Re: IM: Re: My Predictions for 2025

[Trevor Watkins]

Comments in red below

Trevor Watkins .. cSASI
bas...@gmail.com - 083 44 11 721 - www.individualist.one

On Sat, 4 Jan 2025 at 13:24, Ernst Marais <ernst...@gmail.com> wrote:

Trevor, interesting. How did your 2024 predictions play out? I wrote the following article on my 2022 predictions some of which seemed quite good (for 2022)

•  Covid declines to endemic flu status
• Vaccine injury deaths exceed Covid deaths
• Ivermectin approved for worldwide use.
  
• US inflation exceeds 10%
• Biden declared medically unfit. Kamala Harris takes over as president.
  
• Republicans have majority in House and Senate after midterms
• Chinese growth rate Drops to below 3%
  
• Aliens Detected and confirmed. Breaking: James Webb telescope picks up alien signal from Andromeda
• Woke movement collapses.
  
• Global warming movement declines

In my experience in running a small business,  is that the most likely outcome of the future is to extrapolate the past.

Trends will continue except when disruptive events occurs or if there are specific plans backed by action to break out of the trend. My late friend James Harris accurately predicted the stock exchange movements for years - he said the market would either go up, or down, or stay the same.

I think the same hold true for countries, they just muddle through - except when a major disrupting event occur such as:

• Covid lock-down, representing the apex of the Nanny State
• Ukraine war - stopping Covid and major reversal for the Green movement.
• Musk buying Twitter, creating a powerful voice not beholden the the Traditional Media. 
• Gaza War - Ukraine War off the radar. Major dent in Israel's moral standing in the West
• Trump winning with Musk's endorsement. Pendulum swinging away from Wokeness.

My predictions:

• Like in the USA, there will be a swing to the right/ nationalism with parties like the AfD not so easily tarnished with the Nazi label
• With the Hawks no longer holding sway in the USA, the Ukraine War will come to a speedy end -- Europe still carry the scars of WWII and want to avert a  catastrophic replay
• Israel will not be able to goad the USA into a war with Iran
• With  Ramaphosa  at the helm, South Africa will continue its steady decline. Ineffective rumblings about a tax revolt
• The Sun will shine on most days and we will continue to make our lives enjoyable notwithstanding the Government's efforts to screw things up. 'n Boer maak 'n plan

Ernst

Op Saterdag 04 Januarie 2025 om 11:37:26 UTC+2 het Trevor Watkins geskryf:

Predictions for 2025

Predictions are easy. 

Using common sense:

1. Understand the current reality 

2. Understand the options

3. Extend the current reality with the available options

4. Make a prediction and allocate a probability

5. Check against history

Geo Politics

Category	Current reality	Options	Prediction	Odds	Impact	History
USA	1 End of catastrophic Biden era 2 Trump incumbent 3 Divided country 4 Divided world	1 Peaceful transition	1 US Economy surges	90%	Stocks, bonds, jobs, salaries improve dramatically	Reagan, Clinton, Thatcher, Deng economic miracles following deregulation,
			2 Chaos as state departments pruned	70%	FBI, CIA, etc employees go on strike. Refuse presidential directives. Trump invokes National Guard.	Strong bureaucratic resistance
			3 Media meltdown	90%	Minimal, nobody cares	Predictable
			4 Ukraine, Russia, Iran, China rush to settle with Trump	60%	Ukraine war resolved, Revolution in Iran, Taiwan safe for  years	Churchill, Thatcher,
		2 Violent transition	1 Widespread rioting as directives bite into state and department  funding	50%	Sanctuary cities refuse to assist ICE, or prosecute rioters. 45 million Americans did NOT vote for Trump.	BLM riots
		3 Civil war	DEMagogue finally appears, starts campaign of civil disobedience.  Militant cells of the Democratic party attack MAGA Republicans	50%	Widespread assassination attempts on state officials. Many terrorist incidents. Large scale chemical, viral or nuclear incidents	two prior attempts on Trump’s life. JFK, RFK assassinations, 9/11
			Several states consider secession options	40%	Options for state secession actively explored	US civil war 1860-65
RSA	1 Services collapsed, transport, water, health, education, security, police, welfare 2 State financial situation critical 3 GNU teetering. Alternative unthinkable 4 Poor relationship with new Trump administration	1 High Road	1 GNU survives, sensible policies prevail	20%	GNU cabinet reorganised, deadwood removed. BELA, NHI, EWC repealed/rejected. BEE allowed to die	Mandela / Mbeki era
			2 Attempts made to repair US relationship, revolutionary regime support toned down	30%	AGOA survives Iran, Russia, China enraged
			3 Investment friendly legislation passed	30%	Investment improves, inflation reduces, unemployment reduces MK, EFF have a puppy - no one cares	Mandela / Mbeki era. Trevor Manuel policies
		2 Middle road	GNU survives until June.  No serious policy changes.	70%	Economic outlook remains critical No change to inflation or unemployment, exchange rate declines BELA, NHI, EWC remain, but no prospect of implementation	Last 5 years
			No foreign policy changes, US relationship deteriorates	70%	AGOA suspended in June.  Trade deficit grows.  Rand drops to R25/$	Zuma era
		3 Low road	GNU collapses. ANC splits. Left wing joins MK. DA powerless	50%	Services deteriorate Wealthy emigration skyrockets Rand drops to R30/$ MK overtakes DA as official opposition	Zimbabwe Mozambique
			Widespread rioting over poverty	50%	State of emergency declared	KZN riots
			Cape Secession gets widespread support	30%	Powerless DA refuses to budge on referendum Local municipalities declare UDI	Last 5 years
Europe and the UK	1 In decline economically, socially, culturally 2 Rise of several right wing/libertarian political parties 3 Crackdown on civil liberties by left wing governments 4 State emphasis on unworkable policies such as woke, net zero, immigration 5 Huge regulatory burden on society 6 Precipitous European reproductive decline	1 Stagger on as before	When faced with a difficult choice most bureaucrats and politicians will choose the status quo	80%	No effective resolution to energy shortages, economic challenges, immigration. Suppress discussion of issues by general public. Attack right wing opponents	Recent EU history
		2 Shift to the right	Reform UK, Italy’s Meloni, Germany’s AfD, France’s Marine le Pen, Hungary, Switzerland, Finland, Sweden, Serbia	50%	Rise of Republicans in US could lead to a groundswell of conservative European governments	Thatcher, Reagan
			Abandoning of left wing policies	60%	Germany re-opens nuclear power stations, many countries restrict immigration, Sweden and Denmark begin repatriations, woke agendas ignored.	Thatcher, Reagan
		3 EU breakup, European Common Market return	Obviously Brexit.  Dexit, Frexit. Several other parties discussing it.	40%	Makes sense economically.	Brexit
		4 Demographic decline	Biggest and least understood threat facing the West.	90%	In 2 generations the state can no longer support the elderly. Workforce evaporates. European identity disappears	Most empires
China	1 In decline economically, socially, culturally 2 Precipitous Chinese reproductive decline 3 Massive influence on world economy 4 Serious threat to global  peace and prosperity, Taiwan, Belt and Road 5 Possible serious internal tensions	1 Maintain rigid economic and social control	Nothing will change until collapse is inevitable	90%	Who cares, as long as Tik-Tok and Temu keep delivering. It is not clear if Chinese citizens are unhappy with this.	Berlin wall, 1989
		2 Threaten Taiwan continuously	Purely for show, as logistics do not permit an invasion. Trump makes an invasion even less likely.	99%	Just makes Xi Jin Ping look silly and toothless.	Cold war
		3 Internal uprising in China	When the bread and circuses stop, rock throwing begins	60%	Catastrophic collapse for China, disruption on world markets, massive local Asian instability	Tiananmen square
Israel	1 Dominant power in the region 2 Backing of US 3 Subject to continuous threat from neighbours, who deny Israel right to exist 4 Unresolved issues around October 7th attack 5 Extermination not an option for either side	1 Maintain warlike footing indefinitely	Continue to harass Gaza, Lebanon, Syrian populations.	60%	Limit to will and resources of Israel and its people.	Last 75 years
		2 Actively seek peace. Replace Netanyahu.	Trump may assist in ME peace effort, conference, reconciliation.	60%	Widespread opposition from some Israeli groups, most Islam groups. Improvement in economies for participating Arab states	Abraham accords, Oslo accords
		3 Hold truth and reconciliation process regarding October 7th as counter to flawed ICJ process.	Netanyahu and other bad Israeli actors exposed.	50%	Israeli (and supporters) image severely tarnished. Prosecution of Netanyahu and others.  Arab rejoicing	South Africa 1990
		4 Advance two  state solution	Arab states concede Israel right to exist, agree to compromise on provision of Arab lands for Palestinian state	25%	Glimmer of hope for ME peace.	Yugoslavia

Trevor Watkins .. cSASI
bas...@gmail.com - 083 44 11 721 - www.individualist.one

Virus-free.www.avg.com

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Individualist Movement" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to individualis...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion, visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/individualist/e019893d-f3ee-4f23-b12f-c35784644545n%40googlegroups.com.