Encountering Peace: Unintended consequences (Gershon Baskin, Jerusalem Post)

[Gershon Baskin]

<http://www.jpost.com/> jpost

Print Edition

Photo by: REUTERS/Eric Thayer

Encountering Peace: Unintended consequences

By GERSHON BASKIN
01/11/2011

Palestinian logic to go to the UN was based on their sound assessment that
no negotiated agreement could be reached with the current Israeli
government.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and the entire PLO leadership
decided to take the Palestinian issue back to the United Nations. This was
not an easy or a hasty decision. It was taken with a great deal of
deliberation and after carefully weighing all of the possible consequences.

The Palestinian logic was soundly based on their assessment that there was
no possibility of reaching a negotiated agreement with the current
government of Israel. Every day, Israeli settlement building progressed,
taking away more land from what they believe is part of the future
Palestinian state. More than 18 years of failed peace processes convinced
them that they need to create a “game changer” so that they could preserve
the chances for creating a real Palestinian state in the future.

The weight of the parties is extremely asymmetrical – one side being a fully
developed, recognized state with a giant economy, one of the strongest
militaries in the world and possessing full control over all of the
territories which Palestinians believe should become their sovereign state.
In Palestinian eyes, the only power they have is the moral claim against the
occupation of their land and the denial of their recognized rights for self
determination, and the support that they have and could potentially increase
in the international community.

Palestinians knew in advance that the United States and Israel would use
their considerable power and influence to try to persuade the Palestinians
not to go to the United Nations. They knew that the US might use its veto in
the Security Council, and that Israel and the US would try to prevent a
majority of nine votes in the Council in support of their statehood bid.
They knew that the US Congress might freeze US financial aid to the
Palestinian state-building effort.

Against all these odds the Palestinian leadership, with the support of a
large majority of the Palestinian people, charged forward to the United
Nations. President Abbas said you cannot buy Palestinian rights and honor
for money, and that threats would not dissuade them from trying to achieve
their rights and establish their state.

EVEN IF Israel is angry with Abbas for going to the UN, his position is
consistent with Palestinian national interests. It is likely that if the
situation was reversed, Israel would have done the same thing.

The US, with support of the Israeli government, is using a diplomatic
“stick” against the Palestinian Authority. US Congresswoman Ileana
Ros-Lehtinen, who chairs the House Committee on Foreign Relations, is using
her prerogative to put a hold on more than $200 million already approved to
be allocated to the Palestinians. Most of that money has already been
authorized and contracted out through the auspices of the USAID mission in
Tel Aviv responsible for supporting Palestinian state-building and economic
development in the West Bank and Gaza.

The immediate impact of this is the firing of many young Palestinian
academics working for various US contractors and for Palestinian
nongovernmental institutions. The USAID mission is also in the process of
immediately scaling down, and soon many of its staff are likely to receive
notices that their employment is suspended or canceled.

A senior official from one of the largest American Jewish organizations told
me that the government of Israel and friends of Israel in Congress want to
send a strong message to Abbas. He told me that on a policy level they make
a clear differentiation between the state-building activities of Prime
Minister Salaam Fayyad and the political decisions of Abbas. I am not so
sure that there is such a difference here, but if this is their intention,
they have chosen the wrong “stick” to hit the Palestinians with.

The potential damage to the Palestinian side is far too great to risk merely
to send a message. Firing hundreds of young, bright and ambitious
Palestinian academics is a direct blow to the positive state-building
efforts.

Furthermore, it can be assumed that at some point in the not too distant
future the funds will be unfrozen, however by that time the damage will have
been done. US contractors will receive their severance pay and compensation
for losses (Palestinians will not). The direct costs of layoffs and sending
people home, including those from the USAID mission in Tel Aviv, will draw a
huge amount of funds from the programs’ running costs. If and when the
programs are reinstated, there will be no money left the in the project
budgets to implement their original aims.

These projects include infrastructure development such as building schools,
water and sewage projects, building roads, supporting the legal system for
training judges, and democracy and government capacity training programs.

The Palestinian economy is already in a fragile state. Losing over $200
million in one blow, with the extra burden of increased unemployment of
young academics, could cause considerable social unrest.

There is an American proposal that US aid to the Palestinian security
services should not be cut while the other economic support funds are. This
would be a disaster; it would make the Palestinian security services look
entirely like an arm of the Israeli occupation, delegitimizing their very
existence.

Here is where the law of unintended consequences comes most into play.

The US legislator holding back the funds to the Palestinian Authority is
playing with fire that could easily erupt inside of Israel. There is no
desire in the West Bank for a deterioration of the situation into another
round of violence. President Abbas remains fully committed to a non-violent
approach to achieving statehood. No, he does not do what Israel would like
him to do, but he is acting as the Palestinian president in Palestine’s best
interests, as he and his colleagues understand it. US and Israeli punishment
of Abbas for not “behaving” is dangerous and foolish.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who scored such high points for making
the right decision in bringing Gilad Schalit home, is falling into the pit
of arrogance, which could have very dangerous and negative repercussions for
Israel. I often told Hamas leaders the same thing that I am now saying to
Prime Minister Netanyahu – when you play with fire you can easily get
burned. Please be careful.

The writer is the founder and co-director of IPCRI, the Israel Palestine
Center for Research and Information. He also hosts a weekly radio show in
Hebrew on All for Peace radio

Gershon Baskin, Ph.D. Co-CEO, IPCRI
Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information
P.O. Box 9321, Jerusalem 91092
Tel: +972-2-676-9460 Fax: +972-2-676-8011
Cellphone: +972-(0)52-238-1715
<mailto:ger...@ipcri.org> ger...@ipcri.org
<http://www.ipcri.org/> http://www.ipcri.org

gershonbaskin on twitter

gershonbas on skype

<http://ipcri.donation-tools.org/Packages/pkgDirectDownload.aspx?causeid=159
&pkgType=2> http://ipcri.donation-tools.org/ipcri/Images/button.jpg

Contribute to Peace - Contribute to IPCRI
<http://www.ipcri.org/donate.html> http://www.ipcri.org/donate.html
<http://www.litrom.com/ipcri> http://www.litrom.com/ipcri

P Please consider the environment before printing this e-mail
אנא חישבו על הסביבה לפני הדפסת הדוא"ל הזה
الرجاء: فكّروا بجودة البيئة قبل طباعة هذه الرسالة الالكتروني