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Trevor Watkins

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Jan 6, 2025, 2:04:57 AMJan 6
to Individualist Movement
Apologies for reposting. I deleted the entire thread while trying to delete a single response.

Trevor Watkins .. cSASI
bas...@gmail.com - 083 44 11 721 - www.individualist.one



---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: mark.heaton via Individualist Movement <indivi...@googlegroups.com>
Date: Mon, 6 Jan 2025 at 08:07
Subject: RE: IM: My Predictions for 2025
To: <indivi...@googlegroups.com>


Ivo hates Donald Trump and clearly suffers from TDS (as I openly admit I do as well – but, unlike Ivo, I am very glad that Democrats got trounced in the election).

 

His X posts since the election clearly show that he believe Democrats would win – so was very wrong in his understanding of US politics and he has been writing extremely sore loser and bitchy posts.

 

He needs to suck it up and move on. His ego and credibility has been dented by this.

 

A lot of his other stuff remains pretty good though.

 

Mark

 

From: indivi...@googlegroups.com <indivi...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of Leon Louw
Sent: Sunday, 05 January 2025 20:41
To: indivi...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: IM: My Predictions for 2025

 

Yes, Ivo is excellent and insightful.

 

Do you have anything specific in mind?

 

On Sun, Jan 5, 2025 at 7:42PM Sid Nothard <sg...@mweb.co.za> wrote:

Making predictions is always difficult, particularly if they are about the future.

 

Does anybody read what Ivo writes?

 

Sid

 

From: indivi...@googlegroups.com [mailto:indivi...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Gabri Rigotti
Sent: Saturday, January 4, 2025 3:30 PM
To: indivi...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: IM: My Predictions for 2025

 

Nicely laid out ...

 

Ivo Vegter came in hard against predictions in the Daily Friend, in what I am now starting to see the pattern of his usual style ...

that is perhaps his formula for promoting speaker fees?

 

But generating plausible outcome scenarios is a rational exercise for any individual or group (small firms, medium firms, large firms etcetera)  ...

 

Contingency planning, and if not then what ... fly blindly?

 

The methodology is clear, and so too the framework/table that the "results" are delivered in ...

 

👍👍👍

 

 

 

On Sat, Jan 4, 2025 at 11:37AM Trevor Watkins <bas...@gmail.com> wrote:

Predictions for 2025

Predictions are easy. 

 

Using common sense:

1.    Understand the current reality 

2.    Understand the options

3.    Extend the current reality with the available options

4.    Make a prediction and allocate a probability

5.    Check against history

Geo Politics

Category

Current reality

Options

Prediction

Odds

Impact

History

USA

1 End of catastrophic Biden era

 

2 Trump incumbent

 

3 Divided country

 

4 Divided world

1 Peaceful transition

1 US Economy surges

90%

Stocks, bonds, jobs, salaries improve dramatically

Reagan, Clinton, Thatcher, Deng economic miracles following deregulation,

2 Chaos as state departments pruned

70%

FBI, CIA, etc employees go on strike. Refuse presidential directives. Trump invokes National Guard.

Strong bureaucratic resistance 

3 Media meltdown

90%

Minimal, nobody cares

Predictable

4 Ukraine, Russia, Iran, China rush to settle with Trump

60%

Ukraine war resolved, Revolution in Iran, Taiwan safe for  years

Churchill, Thatcher,

2 Violent transition

1 Widespread rioting as directives bite into state and department  funding

50%

Sanctuary cities refuse to assist ICE, or prosecute rioters. 45 million Americans did NOT vote for Trump.

BLM riots

3 Civil war

DEMagogue finally appears, starts campaign of civil disobedience. 

Militant cells of the Democratic party attack MAGA Republicans

50%

Widespread assassination attempts on state officials. Many terrorist incidents. Large scale chemical, viral or nuclear incidents

two prior attempts on Trump’s life. JFK, RFK assassinations, 9/11

Several states consider secession options

40%

Options for state secession actively explored

US civil war 1860-65

RSA

1 Services collapsed, transport, water, health, education, security, police, welfare

 

2 State financial situation critical

 

3 GNU teetering. Alternative unthinkable

 

4 Poor relationship with new Trump administration

1 High Road

1 GNU survives, sensible policies prevail

20%

GNU cabinet reorganised, deadwood removed.

 

BELA, NHI, EWC repealed/rejected.

 

BEE allowed to die

Mandela / Mbeki era

2 Attempts made to repair US relationship, revolutionary regime support toned down

30%

AGOA survives

 

Iran, Russia, China enraged

3 Investment friendly legislation passed

30%

Investment improves, inflation reduces, unemployment reduces

 

MK, EFF have a puppy - no one cares

Mandela / Mbeki era. Trevor Manuel policies

2 Middle road

GNU survives until June. 

No serious policy changes.

70%

Economic outlook remains critical

 

No change to inflation or unemployment, exchange rate declines

 

BELA, NHI, EWC remain, but no prospect of implementation

Last 5 years

No foreign policy changes,

 

US relationship deteriorates

70%

AGOA suspended in June. 

 

Trade deficit grows. 

 

Rand drops to R25/$

Zuma era

3 Low road

GNU collapses.

 

ANC splits. Left wing joins MK.

 

DA powerless

50%

Services deteriorate

 

Wealthy emigration skyrockets

 

Rand drops to R30/$

 

MK overtakes DA as official opposition

Zimbabwe

 

Mozambique

Widespread rioting over poverty

50%

State of emergency declared

KZN riots

Cape Secession gets widespread support

30%

Powerless DA refuses to budge on referendum

 

Local municipalities declare UDI

Last 5 years

Europe and the UK

1 In decline economically, socially, culturally

 

2 Rise of several right wing/libertarian political parties

 

3 Crackdown on civil liberties by left wing governments

 

4 State emphasis on unworkable policies such as woke, net zero, immigration

 

5 Huge regulatory burden on society

 

6 Precipitous European reproductive decline

1 Stagger on as before

When faced with a difficult choice most bureaucrats and politicians will choose the status quo

80%

No effective resolution to energy shortages, economic challenges, immigration.

 

Suppress discussion of issues by general public.

 

Attack right wing opponents

Recent EU history

2 Shift to the right

Reform UK, Italy’s Meloni, Germany’s AfD, France’s Marine le Pen, Hungary, Switzerland, Finland, Sweden, Serbia

50%

Rise of Republicans in US could lead to a groundswell of conservative European governments

Thatcher, Reagan

Abandoning of left wing policies

60%

Germany re-opens nuclear power stations, many countries restrict immigration, Sweden and Denmark begin repatriations, woke agendas ignored.

Thatcher, Reagan

3 EU breakup, European Common Market return

Obviously Brexit. 

Dexit, Frexit. Several other parties discussing it.

40%

Makes sense economically.

Brexit

4 Demographic decline

Biggest and least understood threat facing the West. 

90%

In 2 generations the state can no longer support the elderly. Workforce evaporates. European identity disappears

Most empires

China

1 In decline economically, socially, culturally

 

2 Precipitous Chinese reproductive decline

 

3 Massive influence on world economy

 

4 Serious threat to global  peace and prosperity, Taiwan, Belt and Road

 

5 Possible serious internal tensions

1 Maintain rigid economic and social control

Nothing will change until collapse is inevitable

90%

Who cares, as long as Tik-Tok and Temu keep delivering.

 

It is not clear if Chinese citizens are unhappy with this.

Berlin wall, 1989

2 Threaten Taiwan continuously

Purely for show, as logistics do not permit an invasion.
Trump makes an invasion even less likely.

99%

Just makes Xi Jin Ping look silly and toothless.

Cold war

3 Internal uprising in China

When the bread and circuses stop, rock throwing begins

60%

Catastrophic collapse for China, disruption on world markets, massive local Asian instability

Tiananmen square

Israel

1 Dominant power in the region

 

2 Backing of US

 

3 Subject to continuous threat from neighbours, who deny Israel right to exist

 

4 Unresolved issues around October 7th attack

 

5 Extermination not an option for either side

1 Maintain warlike footing indefinitely

Continue to harass Gaza, Lebanon, Syrian populations. 

60%

Limit to will and resources of Israel and its people.

Last 75 years

2 Actively seek peace. Replace Netanyahu.

Trump may assist in ME peace effort, conference, reconciliation.

60%

Widespread opposition from some Israeli groups, most Islam groups.

 

Improvement in economies for participating Arab states

Abraham accords, Oslo accords

3 Hold truth and reconciliation process regarding October 7th as counter to flawed ICJ process.

Netanyahu and other bad Israeli actors exposed.

50%

Israeli (and supporters) image severely tarnished.

 

Prosecution of Netanyahu and others. 

 

Arab rejoicing

South Africa 1990

4 Advance two  state solution

Arab states concede Israel right to exist, agree to compromise on provision of Arab lands for Palestinian state

25%

Glimmer of hope for ME peace.

Yugoslavia



Trevor Watkins .. cSASI
bas...@gmail.com - 083 44 11 721 - www.individualist.one

 

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Trevor Watkins

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Jan 6, 2025, 2:31:35 AMJan 6
to indivi...@googlegroups.com
Thanks Gabri.
Ivo certainly gets the clicks and comments when he bashes Trump and promotes his Covid fantasy. 

The only useful test of a theory/hypothesis/opinion is its predictive ability. The past is 20/20 vision.

Trevor Watkins .. cSASI
bas...@gmail.com - 083 44 11 721 - www.individualist.one


On Sat, 4 Jan 2025 at 15:30, Gabri Rigotti <rigo...@gmail.com> wrote:
Nicely laid out ...

Ivo Vegter came in hard against predictions in the Daily Friend, in what I am now starting to see the pattern of his usual style ...
that is perhaps his formula for promoting speaker fees?

But generating plausible outcome scenarios is a rational exercise for any individual or group (small firms, medium firms, large firms etcetera)  ...

Contingency planning, and if not then what ... fly blindly?

The methodology is clear, and so too the framework/table that the "results" are delivered in ...

👍👍👍



On Sat, Jan 4, 2025 at 11:37 AM Trevor Watkins <bas...@gmail.com> wrote:
Predictions for 2025

Predictions are easy. 


Using common sense:

  1. Understand the current reality 

  2. Understand the options

  1. Extend the current reality with the available options

  1. Make a prediction and allocate a probability

  2. Check against history


Virus-free.www.avg.com

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Trevor Watkins

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Jan 6, 2025, 2:36:52 AMJan 6
to indivi...@googlegroups.com
Funny I used "odds" because "Probability" wouldn't fit in the available width. I did debate whether the sum of my prediction odds should not exceed 100. Too much trouble.

Lets see how your predictions hold up in 4 years (or months). The advantage of this platform is that it persists and is easily searchable.

Yeah, the Dems are "mostly peaceful",  like their riots.

Trevor Watkins .. cSASI
bas...@gmail.com - 083 44 11 721 - www.individualist.one



On Sat, 4 Jan 2025 at 19:38, Mike Cross <mickin...@gmail.com> wrote:
Well thought out Trevor. Interesting that you used "odds" instead of your predicted mathematical probability. Allows greater than 100% total for the options.

Personally I think with regards to the USA, odds are more like 99% in favour of peaceful transition. "The more things change, the more they stay the same." Talk is one thing, but with the behemoth that is the USA economy, a Milei equivalent reform is not gonna happen in 4 years, despite best intentions.

WRT violent transition or civil war... The Dems are p***ies. Maybe not at party head level, but their supporters... 😂😂😂

Trevor Watkins

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Jan 6, 2025, 2:53:50 AMJan 6
to indivi...@googlegroups.com
International Liberty is a great blog worth visiting.
I agree that tariffs will probably be disastrous, but it would be hard to have policies worse than the Dems.

Trevor Watkins .. cSASI
bas...@gmail.com - 083 44 11 721 - www.individualist.one



On Sun, 5 Jan 2025 at 19:57, Dan Mitchell <mitc...@freedomandprosperity.org> wrote:
I don't know how many Americans are on this list, but don't make any predictions that assume Trump will fight for free markets and limited government.


On Sun, Jan 5, 2025 at 12:38 PM Sid Nothard <sg...@mweb.co.za> wrote:

Making predictions is always difficult, particularly if they are about the future.

 

Does anybody read what Ivo writes?

 

Sid

 

From: indivi...@googlegroups.com [mailto:indivi...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Gabri Rigotti
Sent: Saturday, January 4, 2025 3:30 PM
To: indivi...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: IM: My Predictions for 2025

 

Nicely laid out ...

 

Ivo Vegter came in hard against predictions in the Daily Friend, in what I am now starting to see the pattern of his usual style ...

that is perhaps his formula for promoting speaker fees?

 

But generating plausible outcome scenarios is a rational exercise for any individual or group (small firms, medium firms, large firms etcetera)  ...

 

Contingency planning, and if not then what ... fly blindly?

 

The methodology is clear, and so too the framework/table that the "results" are delivered in ...

 

👍👍👍

 

 

On Sat, Jan 4, 2025 at 11:37 AM Trevor Watkins <bas...@gmail.com> wrote:

Predictions for 2025

Predictions are easy. 

 

Using common sense:

1.    Understand the current reality 

2.    Understand the options

3.    Extend the current reality with the available options

4.    Make a prediction and allocate a probability

5.    Check against history

 

Image removed by sender.

Virus-free.www.avg.com

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--

" It is not the water in the fields that brings true development, rather, it is water in the eyes, or compassion for fellow beings, that brings about real development. "

—Anna Hazare

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Sid Nothard

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Jan 6, 2025, 3:05:01 AMJan 6
to indivi...@googlegroups.com

What is missing from the predictions is the collapse of fiat currencies and the introduction of CBDC’s

 

Sid

image001.jpg

Trevor Watkins

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Jan 6, 2025, 3:08:08 AMJan 6
to indivi...@googlegroups.com
The post was going to consist of several sub-categories in addition to geo-politics, including economics and social patterns. Watch this space.

Trevor Watkins .. cSASI
bas...@gmail.com - 083 44 11 721 - www.individualist.one


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