended consequences. These discussions often focus on the role of finances and the decisions made by the powerful in business and governance. They tend to concentrate on the likelihood of the resumption of economic growth. This vast array of seemingly authoritative views are enough to daunt those who wish to gain basic understanding without having to engage in a time consuming learning process for doubtful benefits. Young, concerned people with an inquiring mind may attempt to garner
understanding from these often
lengthy diatribes. But
older people will be less inclined to go to the trouble of thinking through the presented arguments simply
to gain understanding of
a situation they
cannot hope to
influence.
 
However, there is
really quite a simple
basis to the operation of the real economy. This is explained here. The actual operation, especially in recent times, has numerous variations but the basic principle still applies, particularly in the developed economies.
 
Businesses are organizations that have the objective of making a profit by producing goods or providing services that the community are willing to buy. Governments are organizations that employ workers to provide the community with infrastructure and services. Banks and investors provide capital for the money flow needed by the organizations in their operations. The banks charge interest and the investors expect dividends as their share of the success of businesses. The workers use their skill and know how to produce the goods or provide the services that the businesses sell and governments provide. The wage or salary they receive is their share of the value of the goods or services provided to the consumer. Thus three groups
gain from the process of meeting the
demands of the population at large for goods and services that are deemed to be useful. The goods invariably end up as waste when their usefulness is over, even
when they are part of long lasting infrastructure.
That is the basic structure of the economy as normally envisaged. The businesses can grow using the profit to add to their capital. The banks and investors become wealthier. The workers can often save some of their income to add to their wealth if they are frugal. That is, all three groups can, as a matter of principle, become wealthier by contributing to the provision of goods and services the community finds useful. That is the return on investment of the three types of input, skill, organization and money flow. This is the process that has produced modern civilization. Its success has varied appreciably for a variety of reasons. The developed countries have led the way and the developing countries are now catching up and even bypassing the aging developed countries.
 
This view of the operation of the economy is a gigantic con. It is a common belief by even the most knowledgeable economists across the globe. But it is based on a false premise so
is unsustainable. That is the stark reality that society is going to have to face. There is one crucial factor missing from that picture of the basis of the economy. The goods are manufactured out of mostly irreplaceable natural resources using energy also obtained by using natural
resources, fossil fuels being the main source. The machinery was built by using natural resources. This input to the production process is necessary for the outcome of what society uses and the structure of civilization. It is the essential fourth component in the process. The economy, however, does not account for its use. The common view is that we should make use of what is available from nature, especially those materials we extract from underground. They have no impact on how the biosphere operates used to be the common view. We know better now as emissions from the fossil fuels cause rapid climate change. This irrevocable ravaging of the environment, together with numerous others, represent the ecological cost of the production process. That cost is not taken into account. The financial wealth acquired by the three groups is largely at the price of destruction of natural wealth although human skill and know how makes a major contribution to the
creation of financial
wealth.
 
That
is what has happened. It has created or exacerbated nine
problems.
There is the fallacious global belief in the possibility of continuing economic growth
It has enabled industrial food production, transportation and storage by using fossil fuels and other components of natural capital that are running out
It has contributed to the explosive growth in the population of human beings while fostering the rapid extinction of many other speciesThere is increasing competition amongst countries, communities and peoples for what remains of many natural resources including oil, water and fertile soil.There is increasing alienation between people across the globe because some have been so successful in ravishing the life support system that many feel that they have been robbed and are striving for their perceived rights.Many of the three groups have financial wealth that gives them the capability to buy goods and services without regard to the
ecological cost or what remains of the natural wealth. The fact that it is fiat money created out of thin air does not affect the ability of the owners to live lavish life styles - for now.
People, especially in the developed communities, have the belief, fostered by governments and business, that continuing economic growth is sustainable. Many people, organizations and countries are going into debt because they expect to be able to pay it off in the future.
People also have faith in the ability of technology to continue to ease problems in the operation of civilization even though technology caused most of the problems. They do not understand that natural forces always determine what is possible. Technology can only realize some of that potential.
A vast infrastructure of civilization has been built, especially in the cities, that entails a commitment to use some of the
declining supply of natural resources for operation and maintenance.
What then is the future for wealth generation of the groups as ecological forces
exert more control, so inhibiting the production and maintenance processes? The response is likely to depend on the nature of future developments in the operation of civilization.  There may be traumas or there may be  a gradual decline in what natural capital is
available. The response is likely to be a combination of a number of factors with the combination varying appreciably according to the circumstances in the region. The factors include:
a reduction in the returns for all three groups but varying across groups according to circumstances and location. Many of those with debt will default with across the board deflation consequences. Wealth creation will, at best, moderate in the most adaptable communities but wealth destruction will become the dominant paradigm
adapting mentally and physically to the transition to a contracting economyincreasing understanding amongst the educated that the operation and maintenance of industrialized civilization is entering into its senescencean increasing trend to provide useful services rather than the production of stuff out of natural resources
appreciable restructuring leading to re-education and re-employment
a reduction in the demand for goods as consumers have to become more frugal
pressure on workers to make a bigger
personnel contribution as the machinery winds down due to lack of resources, including fuel, and declining maintenance
degradation of the infrastructure of civilization due to the decreasing availability of many natural resources, including those supplying concentrated energythe emergence of a smart middle class advocating sound measures to adapt to the powering downa resurgence of basic skills
including growing and handling of foodre-localization and a return to the values of communitiesa decline in the value of money which, unfortunately, will hit the poorest hardest but many in the middle class will not take kindly to the loss of their hoped for pleasant retirement
the loss of faith in the ability of the human species to control what happensIt is to be hoped that society at large will respond to the challenge of deciding sound measures to employ in the powering down of the operation of industrial civilization.
 
Denis Frith


 

 Topic: Fw: [roeoz] more doom....

Denis Frith <denis...@yahoo.com.au> Jul 20 06:00PM -0700 ^

 
This is a dire possibility. Irreversible rapid climate change, however, is already under way. It is ironic that humans have managed to use oil, and other fossil fuels, in the construction of the vast infrastructure of industrial civilization while unintendingly precipitating this climate change. So we now have a civilization dependent on using fossil fuels for its operation and maintenance while we have a need to cut back on using these fuels in an attempt to reduce the future consequences of climate change. This dilemma is not receiving the attention that is warranted as focus is on the failing economy.
 
Denis Frith
 
 
--- On Wed, 21/7/10, Michel Stasse <mst...@yahoo.com> wrote:
 
From: Michel Stasse <mst...@yahoo.com>
Subject: [roeoz] more doom....
To: ro...@yahoogroups.com, grassroo...@yahoogroups.com
Received: Wednesday, 21 July, 2010, 5:58 AM
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 





Doomsday: How BP Gulf disaster may have triggered a
'world-killing' event






 


 


Ominous reports are leaking past the BP Gulf salvage
operation news blackout that the disaster unfolding in the Gulf of
Mexico may be about to reach biblical proportions.
http://www.helium. com/items/ 1882339-doomsday -how-bp-gulf- disaster- may-have- triggered- a-world-killing- event
 
251 million
years ago a mammoth undersea methane bubble caused massive explosions,
poisoned the atmosphere and destroyed more than 96 percent of all life
on Earth. [1] Experts agree that what is known as the Permian extinction
event was the greatest mass extinction event in the history of the
world. [2]
55 million years later another methane bubble
ruptured causing more mass extinctions during the Late Paleocene Thermal
Maximum (LPTM).
 
The
LPTM lasted 100,000 years. [3]
 
Those subterranean seas of methane
virtually reshaped the planet when they explosively blew from deep
beneath the waters of what is today called the Gulf of Mexico.
 
Now,
worried scientists are increasingly concerned the same series of
catastrophic events that led to worldwide death back then may be
happening again-and no known technology can stop it.
 
The bottom
line: BP’s Deepwater Horizon drilling operation may have triggered an
irreversible, cascading geological Apocalypse that will culminate with
the first mass extinction of life on Earth in many millions of years.
 
The
oil giant drilled down miles into a geologically unstable region and
may have set the stage for the eventual premature release of a methane
mega-bubble.
 
Ryskin’s methane extinction theory
 
Northwestern University's Gregory Ryskin, a
bio-chemical engineer, has a theory: The oceans periodically produce
massive eruptions of explosive methane gas. He has documented the
scientific evidence that such an event was directly responsible for the
mass extinctions that occurred 55 million years ago. [4]
 
Many
geologists concur: "The consequences of a methane-driven oceanic
eruption for marine and terrestrial life are likely to be catastrophic.
Figuratively speaking, the erupting region "boils over," ejecting a
large amount of methane and other gases (e.g., CO2, H2S) into the
atmosphere, and flooding large areas of land. Whereas pure methane is
lighter than air, methane loaded with water droplets is much heavier,
and thus spreads over the land, mixing with air in the process (and
losing water as rain). The air-methane mixture is explosive at methane
concentrations between 5% and 15%; as such mixtures form in different
locations near the ground and are ignited by lightning, explosions and
conflagrations destroy most of the terrestrial life, and also produce
great amounts of smoke and of carbon dioxide..." [5]
 
The warning
signs of an impending planetary catastrophe—of such great magnitude that
the human mind has difficulty grasping it-would be the appearance of
large fissures or rifts splitting open the ocean floor, a rise in the
elevation of the seabed, and the massive venting of methane and other
gases into the surrounding water.
 
Such occurrences can lead to
the rupture of the methane bubble containment—it can then permit the
methane to breach the subterranean depths and undergo an explosive
decompression as it catapults into the Gulf waters.  [6]
 
All
three warning signs are documented to be occurring in the Gulf.
 
Ground
zero: The Gulf Coast
 
The people and property located on the
greater expanse of the Gulf Coast are sitting at Ground Zero. They will
be the first exposed to poisonous, cancer causing chemical gases. They
will be the ones that initially experience the full fury of a methane
bubble exploding from the ruptured seabed.
 
The media has been
kept away from the emergency salvage measures being taken to forestall
the biggest catastrophe in human history. The federal government has
warned them away from the epicenter of operations with the threat of a
$40,000 fine for each infraction and the possibility of felony arrests.
 
Why
is the press being kept away? Word is that the disaster is escalating.
 
Cracks
and bulges
 
Methane is now streaming through the porous, rocky
seabed at an accelerated rate and gushing from the borehole of the first
relief well. The EPA is on record that Rig #1 is releasing methane,
benzene, hydrogen sulfide and other toxic gases. Workers there now wear
advanced protection including state-of-the- art, military-issued gas
masks.
 
Reports, filtering through from oceanologists and salvage
workers in the region, state that the upper level strata of the ocean
floor is succumbing to greater and greater pressure. That pressure is
causing a huge expanse of the seabed-estimated by some as spreading over
thousands of square miles surrounding the BP wellhead-to bulge. Some
claim the seabed in the region has risen an astounding 30 feet.
 
The
fractured BP wellhead, site of the former Deepwater Horizon, has become
the epicenter of frenetic attempts to quell the monstrous flow of
methane.
 
The subterranean methane is pressurized at 100,000
pounds psi. According to Matt Simmons, an oil industry expert,
the methane pressure at the wellhead has now skyrocketed to a
terrifying 40,000 pounds psi.
 
Another well-respected expert, Dr. John Kessler of Texas A&M
University has calculated that the ruptured well is spewing 60 percent
oil and 40 percent methane. The normal methane amount that escapes from a
compromised well is about 5 percent.
 
More evidence? A huge gash
on the ocean floor—like a ragged wound hundreds of feet long—has been
reported by the NOAA research ship,
Thomas Jefferson. Before the curtain of the government enforced news
blackout again descended abruptly, scientists aboard the ship voiced
their concerns that the widening rift may go down miles into the earth.
 
That
gash too is hemorrhaging oil and methane. It’s 10 miles away from the
BP epicenter. Other, new fissures, have been spotted as far as 30 miles
distant.
 
Measurements of the multiple oil plumes now appearing
miles from the wellhead indicate that as much as a total  of 124,000
barrels of oil are erupting into the Gulf waters daily-that’s about
5,208,000 gallons of oil per day.
 
Most disturbing of all:
Methane levels in the water are now calculated as being almost one
million times higher than normal. [7]
 
Mass death on the water
 
If
the methane bubble—a bubble that could be as big as 20 miles
wide—erupts with titanic force from the seabed into the Gulf, every
ship, drilling rig and structure within the region of the bubble will
immediately sink. All the workers, engineers, Coast
Guard personnel and marine biologists participating in the salvage
operation will die instantly.
 
Next, the ocean bottom will
collapse, instantaneously displacing up to a trillion cubic feet of
water or more and creating a towering supersonic tsunami annihilating
everything along the coast and well inland. Like a thermonuclear blast, a
high pressure atmospheric wave could precede the tidal wave flattening
everything in its path before the water arrives.
 
When the
roaring tsunami does arrive it will scrub away all that is left.
 
A
chemical cocktail of poisons
 
Some environmentalist experts are
calling what’s pouring into the land, sea and air from the seabed breach
’a chemical cocktail of poisons.’
 
Areas of dead zones devoid of
oxygen are driving species of fish into foreign waters, killing
plankton and other tiny sea life that are the foundation for the entire food chain, and polluting the air with
cancer-causing chemicals and poisonous rainfalls.
 
A report from
one observer in South Carolina documents oily residue left behind
after a recent thunderstorm. And before the news blackout fully
descended the EPA released data that benzene levels in New Orleans had
rocketed to 3,000 parts per billion.
 
Benzene is extremely toxic
and even short term exposure can cause agonizing death from cancerous
lesions years later.
 
The people of Louisiana have been exposed
for more than two months—and the benzene levels may be much higher now.
The EPA measurement was taken in early May. [8]
 
Doomsday
 
While
some say it can’t happen because the bulk of the methane is frozen into
crystalline form, others point out that the underground methane sea is
gradually melting from the nearby surging oil that’s estimated to be as
hot as 500 degrees Fahrenheit.
 
Most experts in the know, however,
agree that if the world-changing event does occur it will happen
suddenly and within the next 6 months.
 
So, if events go against 
Mankind and the bubble bursts in the coming months, Gregory Ryskin may
become one of the most famous people in the world. Of course, he won't
have long to enjoy his new found fame because very shortly after the
methane eruption civilization will collapse.
 
Perhaps if humanity
is very, very lucky, some may find a way to avoid the mass extinction
that follows and carry on the human race.
 
Perhaps.
…………
 
Sources
 
[1]
The Permian extinction
event, when 96% of all marine species became extinct 251 million
years ago.
 
[2] “The Day The Earth Nearly
Died,” BBC Horizon, 2002
 
[3] Report about the Late
Paleocene Thermal Maximum (LPTM), which occurred around 55 million
years ago and lasted about 100,000 years. Large undersea methane caused
explosions and mass extinctions.
 
[4] Ryskin Theory
Huge
combustible clouds produced by methane gas trapped under the seas and
explosively released could have killed off the majority of marine life,
land animals, and plants at the end of the Permian era—long before the
dinosaurs arrived.
 
[5] James P. Kennett, Kevin G. Cannariato,
Ingrid L. Hendy, Richard J. Behl (2000), "Carbon Isotopic Evidence
for Methane Hydrate Instability During Quaternary Interstadials,"
Science 288.
 
[6] “An awesome mix of fire
and water may lie behind mass extinctions”
 
[7] “Methane in Gulf
'astonishingly high'-US scientist”
 
[8] Report: “Air Quality - Oil Spill” TV 4WWL
video
 
Links
 
“BP engineer called doomed
rig a 'nightmare well’”
 
History Channel Mega
Disasters - Methane Explosion
 
“BP Official Admits to
Damage Beneath the Sea Floor"
 
I would have more confidence in optimism if the optimists lived wisely!
 
A pessimist is a well informed optimist!
 
http://damnthematri x.wordpress. com/
 
http://www.chrismar tenson.com/ crashcourse
 
 

 


 

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 Topic: Fw: [roeoz] more Kunstler

Denis Frith <denis...@yahoo.com.au> Jul 20 05:41PM -0700 ^

 
No doubt there will be plenty of discussion about whether Simmonds is right. Not that the discussion will help to stop natural forces! There is virtually no possibility that humans will be able to manage to implement any action that can counter these massive natural forces. It would be like trying to stop those Icelandic volcanoes from erupting.
 
It is understandable that the Deepwater Horizon oil flow has attracted so much attention. It is ironic, however, that the greatest flow of oil and its consequences is not yet widely regarded as an absolute disaster. This is because it has been deemed useful for over a century to extract oil to provide energy to drive the build up and operation of industrial civilization. This release of a powerful force from its crustal store, it is now being realized, has had the unintended consequence of initiating rapid climate change. The traumatic event that Simmonds says is possible may not eventuate. Rapid, irreversible climate change, however, is already under way. The best that can be done is to implement measures to adapt to the disruptive effects globally.
 
Denis Frith
 
 
--- On Wed, 21/7/10, Michel Stasse <mst...@yahoo.com> wrote:
 
From: Michel Stasse <mst...@yahoo.com>
Subject: [roeoz] more Kunstler
To: ro...@yahoogroups.com
Received: Wednesday, 21 July, 2010, 5:34 AM
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 




What If He's Right?


 
By James Howard Kunstler
on
July 19, 2010
8:18 AM
 

 



 


       Just when
America was celebrating the provisional end of BP's Macondo oil blowout,
and getting back to important issues like Kim Kardashian's body-suit
collection, along comes Matthew Simmons with a rather strange and
alarming outcry on doings in the Gulf of Mexico that contradicts the
mood of renewed festivity, as well as just about every shred of
reportage from any media outlet, mainstream or otherwise.    
Matt Simmons Houston-based company has been the leading investment bank
to the US oil industry for a long time, financing exploration and
drilling in places like the Gulf of Mexico. Simmons, 68, recently
retired from day-to-day management of the company. For much of the
decade he has been what may be described as a peak oil activist. His
2005 book, Twilight in the Desert, warned the public that Saudi
Arabia's oil production had reached its limits and, more generally, that
an oil-dependent world was entering a zone of serious trouble over its
primary resource. He took this aggressive stance despite risking the ire
of the people he did business with.         Matt Simmons is a
sober individual and a very nice man (I've met him twice over the
years), a button-downed corporate executive who's been around the oil
business for forty years. His knowledge is deep and comprehensive.  From
the beginning of the BP Macondo blowout incident in April, he's taken
the far out position that the well-bore is fatally compromised and that
BP has been consistently lying about their operations to stop the flow
of oil. Perhaps most radically, Simmons claims that an oil "gusher" is
pouring into the Gulf some distance from the drilling site itself.  
    Last week, Simmons came on Dylan Ratigan's MSNBC financial show,
but he did a longer interview over at the King World News website.
(click here for Eric
King's interview with Simmons). Simmons's current warning about the
situation focuses on the gigantic "lake" of crude oil that is pooling
under great pressure 4000 to 5000 feet down in the "basement" of the
Gulf's waters.  More particularly, he is concerned that a tropical storm
will bring this oil up - as tropical storms and hurricanes usually do
with deeper cold water - and with it clouds of methane gas that will
move toward the Gulf shore and kill a lot of people. (I really don't
know the science on this and welcome any reader to correct me, but I
suppose that the oil "lake" deep under the Gulf waters contains a lot of
methane gas dissolved at pressure, and that as the oil rises toward the
ocean's surface, and lower pressures, the gas will bubble out of
solution.)       Simmons makes two additional points that are
pretty radical: he says that several states along the Gulf ought to
begin systematic evacuations in counties along the shore now. From his
experience in Houston with Hurricane Rita (2005), he says a last-minute
evacuation is bound to be a disaster -- the highways jammed hopelessly,
drivers ran out of gas, and then the gas stations ran out of gas. Based
on where the nation's collective state-of-mind is these days, I can't
imagine that any Gulf state governor or mayor will heed this warning and
begin preparing an evacuation now. (The practical problems are obvious
for householders but what if it really is a matter of life and death?)  
     Secondly, Simmons maintains - as he has from near the beginning of
the blowout - that the US military should take over operations from BP
and ought to set off a "small" nuclear device down in the well-bore to
fuse the rock into glass and seal the site permanently. Simmons says,
based on his experience growing up in Utah near the government's
underground nuclear testing sites in neighboring Nevada, where scores of
very large atomic bombs were set off for years with no measurable
consequences above ground, that a small nuclear explosion down in the
Macondo well is unlikely to have any effect above the undersea rock
surface. I have no idea, personally if this is true.     Matt
Simmons is taking a position so "out there" that even the radical peak
oil website TheOilDrum.com
won't comment on his remarks (at least not as of early Monday morning
July 19). I don't know how to evaluate Simmons's contentions myself,
except to say that I don't believe Simmons is a nut, or that he's lost
his marbles. We also must suppose that someone in his position is able
to talk with an awful lot of the best people in the oil industry.
 Simmons has put his reputation on the line. A lot of bystanders and
commentators are treating him as a fool.  Simmons himself is painfully
aware of his lonely stance and seems, in his public appearances, to be a
very regretful messenger.       In the past twenty-four
hours, BP has reported some possible leaks coming out of the seabed some
distance from the well-bore. Nobody has been able to confirm yet
exactly what is happening down there.  One other thing Simmons said is
that BP should be barred from the media airwaves since, he says, they
have lied consistently in order to cover up their criminal negligence
and culpability. The company itself cannot be saved because the claims
against it are much greater than the value of its assets - but the
people running the company could be sent to jail, so the incentive to
keep lying remains high.       Jesse at the Jesse's Café Américain
website makes an excellent point that if Matt Simmons is correct, and
it turns out that the US government has been played by BP, then
remaining public trust in the competence and legitimacy of government
could evaporate. This is not a happy thing to contemplate at a time when
the state of the nation and its economy are so fragile. What follows
could make the current political situation seem like little more than,
well, than a tea party, compared to the politics-to- come.    
   Readers here at Clusterfuck Nation are probably well aware of my
past declarations of being allergic to conspiracy theories and crazy
ideas generally. I'm not really equipped to evaluate Matt Simmons's
warnings about the exact nature of the Macondo blowout and what might
happen in the months ahead. But I am confident, having met the guy and
corresponded with him and read his books, that he is a straight shooter.
I'm sure that he is sincere in proclaiming his extreme discomfort with
the position he's taken.  Listen and decide for yourselves. (Simmons
interview with Eric King)
 
I would have more confidence in optimism if the optimists lived wisely!
 
A pessimist is a well informed optimist!
 
http://damnthematri x.wordpress. com/
 
http://www.chrismar tenson.com/ crashcourse
 
 

 


 

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