New and Upcoming Industries

[David Yeh]

Henry mentioned about solar, natural resources and i just bring up paypal founder on TSLA

[Henry Chan]

I have found something old but interesting to discuss. About the 12 th five years plan of China PRC. 

From wiki

Twelfth Guideline (2011–2015)

The Twelfth Five-Year Guideline was debated in mid-October 2010 at the fifth plenary session of the 17th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the same session in which Xi Jinping was selected as Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission. A full proposal for the plan was released following the plenum and approved by the National People's Congress on March 14, 2011, with the goals of addressing rising inequality and creating an environment for more sustainable growth by prioritizing more equitable wealth distribution, increased domestic consumption, and improved social infrastructure and social safety nets.^[7]

The plan is representative of China's efforts to rebalance its economy, shifting emphasis from investment towards consumption and development from urban and coastal areas toward rural and inland areas - initially by developing small cities and greenfield districts to absorb coastal migration. The plan also continues to advocate objectives set out in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan to enhance environmental protection, accelerate the process of opening and reform, and emphasize Hong Kong's role as a center of international finance.^{[7][8][9][10]}

The targets for the Twelfth Five-Year Guidleine in 2011 were to grow of GDP by around 8%, 7% annual growth of per capita income, spend 2.2% of GDP on research and development by 2015, bring the population below 1.39 billion by 2015, readjust income distribution to stop the yawning gap, firmly curb excessive rise of housing prices, implement prudent monetary policy, intensify anti-corruption efforts, accelerate economic restructuring, and deal with the complex situations in development in 2011.^[11]

Among the other highlights of draft plan distributed to the media prior to the opening of the Fourth Session of the 11th NPC are:

• Urbanization rate reaching 51.5%
• Value-added output of emerging strategic industries accounting for 8% of GDP
• Inviting of foreign investment in modern agriculture, high-tech, and environment protection industries
• Moving coastal regions from being the "world's factory" to hubs of research and development, high-end manufacturing, and the service sector
• More efficient development of nuclear power under the precondition of ensured safety
• Increased momentum for large-scale hydropower plants in southwest China
• Length of high-speed railways reaching 45,000 km
• Length of highway networks reaching 83,000 km
• A new airport being built in Beijing
• 36 million new affordable apartments for low-income people

Key themes:

1. Sustainable growth
   
2. Moving up the value chain
   
3. Reducing disparities
   
4. Scientific development
   
5. Environmental protection
   
6. Energy efficiency
   
7. Domestic consumption

We can add up ideas on the above theme.

Also the Seven priority industry:

1. New energy - nuclear, wind and solar power
   
2. Energy conservation and environmental protection - energy reduction targets
   
3. Biotechnology - Drugs and medical devices
   
4. New materials - rare earths and high-end semiconductors
   
5. New IT - Broadband networks, internet security infrastructure, network convergence
   
6. High-end equipment manufacturing - Aerospace and telecom equipment
   
7. Clean energy vehicles
   

[David Yeh Jr.]

TSLA is expensive on valuation basis.  However, are they producing something really innovative and there is a change in this market place?  I feel if they are like a star company for the future (like apple case)   this could be the beginning of a long bull run especially the founder is great guy at innovation.  We should also watch for short covering on this stock cause there is a big short position built up already.

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[Chan Henry]

It's nice if we can figure it out for the products and their business models. Good to hear about a new star company at early stage.

[David Yeh Jr.]

It is not easy to identify. Like apple for example, when it was launching i pods long time ago, i was asking myself, this thing really looks like it is going to change the landscape of music playing, so i deployed some money in it.  i must admit i did not have the guts to look it thru the whole cycle.

Let's look at TSLA closer and see if they have something really innovational.  Is there any resource/person that we can pull for this one?

[Tommy Chen]

The CEO

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk 

He was co-founder of paypal.

His vision was to create the Tesla Roadster as a means to that end—a car aimed specifically at affluent early adopters, whose purchase of the sports car would subsidize the research and development costs of lower priced models of electric vehicles. 

Electric car is a trend going forward. Similar concept as BYD. 

Chart looks good too. 

Expensive PE is fine provided trend is intact for US companies.

[Henry Chan]

Critical products for the firm's success are:
2008 Roadster
2012 Model S
2014 Model X

For Model S will be launched at summer.
They expected to sale 20K units per year. 2012 produce 5K.
Base price US 50K,
Total sale expected 2012 = US 250M
2013 onwards = US 1B
http://www.teslamotors.com/models/facts

Model X at 2014, price around US 50K
We unveiled the Model X Design prototype on February 9, 2012. It represents our current vision for this groundbreaking vehicle. We expect to begin production of Model X in late 2013, ramping up deliveries in early 2014. Model X will be priced comparable to a similarly equipped Model S. More details will be announced as production nears.
http://www.teslamotors.com/modelx

What essential to note is their cash level. Given their large CAPEX, the product need to be launched on time and the sale need to be good enough to maintain company's cash level.

The car/product is innovative and cool. I think they have better chance to win out EVs market. Let see if BYD have such competitive products too.

Tommy Chen於 2012年3月13日星期二UTC+8下午1時10分14秒寫道：

[Henry Chan]

The Most Energy Dense Packs in the Industry

The battery pack in the Tesla Roadster is the result of innovative systems engineering and 20 years of advances in Lithium-ion cell technology. Tesla's ingenious battery pack architecture enables world-class acceleration, safety, range, and reliability. The non-toxic pack is built at Tesla’s Headquarters in Northern California.

The pack weighs 990 pounds, stores 56 kWh of electric energy, and delivers up to 215 kW of electric power. Tesla battery packs have the highest energy density in the industry. To achieve this energy density, Tesla starts with thousands of best-in-class Lithium-ion cells and assembles them into a liquid-cooled battery pack, wrapped in a strong metal enclosure. The battery is optimized for performance, safety, longevity, and cost.

http://www.teslamotors.com/roadster/technology/battery

• Full-sized cars
• Tesla Roadster, USA, EU and Asia, li-ion powered sports car by Tesla Motors with 245 mi (394 km) range, 125 mph (201 km/h) top speed and 0 to 60 mph (0 to 97 km/h) in 3.7 seconds acceleration.
• Highest range, top speed EVcar currently
• Mitsubishi i MiEV, Japan and Hong Kong, lithium-ion battery pack with 130 kilometres (80 mi) range, and a top speed of 130 kilometres per hour (80 mph).^[1]
• Nissan Leaf introduced in the United States and Japan in December 2010,^[4][5] followed by Portugal in January 2011, Ireland in February, the U.K. in March, Netherlands and Canada in June, France in August, Spain in September, Norway in October, Switzerland and China in November 2011, with global market availability planned for 2012.^[6]

• Cars planned for production - potential competitors
  
• BMW i3 with production scheduled for 2013.

• BYD e6 - market launch in China and the U.S. has been re-scheduled several times. Now slated for the U.S. market in 2011
• Tesla Model S planned for 2012 delivery. Base model cost is $57,400.

• Toyota FT-EV At the 2009 Detroit Auto Show, Toyota debuted the FT-EV electric car based on the Toyota iQ microcar platform. They said a production version could be available by 2012.^[26]
• Volvo C30 Electric

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_production_battery_electric_vehicles#Full-sized_cars

I think tesla will enjoy the first starters advantages first. While searching, doesn't have reliable source on the special tech tesla have owned. Will do extensive search on the battery.

[Henry Chan]

Paper, Research on the Tesla

[David Yeh]

how is NXPI any findings?  Henry, Tommy if you guys free, we meet at 4pm today

[Henry Chan]

operating earnings normally better than peers
debt improving from 200% to 100% in the nearest report
NFC leading role award winning technology
Leading patent among peers
corporate with leading company on industry of auto, mobile and so

NXP's NFC Solution

NXP co-invented NFC in 2002 and has since evolved this into a market proven technology today. In 2004 NXP co-founded the NFC Forum to lead the collaboration with all industry stakeholders and help standardize the technology. NFC technology evolved from a combination of contactless identification (RFID) and interconnection technologies from its traditional transit, access control, bank card and tag businesses.

Today NXP's solution powers NFC solutions for Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Google and others. NXP technology is available in a variety of form factors including standalone NFC radio controllers such as the market leading PN544, a stacked NFC radio and embedded secure element solution such as the Google Wallet enabling PN65, microSD NFC solutions through 3rd party partners, a range of NFC compliant NFC tags and ISO 14443 and ISO 18092 contactless readers. NXP is ranked as the number one contactless IC vendor by ABI Research for three years in a row encompassing NXP's global leadership in NFC solutions, field proven in over 150 NFC trials and landmark commercial deployments worldwide.

NXP as the co-founder of NFC technology in 2002 and the leader in ID technologies pervasive through access control, secure identification, and NFC tags, enables these enhanced mobile experiences. In mobile, NXP NFC technology ensures secure transactions, interoperable transactions and high performance end to end transactions that are quickly expanding the at home and in the office mobile possibilities.

NXP’s NFC Solutions Shine at SESAMES Awards

11/15/2011 | 01:00pm

Two awards for NFC software stack and secure NFC module PN65 highlight NXP's leading position in NFC

Eindhoven, Netherlands and Paris, France, November 15, 2011 - NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NASDAQ: NXPI), the global leader in the Identification market, announced today that it has received two SESAMES Awards for its NFC solutions. At its 16th annual award ceremony held at CARTES & IDentification 2011, an independent jury recognized NXP's outstanding achievements in NFC with SESAMES Awards for the PN65 in the category Best Mobility Application and for the Android NFC open source software stack in the category Best Software. Rewarding technological innovation, the SESAMES Awards have become a well-respected benchmark in the smart card and identification industry.

http://www.4-traders.com/news/NXP-s-NFC-Solutions-Shine-at-SESAMES-Awards--13892711/

take a look on the 2012 1Q forecast
http://investors.nxp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=209114&p=irol-IRHome

More on the company presentation
http://www.nxp.com/documents/other/NXP_company_presentation.pdf


Btw, any specialist in this industry? I think they would be more passionate on the products and see the potential growth of the industry and the technology.

David Yeh於 2012年3月23日星期五UTC+8上午9時48分55秒寫道：

[David Yeh Jr.]

Thanks Henry, forgot tommy has appointment today.  We shall meet around 4 -415 at my office to discuss further then

[David Yeh]

ACOM TRAK LQDT EQIX RAX still on my radar list.  RAX came to a support point, EQIX is a breakout, TRAK i am not sure about the business model and ACOM the model has always been interesting

[Henry Chan]

upcoming forecast for fast growing industry, any areas you think interesting?

definitely some of the future giants will come out from some of industry... 

[Tommy Chen]

FB up 20%+

--

Tommy CH Chen

[Henry Chan]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/10/23/gartner-top-10-strategic-technology-trends-for-2013/

any things sounds new and special?

[David Yeh]

Recently environmental stocks another area to look .  1072 is involved with nuclear, will this be a potential candidate given the PE is quite low

[Henry Chan]

Yes I think nuclear is good area to grow for the future, and when comparing w the upside, 1072/1133 should be a good candidate.