Fw: [malaria] Ebola niche

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IPHF Communication Team

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Sep 10, 2014, 10:58:18 AM9/10/14

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On Wednesday, September 10, 2014 3:30 PM, William Brieger via Knowledge Gateway <mal...@my.ibpinitiative.org> wrote:

Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa | eLife



		Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa \| eLife eLife - Open access to the most promising advances in science

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Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04395Published September 8, 2014 Cite as eLife 2014;10.7554/eLife.04395 Download PDF

Abstract

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976-2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past.

William Brieger MPH, CHES, DrPH (Atunluse of Idere, Otun Ba'asegun of Igbo-Ora)
malaria updates at: https://twitter.com/#!/bbbrieger and http://malariamatters.org/ and http://knowledge-gateway.org/malaria

Senior Malaria Specialist, JHPIEGO: http://www.jhpiego.org/en/content/malaria-prevention-and-treatment

Professor, Health Systems Program, Department of International Health
The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
http://faculty.jhsph.edu/Default.cfm?faculty_id=90; <bbri...@jhsph.edu>
https://www.coursera.org/course/communitychange; https://www.coursera.org/course/commhealthworkers

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