How the eddy affects San Francisco bay wind? Also, what about marine layer?

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Takayanagi Toshinari

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Jul 12, 2024, 6:38:18 PMJul 12
to International Laser Class Association District 24
Hello,

I subscribe to silflow.com forecast. It includes “SailFlow ProForecast” in text written by local meteorologists, but it usually hard to understand for me, as it seems it is written assuming the readers already have fair amount of local meteorology knowledge. I just copied today’s one, and also added the link it is referring to. 

It is mentioning “counter clock eddy” outside the coast. If this counter clock eddy is large/strong, the wind in the bay becomes weaker or stronger? It looks the wind gets weaker because the NW wind gets harder to curve into the bay from Golden Gate bridge?

Also, what is the relationship between the marine layer and the wind? I might have asked this before, but I never learned it… I have an impression that the sea breeze gets stronger after the marine layer cleared up, but I am not sure. Last Sunday, there was marine layer fog around the RYC 12-2pm, but there was reasonable wind.

Thanks,
Toshi



SailFlow Pro Forecast

Pro Forecast

San Francisco forecast valid for Fri, Jul 12 2024

Issued Fri, Jul 12 11:30:00 by SailFlow Meteorologist Mike Godsey - Next scheduled update: 7:00 PM
Special updates issued as needed.

Eddy dies then solid wind from Anita Rock to Brooks Island to Larkspur/Clark's Brickyards to Sherman PM and 3rd. Ave. Channel to near launch sites.

Blog: Satellite animation of tiny eddy dying today but tomorrow...!

Update: I have updated the table numbers now that we finally have high resolution model data to help with forecasting. In the blog above you can clearly see the tiny counter-clockwise eddy off the Golden Gate. As it dies, the NW ocean winds curve and accelerate as they are pulled by the pressure gradient towards Napa, Sacramento Stockton and a lesser gradient towards Bakersfield. The only change I am making to the forecast is to up the Pt. Isabel numbers a bit and drop the Larkspur/Clark's Brickyards number a smidgen. 

From 7:30 AM: Southerly eddy coast winds extend from Santa Cruz to Stinson. However, strong NW ocean winds have already reached Pt. Reyes, assuring the eddy's quick demise. So this afternoon expect upper-teens to low 20's focused from North Tower/Anita Rock to Brooks Island and near Pt. Isabel with bit lighter winds for Larkspur/Clark's Brickyards and 3rd. Ave. Channel to near launch sites. Why: 
1. The North Pacific High ridge pushes inland and resulting low-pressure off Sonoma coast stirs up a counter-clockwise eddy and southerly coast winds. 
2. NW ocean winds hits the coast and low-pressure moves to Napa to Sacramento to Stockton area in the afternoon, so eddy dies and W-WSW winds move through San Bruno Gap and the Golden Gate. 
3. That Napa pressure gradient makes favorable SSW winds Larkspur/Clark's Brickyards and less favorable SSW winds for Pt. Isabel, Race Track and Berkeley. 
4. AS WNW winds move through the San Bruno Gap the Stockton gradient tries to curve the WNW wind away from the 3rd. Ave. launch sites while also sucking WSW winds towards the Golf Range. So expect a wind battle over the launch sites with WNW mostly the victor. All this favors Palo Alto.



https://blog.tempest.earth/west-coast-wind-blog-tiny-eddy-dies-today-but-the-stage-is-set-for-a-massive-eddy-tomorrow/


By Mike Godsey

As I write at 10:45 AM on July 12, a tiny eddy is dying between the Golden Gate and Stinson Beach. This satellite animation shows the current winds as the eddy dies. This afternoon, with the eddy gone, mild NW winds reach into the Bay.

Tiny-Eddy-2024-07-12-10-33-11.2024-07-12-10_38_57.gif

With a max pressure gradient towards Sacramento, we should see strong WSW to SW winds north of the Bay Bridge. But that NW flow helps the 3rd. Ave. 

The channel should be windy, but a combo of a Stockton gradient and maybe some WSW flow from the Hwy. 92 gap area may make the 3rd. Ave. launch sites are iffy at times.

But tomorrow, I expect an elongated counter-clockwise eddy that will impact much of the California coast.


Tracy Usher

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Jul 12, 2024, 7:17:13 PMJul 12
to Takayanagi Toshinari, International Laser Class Association District 24


It is worth to read their blog as it contains a lot of background information.

When an eddy forms just off the coast it will create a southwest flow which is not a great angle for the City Front and can suppress velocity there (and be more puffy with swirling puffs coming down off the bluffs above Crissy.

For the circle I think the gradients to the valley are far more important.

Sent from my iPhone 

On Jul 12, 2024, at 3:38 PM, Takayanagi Toshinari <toshinari....@gmail.com> wrote:


Hello,

I subscribe to silflow.com forecast. It includes “SailFlow ProForecast” in text written by local meteorologists, but it usually hard to understand for me, as it seems it is written assuming the readers already have fair amount of local meteorology knowledge. I just copied today’s one, and also added the link it is referring to. 

It is mentioning “counter clock eddy” outside the coast. If this counter clock eddy is large/strong, the wind in the bay becomes weaker or stronger? It looks the wind gets weaker because the NW wind gets harder to curve into the bay from Golden Gate bridge?

Also, what is the relationship between the marine layer and the wind? I might have asked this before, but I never learned it… I have an impression that the sea breeze gets stronger after the marine layer cleared up, but I am not sure. Last Sunday, there was marine layer fog around the RYC 12-2pm, but there was reasonable wind.

Thanks,
Toshi



SailFlow Pro Forecast

Pro Forecast

San Francisco forecast valid for Fri, Jul 12 2024

Issued Fri, Jul 12 11:30:00 by SailFlow Meteorologist Mike Godsey - Next scheduled update: 7:00 PM
Special updates issued as needed.

Eddy dies then solid wind from Anita Rock to Brooks Island to Larkspur/Clark's Brickyards to Sherman PM and 3rd. Ave. Channel to near launch sites.

Blog: Satellite animation of tiny eddy dying today but tomorrow...!

Update: I have updated the table numbers now that we finally have high resolution model data to help with forecasting. In the blog above you can clearly see the tiny counter-clockwise eddy off the Golden Gate. As it dies, the NW ocean winds curve and accelerate as they are pulled by the pressure gradient towards Napa, Sacramento Stockton and a lesser gradient towards Bakersfield. The only change I am making to the forecast is to up the Pt. Isabel numbers a bit and drop the Larkspur/Clark's Brickyards number a smidgen. 

From 7:30 AM: Southerly eddy coast winds extend from Santa Cruz to Stinson. However, strong NW ocean winds have already reached Pt. Reyes, assuring the eddy's quick demise. So this afternoon expect upper-teens to low 20's focused from North Tower/Anita Rock to Brooks Island and near Pt. Isabel with bit lighter winds for Larkspur/Clark's Brickyards and 3rd. Ave. Channel to near launch sites. Why: 
1. The North Pacific High ridge pushes inland and resulting low-pressure off Sonoma coast stirs up a counter-clockwise eddy and southerly coast winds. 
2. NW ocean winds hits the coast and low-pressure moves to Napa to Sacramento to Stockton area in the afternoon, so eddy dies and W-WSW winds move through San Bruno Gap and the Golden Gate. 
3. That Napa pressure gradient makes favorable SSW winds Larkspur/Clark's Brickyards and less favorable SSW winds for Pt. Isabel, Race Track and Berkeley. 
4. AS WNW winds move through the San Bruno Gap the Stockton gradient tries to curve the WNW wind away from the 3rd. Ave. launch sites while also sucking WSW winds towards the Golf Range. So expect a wind battle over the launch sites with WNW mostly the victor. All this favors Palo Alto.



https://blog.tempest.earth/west-coast-wind-blog-tiny-eddy-dies-today-but-the-stage-is-set-for-a-massive-eddy-tomorrow/


As I write at 10:45 AM on July 12, a tiny eddy is dying between the Golden Gate and Stinson Beach. This satellite animation shows the current winds as the eddy dies. This afternoon, with the eddy gone, mild NW winds reach into the Bay.

With a max pressure gradient towards Sacramento, we should see strong WSW to SW winds north of the Bay Bridge. But that NW flow helps the 3rd. Ave. 

The channel should be windy, but a combo of a Stockton gradient and maybe some WSW flow from the Hwy. 92 gap area may make the 3rd. Ave. launch sites are iffy at times.

But tomorrow, I expect an elongated counter-clockwise eddy that will impact much of the California coast.

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Bauman, Brian J.

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Jul 12, 2024, 7:21:36 PMJul 12
to Takayanagi Toshinari, International Laser Class Association District 24

This could create quite a bit of discussion.  Here’s my 2 cents:

 

My mental picture has the NWish wind blowing down the coast, due to the Pacific High well offshore.  As the wind goes by Point Arena and/or Point Reyes sticking out into the Pacific, a turbulent eddy can be created behind the point(s) on the coastline side, just as would happen if were talking about the current flowing down the coast—you would get a current eddy behind the point.  That eddy means that the stronger flow of air is offshore more than if the eddy were not there.  So to enter the bay, the wind must turn more than it would without the eddy—picture the eddy extending down almost to the Golden Gate.  The strong air offshore would need to make a 90 degree turn to enter the Gate.  Inertia of the air being what it is, that’s hard to do, resulting in a weaker flow.

 

Starting with a NNW wind going by Point Arena, I think the wind would trip turbulent and create an eddy behind the point.  As you shift the breeze more westerly (say, NW), the wind would skate by Point Arena without creating much of an eddy, but would then be tripped up by Point Reyes, creating an eddy near the Golden Gate, and perhaps in front of the Golden Gate.  As you shift the wind more westerly yet (say WNW), the wind skates by Point Reyes without much of an eddy, and the wind is more easily able to curve into the bay.

With a max pressure gradient towards Sacramento, we should see strong WSW to SW winds north of the Bay Bridge. But that NW flow helps the 3rd. Ave. 

The channel should be windy, but a combo of a Stockton gradient and maybe some WSW flow from the Hwy. 92 gap area may make the 3rd. Ave. launch sites are iffy at times.

But tomorrow, I expect an elongated counter-clockwise eddy that will impact much of the California coast.

 

 

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Takayanagi Toshinari

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Jul 12, 2024, 11:24:29 PMJul 12
to Bauman, Brian J., Tracy Usher, International Laser Class Association District 24
Thank you very much, Tracy, Brian. I think I very roughly understood about effect of the eddy. 

I started reading their blog (https://blog.tempest.earth/), large part of which is challenging to understand, but I plan to read it occasionally so that I can get more familiar with the weather matters.

Thanks,
Toshi


On Jul 12, 2024, at 16:16, Tracy Usher <tracy...@gmail.com> wrote:



It is worth to read their blog as it contains a lot of background information.

When an eddy forms just off the coast it will create a southwest flow which is not a great angle for the City Front and can suppress velocity there (and be more puffy with swirling puffs coming down off the bluffs above Crissy.

For the circle I think the gradients to the valley are far more important.

Sent from my iPhone 
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