Encountering Peace: What's next? (Gershon Baskin, Jerusalem Post)
Gershon Baskin
Dear Friends,
I had the amazing privilege to take part in opening a back channel for
negotiations that succeeded with the signing of an agreement for the
prisoners exchange that brought Gilead Schalit home. For almost all Israelis
this was a day of unity, solidarity and celebration. On the Palestinian
side, 1027 Palestinian prisoners are returning to their homes, where
hopefully they will engage in normal lives and will turn their desires to
take part in the Palestinian national struggle through non-violent means.
I had the abilities to open this channel and to take part in the
negotiations because of IPCRI. Without the institutional support of IPCRI
and the 23+ years of experience I gained from developing and leading this
institution, I would not have been in the position to achieve the prisoners’
deal.
I am asking you once again to contribute to the ongoing activities of IPCRI.
There is still much work ahead of us. For years I have been saying that I
will bring Gilead Schalit home. For even longer I have said that we will
bring peace, and we will! But we need your support.
How to contribute:
Make an online safe and quick payment here:
http://www.ipcri.org/IPCRI/Donate.html
or send a check to:
IPCRI
PO Box 9321, Jerusalem 91092 Israel
<http://www.jpost.com/> jpost
Print Edition
Photo by: REUTERS
Encountering Peace: What’s next?
By GERSHON BASKIN
25/10/2011
Economic development is Gaza may not be a motivating idea for Hamas leaders,
but it is in the interests of Israel.
Rarely have so many Israelis celebrated an event with such solidarity and
national pride. So many of the hundreds of thank-you letters I have received
from people I have never met included expressions about their connectedness
to this country and to each other. The return of Gilad Schalit brought out
the best in most of us, and few people I know did not have tears in their
eyes when we saw him for the first time. We all felt proud when he saluted
the prime minister and the chief of staff. We cried with joy when we saw him
speaking to his mother Aviva on the phone for the first time in over five
years. We are all concerned about his recovery and reintegration into his
family and into society.
But many people have asked me: what’s next? Does the agreement with Hamas
represent a new possibility for political dialogue and understanding with
this radical Islamic movement? As the Israeli who probably has more hours of
dialogue and exchange with Hamas officials than almost anyone else I can
honestly say: I don’t know.
In the moment of elation after it became clear that we had reached an
agreement, my counterpart in the negotiations for the prisoner exchange said
to me “inshallah[God willing], next we bring peace!” My personal wishes are
certainly with his expression of hope. But in the days following it was
quite clear from our daily phone calls that chances for dialogue or
negotiations between us on political issues are still far away. Neither
Hamas nor Israel is ready to enter into the kind of talks that could result
in a political agreement that would include prospects for peace. This does
not eliminate the possibility of talking to Hamas about a long-term
cease-fire, perhaps another version of what some members of the Israeli
government call long-term interim agreements, instead of a permanent-status
agreement for peace. Right now that is not in the cards.
Right now, Hamas is interested in advancing two main goals: ending the
economic and political siege on Gaza and reconciling with Fatah. Both of
these goals have their negative and positive impacts for Israel and must be
carefully considered and weighed by Israeli decision makers.
ONLY TIME will tell whether or not the opening of the Gaza economy was
officially part of the deal to release Schalit. In the early days of the
official negotiations I was asked to inform Hamas that once Schalit was no
longer in Gaza Israel would allow major economic development and
infrastructure projects to be implemented there. Some in Israel believed
this could serve as an incentive to the Hamas leaders to advance the deal.
It was not.To the contrary: that proposal was essentially ignored. At no
point in those talks did my Hamas interlocutors express any real interest in
pursuing that discussion. My hunch - that economic issues would not excite
Hamas leaders to make compromises - proved to be correct.
Economic development is Gaza may not be a motivating idea for Hamas leaders,
but it is in the interests of Israel. Gaza, with nearly 60 percent
unemployment, is not a happy place.
People with no work and no income are not prone to become politically
moderate. Before the economic siege on Gaza most working people in Gaza,
especially those fortunate enough to work in Israel, comprised what could be
called Gaza’s middle class. The farmers in Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia who
exported their flowers and strawberries to Europe through Agrexco were very
pleased to work with Israelis and were among Gaza’s strongest peace
advocates. The 4,500 Gazans who worked in the Erez industrial zone for
Israeli companies were gainfully employed and for the most part had very
good relations with their Israeli colleagues.
Those days are long gone. For most of the past six years some 90% of the
factories in Gaza have been closed. This situation is not normal and it does
not serve the cause of supporting the redevelopment of a moderate Gazan
middle class.
It is clear to me that Hamas is undergoing deep-rooted changes, although it
is too early to predict where these will lead. The continuing revolutions
around the Arab world and the spirit of the Arab Spring are having their
impact on Hamas as well. As a sister movement of the Muslim Brotherhood,
Hamas is now officially part of the opposition to the Assad regime in Syria.
Syrian attacks against Palestinian refugee camps were the blow that made it
quite apparent that Hamas had to begin to remove its headquarters from
Damascus.
Over the past months they have been implementing a plan which they call
“soft exit,” aimed at leaving Damascus without making too much noise. But
where to go? The Iranians offered them a new home base in Teheran, but Hamas
rejected that offer as part of their desire to move away from the extremists
elements, particularly in the Shi’ite world. Hamas’s funding from Iran has
also come to a standstill. They were offered to relocate some of their
operations to Qatar and they are likely to set up some offices there, but
Qatar is far away from Palestine.
The most natural place to go is Cairo, and that is in fact what is
happening. Despite official denials by both Egypt and Hamas, many of the
groups operations that were located in Damascus are now relocating to Cairo.
Some have also moved to Gaza.
The Egyptian success in negotiating the final deal for the prisoner exchange
was t least partly due to the new leverage that Egypt gained by its
willingness to allow Hamas to move to Cairo. Now Egypt, facing severe
problems in Sinai, is intent on regulating and managing the relations with
Gaza. In the past Egypt feared having to take on responsibility for the
welfare of Gaza. Now it seems that if they don’t take on more responsibility
they may lose control of Sinai. Egypt is interested in moving the tunnel
economy of Gaza above ground and I would not be surprised if in the near
future we begin to see the decision to open a cargo terminal at the Rafah
crossing.
Hamas is also undergoing the beginnings of internal democratic processes.
There are preparations underway for the elections of the Shura council. This
is the highest decision- making body of the Hamas movement.
Until now the Shura council has been a secret body that was formed and
selected by Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. Over the years, as some of
its highest-level members were killed by Israel, including its founder,
decisions were made to add new members, such as Ahmed Ja’abri – the
strongman of Hamas’s military wing.
Elections for the Shura council would be an expression of the movement’s
awareness of the need to be more transparent and accountable to the people.
It would also reflect a keen understanding of movement’s loss of popularity
prior to the prisoner release. There is definitely competition among both
groups and individuals for leadership positions in Hamas, and it will be
most interesting to see if more moderate people in the movement can rise to
positions of real leadership.
IN THIS context I would like to remind everyone, especially Gazans and even
more so the leaders of Hamas, that the people of Gaza paid an extraordinary
price for holding one Israeli soldier. The release of 1027 Palestinian
prisoners may be considered by some as a victory for the Palestinian people,
but what about the more than 2000 Gazans who paid with their lives and the
1.7 million people who have suffered economic destruction and despair
because of the decision of their leaders to hold an Israeli soldier in
captivity for more than 5 years? It is time for Palestinians to challenge
the leaders who have brought that doom on their own people.
It is also time for the Palestinian people who demand that Israel observe
international law begin to question the Hamas policies that denied Gilad
Schalit even the most basic rights under international law as a prisoner of
war. Schalit was denied visits by the International Red Cross. He was denied
any contact with his family. For more than five years he did not see the
light of day. Islam might guarantee the rights of prisoners to receive
health care, food and shelter, but international law requires more than
that.
Finally, the questions being debated now by the government of Israel
following the boost that was given to Hamas from the prisoner exchange are
what policies it should adopt that will strengthen Palestinian Authority
President Mahmoud Abbas. Some advisors close to Prime Minister Netanyahu are
calling for punishing Abbas because of his drive to achieve statehood
recognition through the United Nations. The questions being asked are the
wrong ones.
Israel’s concern is what Israel should do to serve the interests, the needs
and the values of Israel. Israel wants to make peace with its neighbors.
Israel is interested in the establishment of a peaceful democratic Palestine
next to Israel. I still believe that Israel’s primary partner for making
peace is the PLO led by Abbas. Peace between Israel and Palestine, based on
two states for two peoples, remains the only formula for real peace. Gaza
and the West Bank will make up the territory of the future Palestinian
state. Implementation in Gaza of a peace treaty, after it is reached, will
depend on whether or not the regime there is partner to the agreement. That
decision will have to be made by the Palestinian people, especially those
who live in Gaza.
In the meantime we need to advance Israel’s interests by entering into
genuine negotiations with President Abbas. In parallel we need to normalize
life in Gaza and reconnect its economy with that of the West Bank.
This is not a reward to Hamas, it is an expression of understanding that
steps in that direction will lead to the moderation of the people of Gaza
and Palestine.
The writer is the co-CEO of the Israel Palestine Center for Research and
Information and a radio host on All for Peace Radio.
Gershon Baskin, Ph.D. Co-CEO, IPCRI
Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information
P.O. Box 9321, Jerusalem 91092
Tel: +972-2-676-9460 Fax: +972-2-676-8011
Cellphone: +972-(0)52-238-1715
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