Investment idea

[Henry Chan]

pls discuss ways to invest in stock market.

[Tommy]

Good forum!

[David Yeh]

The market start turning south from the day before and obviously yesterday was it with much higher volume?  I was looking at the portfolio and two things come into mind, what else do we need to trim and by how much and 2) if we have extra liquidity/buying power, what would we buy this time when market finds some kind of bottom, i would assume some strong and potential stock will not fall much this time cause people want to participate in its next run.  

Please bear these points in mind and we can discuss here.  The volume yesterday was a concern to me.

[Tommy Chen]

Yesterday big volume over 40B owing to AIA placement

Today saw news Brazil GDP growth drops to ~2% from 7.5% growth. If worldwide decelerates, equity market may get re-pricing.

I think we still want the business with durable competitive edge.

[David Yeh Jr.]

testing testing if i reply here it does not go back up to the forum

--
Davian Limited
Unit A, 11/F, Shun Ho Tower
24-30 Ice House Street
Central, Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 2295 3100
Fax: (852) 2295 0998
Email: d...@davian.com.hk
Important : The information contained in this e-mail and any attachment thereof
is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is
addressed and is confidential and may be privileged and/or otherwise protected
from disclosure. Any unauthorised use, copying, dissemination or any other
action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance upon this information is prohibited
The contents of this email are true and correct only to the best of our belief
and information.  We do not guarantee the accuracy and truthfulness of the
contents herein.  You should not rely on the contents herein unless you are
expressly asked by us to do so.  We are therefore not responsible for any
loss/claim or liability arising from or in connection with the contents herein.

[David Yeh]

i c so i can either reply or post here is OK too. Fantastic

We can look more on US china listed stock platform.  We have a pre screen list here in HK but we have not identified anything from US.  Henry, please study the US list so we have some candidates ready for this time if the market starts to bottom out.

[Henry Chan]

Ok! I will merge/add the US list into the sites. Let see if any sound candidate can come out.

從我的 iPhone 傳送

[David Yeh]

Have we thought which chinese companies will prosper like BIDU's case?  We discussed just now this company needs to be scale able.  We talked about YOKU but still losing money, also Henry raised CYOU which Jonathan might have some insights, i have sent him a message

Helen will consolidate and screen out the China list by coming up with few promising companies.  On the other hand, we shall look at global brand list and look for some long term steady play , we discussed Visa, Walmart

[David Yeh]

Last night Karman told me MS is bringing 3918 to roadshow in US.

[David Yeh]

1150 results come out not so good.  In this space, although people in China demand high luxury goods, there are many competition around. Based on our experience on HK companies, some like to capture money with IPO and later on go down the toilet.  Some really outstanding company would make great use of IPO and expand the business effectively.  i saw some of these companies in the past like 2018 , etc.  Of course there are other ones that market maker are behind, and they would use limited stock to manipulate stock price up and down.  

1150 we need to see how long term strategy play and how Mr. Yau leads the company.  If he has long term vision, he would probably leverage his brandname into China network on second hand items.

I learned something out from him as well.  Obviously he started or invested at a depressed time for HK, he then invested in real estate with leverage utilizing his cash flow .  In between he thought of many strategy to broaden out his business with marketing tactics.   Also, milan station is now a brandname where he can fetch attention and use market to create liquidity. 

The world is changing and the dynamics is evolving as well.  Next 10 years would probably be different than last 10 years.  The real estate story is funny in HK cause we have limited land (scarcity value as like we discuss selling insurance with no guarantee that the subject can be insured)  so with people in China with growing wealth will still us HK as a hub.  This could change for HK for the future but probably we will still be OK for the time being.  Somehow market will consolidate or shift due to certain change in market situation and we shall adjust to the new environment. 

If we can capture stocks now with few years of growth horizon, we should take the profit possibly in 3-5 X times .  It is getting more and more difficult to have companies enjoy a longer term of success like Apple.  Apple is a very rare exception.    I got to say like IBM for example, the long term story is still intact since the company is adjusting to the change of world's environment and i think that is why Buffett likes it.  

Above is just my two cents.  not necessary make total sense, hope to hear more from you guys with more brainstorming.   

[Tommy Chen]

I come across a company called IRBT (iRobot)

iRobot is a device to automatically clean the floor of house/apartment

[David Yeh Jr.]

Did we look at this befire?

[David Yeh Jr.]

also the market is seesawing esp before Easter holidays.  I shall keep in touch with you guys .  Henry, would appreciate if you can dig out the promising candidates both US and HK with your recent studies.

let list out the most promising ones as i am in the process of liquidating.

2012/4/1 David Yeh Jr. <d...@davian.com.hk>

[David Yeh]

i am thinking on this perspective,  if we think China macro as a whole, with the economical boom during the past few years, labor cost went up and margin goes down due to competition or other factors.  Generally, when we look at research report, market went up to 6000 is it purely on hype somehow either the market is really bearish about China's growth possibly in certain industries.  But on the other hand, people are rewarding certain companies with great PE such as 1044 ,700 , etc. We are see these are market leaders thus market are rewarding them.  SO if we think this way, we probably need to think what companies will emerge as market leaders  as situations changes from time to time.  We have not been looking thru this cause we have concentrating on numbers.  

I used to think a lot on this area cause it transform into the highest return.  Also, if we invest these companies when it was relatively undiscovered, our downside relatively is smaller. We learned from our 800 incident that we need to cut loss if certain ideas is not right.  800 we believed the future will turn out this way in favor of that company and honestly it has not been.  

The best idea of course will be like discover some really dirt cheap stock with low PE or low PB and in the future, the company could perform very well because it suddenly improves its sales and margin , like car industries in the old days.

I have liquidated more 569 recently, and we need to deploy some money into outstanding stocks.  Not only do we want to be successful in our day to day operations, we want to achieve success in investing.    We need to create cashflow, save it up , invest and we create a lots of value creations.  This process will be demanding just as anything else, but we want to commit and finish just as good as anything else. 

[David Yeh]

how do you find the alert for watch list email looking to you?  I cant really see any news coming up from there  how do you guys feel about this alert?

[Henry Chan]

In Bloomberg setting, we can only see the title if the news on the watchlist, we can not see the details inside...by the Bloomberg consultant. So we gonna watch the title only. 

從我的 iPhone 傳送

[David Yeh Jr.]

Maybe not so useful ?

[Henry Chan]

Yea, ok let's stop it first. I used to think they have a summary of news broadcasting.

從我的 iPhone 傳送

[Henry Chan]

From Tonite's investment seminar, summaries:
Pimco
Monetary easing creates 1. Inflation, 2. asset prices up 3. Lead to chances of default

Labor cost on US down 20%, China up 70% over 10 yrs, the competitive edge of china economy is lowering

US household still in deleveraging stage

Uncertain ahead : grey swans
1. Fiscal cliff
2. Elections year -us, France, Greece
3. Middle east issue, oil

Conclusion: high inflation, low growth.

Janus - opportunities

1.E-commerce
2. Oil production down, price up
3. Tech go up, ESP
A. Cloud computing, ESP on storage and security, e.g. Rack
B. data analysis
C. Mobile device
D. Social media

This year, est US growth around 2%

Any to add?

[Tommy Chen]

Some internet and storage stocks. Because I started to pay to Google for storage. We can imagine people need to pay for storage after free storage is used up.

RACK
EMC
NTAP

And with more internet transactions, VRSN could benefit too in terms of verification demands.

[David Yeh Jr.]

In term of these space i don't there will be any cheap valuation somehow its positioning in its relative market will be vital for longer term success .  Which one of these possess longer dominance positioning ?

[David Yeh Jr.]

Tommy there is one more stock that you mentioned in this space, you remember?

[Tommy Chen]

RAX ? EQUINX?

Tommy CH Chen

[David Yeh Jr.]

lots of good ones in this space have very high PEs

[Henry Chan]

We have discussed some marco trend on the next few years

1. Health care

2. technology - innovation 

apps for use

cross platform

Some of our target looking company:

DDD

EQIX

RAX

VRSN

CRM

dyj於 2012年4月25日星期三UTC+8下午10時40分29秒寫道：

[Tommy Chen]

DDD

The industry is a niche space. Expect industry revenue to double in 3-4 years time to US$3 billion. Currently US$1.5B for the whole industry revenue.

DDD expects 2012 revenue to be US$300M+, representing 20%+ market share worldwide. One of the market leaders.

Another competitor is SSYS, a slightly smaller rival which has been merged with an Israel company. SSYS revenue expect in 2012 around US$200M

http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000741478&fid=1725

The dream - Will you have a 3-D printer in your home by 2020? Maybe not, but it will surely have a stronger industrial presence by then, and it may make inroads to consumer use, too. The technology has a long way to go before being able to replace the factories and shops that produce our basic goods, but it will get there -- eventually.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/04/23/this-industry-is-on-fire-but-is-it-still-a-buy.aspx

The numbers are good, not much debt too.

The management - 

Mr. Abraham N. Reichental, Abe has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of 3D Systems Corp. at VIDAR Systems Corporation since September 19, 2003. Mr. Reichental served as Corporate Officer and General Manager of Sealed Air's Shrink Packaging Division at Sealed Air Corp. He served as Vice President of Sealed Air Corp. from 1994. He joined Sealed Air in 1981 and served as its Project Manager and over the next 22 years progressed through increasingly responsible positions in engineering, sales, marketing and general management in North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. He served as Regional Vice President of Asia-Pacific at Sealed Air Corp. from 1999 to 2001 and served as its Vice President and General Manager of Europe, Engineered Products Division from 1997 to 1999 and Corporate Vice President of Technology from 1993 to 1996. He served as a Director of New Product Development for Engineered Products Division at Sealed Air Corp. from 1988 to 1993 and served as its Manager of Sales and Marketing for Engineered Products Division, Europe from 1985 to 1988 and a Project Manager of Customer Applications Engineered Products Division from 1981 to 1985. He was first elected as an officer of Sealed Air in 1994. Mr. Reichental serves as a Director of Mumboe, Inc. and Cryovac Inc. He has been an Executive Director of 3D Systems Corp. since 2003.

http://investor.3dsystems.com/sites/default/files/downloads/April-2012-Investor-Presentation.pdf

[Tommy Chen]

http://investor.3dsystems.com/sites/default/files/downloads/April-2012-Investor-Presentation.pdf

Great article about the future of 3D printers and consumer products. In the article, from Investors.com, they discuss the possibility of people making the newest iPhone cover, instead of buying it. "We could be headed into an era where consumers could mix and match product designs the way DJ's combine songs".

 

"Empowering everyone with the capabilities of design is now possible," said Jeff Kowalski, chief technology officer for design software maker Autodesk. "It's an amazing power that's going to be unleashed on the consumer in short order."

 

With the fall of the price of 3D printers and their component design software, its becoming easier for consumers to begin this move towards making their own components  to consumer goods. Sub-$1,000 is near, and sub-$500 is possible, says 3D Systems CEO Abraham Reichental.

[Henry Chan]

Looks large markets being explored 

What's your friend's comment (HKU) on it?

Tommy Chen於 2012年4月28日星期六UTC+8上午10時50分30秒寫道：

[Tommy Chen]

He said HKU using it for long time, and he said manufacturing companies will need this as a must in order to maintain competitiveness

Sent from my iPhone

[Henry Chan]

Looks great, I have used autodesk products for 3D modeling too. If 3d printing works, I think many research and scientist also eager to use to for their research and engineer work ESP the building, manufacture, urban planning etc.

從我的 iPhone 傳送

[David Yeh]

Mabye i did  not press reply all.

what i said was i will dispose unproductive candidates and try to maintain 100% invested.  DDD any more insights to prove our point?

Market is really choppy with this kind of movement.  HK has broken its long term trend line again and how do you guys feel about US.  I would still look for strong candidates (esp with hew his) at this point cause it proves their strength.

[Tommy Chen]

Raymond Wong today morning meeting said with a view of French election result he is worried about second wave of tsunami from Europe. He said US will be leading.

He said 水向低流 and assets in US are cheap now.

For DDD, I think around $25 - $27 is entry point ? 

This industry is in growth track and like cloud computing or social networking they could be immune from downturns but PE is still reasonable in a sense.

[David Yeh]

KEYN is back to 15 and in within our theme, is earnings deteriorating very badly, now PE is 5X  Worth the punt?

[Chan Henry]

We see stocks market gonna face corrections for instability in US and Europe, good chance to see the real giant and out performers. 

[Tommy Chen]

I think keynote may be a small player in the field and competition facing it is large. 

Henry any new inputs or insights ? 

On Tuesday, May 8, 2012, David Yeh wrote:

KEYN is back to 15 and in within our theme, is earnings deteriorating very badly, now PE is 5X  Worth the punt?

On Monday, May 7, 2012 7:51:19 PM UTC+8, Tommy Chen wrote:

Raymond Wong today morning meeting said with a view of French election result he is worried about second wave of tsunami from Europe. He said US will be leading.

He said 水向低流 and assets in US are cheap now.

For DDD, I think around $25 - $27 is entry point ? 

This industry is in growth track and like cloud computing or social networking they could be immune from downturns but PE is still reasonable in a sense.

On Mon, May 7, 2012 at 11:44 AM, David Yeh <dyj...@gmail.com> wrote:

Mabye i did  not press reply all.

what i said was i will dispose unproductive candidates and try to maintain 100% invested.  DDD any more insights to prove our point?

Market is really choppy with this kind of movement.  HK has broken its long term trend line again and how do you guys feel about US.  I would still look for strong candidates (esp with hew his) at this point cause it proves their strength.

On Tuesday, May 1, 2012 2:08:56 PM UTC+8, Henry Chan wrote:

Looks great, I have used autodesk products for 3D modeling too. If 3d printing works, I think many research and scientist also eager to use to for their research and engineer work ESP the building, manufacture, urban planning etc.

從我的 iPhone 傳送

Tommy Chen <fearin...@gmail.com> 於 2012年5月1日 13:55 寫道：

He said HKU using it for long time, and he said manufacturing companies will need this as a must in order to maintain competitiveness

Sent from my iPhone

On 1 May, 2012, at 1:40 PM, Henry Chan <ban...@gmail.com> wrote:

Looks large markets being explored 

What's your friend's comment (HKU) on it?

Tommy Chen於 2012年4月28日星期六UTC+8上午10時50分30秒寫道：

http://investor.3dsystems.com/sites/default/files/downloads/April-2012-Investor-Presentation.pdf

Great article about the future of 3D printers and consumer products. In the article, from Investors.com, they discuss the possibility of people making the newest iPhone cover, instead of buying it. "We could be headed into an era where consumers could mix and match produ

--

Tommy CH Chen

[Henry Chan]

We can seek for opportunities in market corrections, to look at those stocks in our watchlist

從我的 iPhone 傳送

[David Yeh]

i think with this correction, we can see which one are the strongest and deploy money.   we are ready to go .  Please discuss over weekend as Henry is coming back

[Henry Chan]

US data got better and China mkt confidence is also improving.

What remains questions are the euro part.

Pls share views on this.

David Yeh於 2012年5月18日星期五UTC+8上午8時57分10秒寫道：

[Henry Chan]

Homes Prices Drop 2% to Post-Crisis Lows: Case-Shiller

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47597053 

We can see the estate price of US is improving

good looking at their economy and deleveraging process

Henry Chan於 2012年5月23日星期三UTC+8上午1時02分14秒寫道：

[Henry Chan]

US yst start to have large selling force and it has make a correction of 10% from peak.

We should alert the further sell-off in this stage.

 

We can either sell some stocks or use some put/VXX to hedge our postion

On the other hand, the govt bond market are going to perform better in hand.

 

So we can to keep in watch our portfolio and watchlist member. 

[David Yeh]

i have one thought that i would like to share with everyone.  

First i think stock market if we capture few big moments, those are the moments that we will make big and good money.  Otherwise, we shall look for individual opportunity where company valuation appears cheap or being undiscovered due to some explosive growth.  

I think valuation wise is cheap but honesty no idea when we will go crazy again with all the things going on.   I still believe sectors will remain outperform at this period and we shall remain SMART to capture the gains.  

Hopefully we can have a very intelligent mind that we can sort out both cashflow and Capital gain business at the same time. 

[Henry Chan]

Just update the portfolio list here

Symbol Last price       Shares Cost basis  Mkt value

2628           21.2 57.4          459.2 1216.88

3918           3.59 260            390 933.4

569           1.79 140            600 250.6

459           0.05 1500            195 75

8058            5.4         200            140 1080

DDD            36.5 1.3            263.796 360.62

2047.996 3916.5

Targets: 4800

Pls let me know if the portfolio's share is wrong here...

Our target this year is 25% from Jan 12, which is 48 million HKD.

Our portfolio just back to the market value as for Jan 12

While the HSI has up 1K from Jan 12

We should continue to make arrangement on the portfolio that keep leader and dispose lagger.

Pls tell me if anything wrong here 

[Tommy Chen]

Good. Clarity on target is power !

--

Tommy CH Chen

[Henry Chan]

England extending QE3

Euro and China cut interest rate

Will be good for high debt sector eg real estate and insurance sector

Sent from my iPhone

[David Yeh]

We have yet to have a meeting for a long time.  I think the market is still probably range trade or even go a bit downward.  Could Henry look at all the thread and consolidate all the topics and line out the interesting ideas from the beginning.  We need to do this exercise throughly so we can identify the candidates that we looked so far.  

Could we schedule a date this weekend so we can all prepare for this?  

[Chan Henry]

Ok sure let's consolidate the ideas running so far.

I am good at Sat nite time.

[David Yeh Jr.]

Can we meet on Sat nite, cause 31 night i have an appt.   I understand Tommy this week schedule might be a bit difficult, can you suggest other slots

[Tommy Chen]

Facebook monetizing

臉書擬推收費發信息服務 (15:30)

社交網站臉書宣布，測試信息收費服務，允許「陌生人」通過付費將信息傳遞到收信人的「收件箱」。

臉書（facebook）公司在一項聲明中說，這項測試服務將會在一些特定情況中發揮作用，比如允許用戶向在某個場合獲知並非臉書好友的人發送信息，或者為了工作機會聯絡某個不太熟的人等。

「對於收信人來說，這項測試將允許他們收到那些有重要信息的人向他們發送的信息，」臉書說。

臉書表示，這項服務將會有效阻止垃圾郵件，目前只提供給部分美國用戶進行測試，測試期間收費為每條信息1美元，但該公司仍在測算「最優」價格。用戶每周只會收到一次這種付費的信息。

臉書於2010年推出集電子郵件、即時通訊和短訊等為一體的全新平台，擁有過濾來信的功能。目前臉書的信息系統會將來自好友的重要信息發送至收信人的「收件箱」，而來自「陌生人」的信息則會被歸入該公司於2011年推出的「其他」文件夾。這一文件夾在大多數時候會被用戶忽略，但有時其中也包含某些有效信息。

[David Yeh Jr.]

is FB really building its revenue model?

[Tommy Chen]

The question is do we think users would pay $$ for promoting their status updates or send message to someone not yet connected or other channels of making more social contacts. Would we pay some $$ if we were to promote ourselves? 

Facebook says it is testing a service that will charge users $1 to guarantee that messages they send to people they are not connected to arrive in users' inboxes, rather than in an often-ignored folder called "other."

Launched in 2011, the "other" folder is where Facebook routes messages it deems less relevant. Not quite spam, these include messages from people you most likely don't know, based on Facebook's reading of your social connections. Many users ignore this folder.

Now, users will be able to pay $1 to route their messages to non-friends. Facebook said Thursday that it is testing the service with a small percentage of individuals - not businesses - in the U.S.

"For example, if you want to send a message to someone you heard speak at an event but are not friends with, or if you want to message someone about a job opportunity, you can use this feature to reach their Inbox," Facebook said in an online post. "For the receiver, this test allows them to hear from people who have an important message to send them."

The company says charging for messages could help discourage spammers.

In October, Facebook unveiled another feature that lets users pay if they want more people to read their updates. For $7, users can promote a post to their friends, just as advertisers do.

[Tommy Chen]

I come across this interesting company called SodaStream. It sells combo products for US / International to households to DIY carbonated drinks! Is it changing the landscape of soft drinks??

Stock ticker: SODA

http://www.sodastreamusa.com/product_info.aspx

Home Soda Makers

Making carbonated water and soft drinks is simple! Turn tap water into sparkling water in under 30 seconds, with no clean-up. Enjoy the freshness and convenience of homemade soda and protect the environment at the same time. No heavy bottles to carry, store at home or throw away. Fizz to your taste and add the flavor of your choice to make your favorite drink. Simple to clean and reuse. With a variety of colors and silhouettes, you'll be sure to find a soda maker to match with any decor.

 

[David Yeh Jr.]

i think Tommy raised this company before.  I have not been follpwong since last time.  I am still not too sure abput the popularity of the concept

[David Yeh Jr.]

Tommy and Henry

Please structure our 2013 into a more productive year.   

Henry,  please present a plan on how to make 2013 a better and more productive year in terms of our research, data base, review and selection process.

We have been fortunate with two winners this years while the rest are fairly neutral.  We might have to review what are the ones that are being taken off, maintain and also new candidates.   We need to address how we should deploy leverage from now and also are there other asset classes that we can acquire for 2013.

In terms of big picture, we should review what are the potentials and the possible downside from today's economy.

Things have been smooth for last few months of 2012, things are not necessary this way for 2013.  Let's make this happen.  

Henry, you have yet to inform us about your developments and involvement.  Please also advise as well.

--
Communicate. Understand. Resolve. 

[Henry Chan]

Yes sure,

Let's meet and talk on the week of 7th, Jan

Sent from my iPhone

[David Yeh Jr.]

Let's take all the points and discuss .

We can have some preliminary ideas here for some brainstorm first

[Tommy Chen]

In view of changing political landscapes across the continents, i think 2013 signifies a new start for the world.

worldwide themes include

- after the "financial cliff", a more balanced US economy ahead? (while still debt financing...)

- china to be more politically clean from corruption? again more balanced and self-sustained growth (domestic investment / consumption trends still continues)

- south east asia still enjoys a uninterrupted growth trends ahead 

- japan / europe still so-so

one observation is that countries are heading more to self-sustained mode with both US and China heading this direction. That may lead to some interesting developments, e.g. local brands overtaking global brands in emerging markets. 

I think the current climate is comparable to 2004-05 the post crisis period, which was a narrow range trading range. In HK, some people even think it is comparable to 1990s after the crisis, high inflation, sustained GDP growth as a result of China's continuous 8% growth. With abundance of liquidity in Asia, I think the real party time is still ahead of us.

I still believe selecting a solid candidate with sustainable and growing business models is our key to success. With such candidate we can extend our leverage ratio (taking advantage of higher ROE than cost of capital). Big brand names in Asia running a profitable / sustainable business will be a very good choice in deploying capital.

In the post-crisis era, corporate governance is now being more spoken across management boards and investors. We should also pay attention to this area.

Let's add more points and we brainstorm.

[David Yeh]

Please post all candidates discussed last week and some new ideas that we think about for the past week.  At least please list on an excel and try to rank them with comments and score.   

Can we have this before Friday?

On Friday, March 2, 2012 1:21:33 AM UTC+8, Henry Chan wrote:

pls discuss ways to invest in stock market.

[Henry Chan]

Ok will do a summary by tomorrow

David Yeh於 2013年3月7日星期四UTC+8上午10時28分59秒寫道：