Fight or fold?
When speaking to a senior Rhodesian expatriate recently, he made the somewhat surprising point that he thought Ian Smith should have folded early on in the independence negotiations with England. This would have spared the lives of tens of thousands of young men, black and white sacrificed on the altar of old men’s egos. The final result, economic and social collapse of Zimbabwe, was inevitable if not predictable.
This quandary is particularly relevant in 2024 in 2 current warzones.
Ukraine is busy sacrificing the flower of its youth, and of many Russian youths, to achieve a meaningless and inevitable result, a bad compromise that suits no one. Should they have folded earlier? For many non-participant observers, this is heresy, liberal crazy-talk, unthinkable. How can you reward a monster like Putin with victory? How will you discourage him from greater atrocities in the future? Who cares how many Russians died?
The western powers, in the form of the clown-like Boris Johnson, sabotaged the Minsk accords where a settlement had been agreed to by both sides. As long as Russians were dying the US was in favour of continuing on, according to Anthony Blinken. Most of the arms supplied to Ukraine were built in pork barrel states in the USA, using borrowed funds. What’s not to like?
Israel is decimating the Palestinian population at the cost of its own young men. Like Ukraine, cease-fire is a dirty word, a concession to the forces of evil, unthinkable. Rational thought is suspended while there is a single surviving Hamas member, and a single surviving Israeli boy to shoot him. Old men play god from their well-protected bunkers, invoking old enmities to justify their obscene blood lusts. Israel has taken maybe 50,000 lives to avenge 2,000, a calculus they would never agree to if something important like money was involved. But Israel had a right and a duty to respond to the Hamas horror show, as if that was not always the intention of the horror.
Why do Arab and Israeli mothers give up their sons so easily? Why do Russian and Ukrainian fathers not do a better job of protecting their families? It is because they are sold the lie that there is no alternative. The sheep believe the wolves for the sake of an endless supply of mutton.
South Africa faced this dilemma in the 1990’s. A numerically small but well-armed and efficient white population faced a weak and disorganised black population 5 times larger. Apartheid guaranteed many grievances aching to be settled. South Africa was surrounded by hostile states, with the dreadful example of Zimbabwe demonstrating how any settlement might end. And yet 2 exemplary men saved us from an existential catastrophe. One decided to fold, the other decided not to fight. Although there were atrocities aplenty on both sides, their cooler heads prevailed. We decided not to spend our youth dividend on a bankrupt race war. We came to an accommodation with each other in just 4 years of jaw-jaw rather than war-war. We had an election, drew up a constitution and sat down in a universal suffrage parliament. We only need to look at Ukraine or Israel or Somalia or Sri Lanka to see what could have been.
There are probably 100,000 black and white boys alive today, building, breeding and investing, where there might have just been death and ruins.
Perhaps South Africa’s greatest contribution to the world is to provide an example of the alternative to war.
War is such an antiquated way to resolve differences. While the threat of wars, wars, atom bombs and anihalation of the species are always lurking in the background, diplomacy and talks should be thoroughly tested and tried. I must say I quite like this idea of taking out individuals rather than full scale military operations.
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