Encountering Peace: Despite it all, economic peace
Gershon Baskin
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Encountering Peace: Despite it all, economic peace
By GERSHON BASKIN
14/11/2011
Economic peace may be the only answer for the present time.
When Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu took over the Israeli government at
the end of March 2009, he spoke about his economic peace plan. In November
2009, Netanyahu said, “Economic development does not solve problems, it
mitigates them and makes them more accessible for solution, and creates a
stronger political base.”
He further said he would not hand over the Palestinians territories before
strengthening the West Bank economy, fearing that radical Islamists backed
by archenemy Iran would seize power there.
Here we are two years later. Palestinians have received more than passing
grades from the World Bank and the IMF in their state and institutional
building efforts.
Anyone who visits the West Bank immediately takes notice of the rapid
economic development that has taken place. Despite the Palestinian rejection
of Netanyahu’s economic peace plans, so far the basic theory has worked.
Economic growth has created a kind of deterrence against a return to
violence. People remember all too well the horrific, tragic losses of the
second intifada years, the loss of life and the destruction of property.
Palestinians do not want to return to the chaos of the aftermath of the
collapse of the Palestinian Authority and the complete reoccupation by
Israel of all Palestinian cities. There has been progress on the ground and
even if there is no political progress towards a negotiated peace settlement
or an end to the occupation, for the time being Palestinians do not want to
lose what has been achieved.
Netanyahu may be able to feel that his economic peace plan is widely
responsible for the current stability, but it would be very wrong for him
not to admit that the primary success belongs to the Palestinian leadership
and the Palestinian people. The decision of Palestinian Authority President
Mahmoud Abbas to implement Palestine’s road map obligation to dismantle the
infrastructure of terrorism, to re-establish law and order, to unite the
Palestinian security forces and to place them under the rule of the
political echelon are the main elements that have enabled economic growth
over the past years.
PA Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad and his government have demonstrated success
in developing the institutions of statehood, including the emphasis that has
been placed on the need for people servicing public government institutions.
The international community has played its positive role as well by
providing the necessary funding to enable the implementation of these plans.
Israel removed checkpoints and made movement somewhat easier, but all
international reports on the Palestinian economy still say that the primary
obstacle to greater economic growth in Palestine are Israeli limitations on
movement and control of the economy.
SO WHAT now? There are no negotiations for peace and there seems to be no
real plan to get the parties back to the table. The international financial
crash is having a direct impact on the Palestinian Authority as well. The US
punishment of Palestine because of its decision to go to the United Nations
is also a real blow to the state building process, and if Israel continues
to withhold Palestinian tax revenues, this will be a fatal knockout to the
Palestinian government and the economy.
Soon we will see massive layoffs, closings of businesses, new hotels and
restaurants shutting down. Palestinian software ventures, new start-ups,
factories all over the West Bank will close their doors. The Palestinian
Authority will not be able to pay its salaries. The PA is the largest
employer in the West Bank. How long will it take under this scenario before
there is a return to violence?
Following the release of Gilad Schalit from Gaza, the policy of the Israeli
government may be to also implement economic peace there was well. The
office of the Coordinator of Government Affairs in the territories (COGAT)
in the Ministry of Defense announced this week that quantities of
agricultural produce from Gaza, mainly strawberries and flowers, exported to
Europe will more than double this year, from 399 tons of strawberries this
year to 1,000 tons expected in 2012. In 2011, the PA exported 10 million
carnations and six tons of peppers; next year, those numbers will hit 20
million carnations and 150 tons of peppers. COGAT has also announced that it
will allow furniture to be exported from Gaza.
Even with Hamas in power in Gaza, apparently someone is beginning to
understand that it is better for our neighbors to be gainfully employed than
hungry, frustrated and angry.
UN officials have also noted that Israel is now allowing several important
construction projects to take place, including the building of new schools.
This is a very good step in the right direction. The Hamas government in
Gaza has profited from Israel’s economic siege. The underground tunnel
economy has been extremely profitable for them and they have systematized
the means of collecting high revenues from this. Opening Gaza’s economy once
again is the right thing to do.
So if there is no political process taking place that will lead us back to
negotiations and perhaps to peace, and if Israel successfully blocked
Palestine’s attempt to gain international recognition of statehood without
negotiations, perhaps the best plan to implement now is a continuation and
even an enhancement of Netanyahu’s economic peace.
It is no replacement for political peace.
Palestine must achieve statehood and Israel must end its control over the
Palestinian people, but political constellations locally and internationally
do not seem to enable political progress at this time. The main policy
effort must be to prevent a return to violence.
The next step of this plan must be to release control over territories in
the West Bank that are located in Area C, lands under full Israel control.
Area C comprises 62 percent of the West Bank. With Israeli encouragement,
large infrastructure development projects could be launched in the
development of a transportation corridor, energy – including solar and wind
projects, and even the construction of at least one new city, which could be
used to absorb Palestinian refugees from places like Lebanon in the future.
At a time when we have no political horizon and no statesman-like leadership
that can propel us into the future when peace agreements will be possible,
we must avoid political collapse and economic doom that will lead to
violence. Economic peace may be the only answer for the present time.
The writer is the Co-CEO of IPCRI, the Israel Palestine Center for Research
and Information and a radio host on All for Peace Radio.
Gershon Baskin, Ph.D. Co-CEO, IPCRI
Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information
P.O. Box 9321, Jerusalem 91092
Tel: +972-2-676-9460 Fax: +972-2-676-8011
Cellphone: +972-(0)52-238-1715
<mailto:ger...@ipcri.org> ger...@ipcri.org
<http://www.ipcri.org/> http://www.ipcri.org
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