INDO-CHINESE conundrum!
yashas nataraj
More INDIANS see the ASIAN century as a COLLABORATION between INDIA
and CHINA than the Chinese! More Chinese see the ASIAN century as the
COMING of AGE of CHINA by way of a re-capture by CHINA of its
erstwhile position than INDIANS! In their present world-view(which of
course might change), INDIA comes through MORE as a COMPETITOR rather
than as a COLLABORATOR. EXPRESSIONS of such a PERCEPTION are evident
in that they see PAKISTAN as an INHIBITORY FORCE vis-a-vis INDIA and
use it to this effect, the STRING of PEARLS around INDIA, the venture
into the INDIAN OCEAN etc!
What can INDIA do to change this APPARENT DISCONNECT is the issue for
INDIA? - Can this be done through conciliation, dialogue,
"CAPITULATION to CHINESE designs" or via an EXPRESSION of STRENGTH?
Is Asian resurgence a possibility? Is it already happening? Which are
the factors causing Asian resurgence? Who are the players
contributing?
Would the Asian resurgence be seen as antithetical to the West's interests?
To what extent is India a contributor to this ascendancy?
Can China alone fuel this resurgence?
MAIN ISSUES:
1. PERCEPTIONAL: China sees India as a hand-maiden of the US in order
to constrict China! India DOES NOT see China to be as much of a RIVAL
than a REGIONAL HEGEMON attempting to undercut INDIA's Growing
stature!
2. INTERNATIONAL RIVERS - mainly the Brahmaputra(Ganga is born IN
INDIA)! INDUS etc are born in the TIBETAN PLATEAU(the vicinities of
the MANASAROVAR and RAKSHASTAL LAKE)..but, they flow to PAKISTAN and
INDIA is in between which reduces the STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE of these
rivers for China vis-a-vis INDIA! Even wrt the Brahmaputra, only the
North-East would be parched.....mainly BANGLADESH is going to get
PARCHED..not INDIA! ANyway, Not much Agriculture happens in the
North-East! N-East INSURGENCY could be TURNED AGAINST the CHINESE
then! (FOR REASONS UNKNOWN, INDIA has NOT
INTERNATIONALIZED this ISSUE in contrast to Pakistan which does so
vis-a-vis the INDUS TREATY at the drop of a hat and also given INDIA's
"PHONEY"notion of the UN being an INDEPENDENT body and able to usher
in peace)
IDEAL INDO-CHINESE relationship:
1.Joint admininstration of the Rivers of the Tibetan-Plateau
2.Mutual Benefit in trade - China sourcing its overseas trade from the
Indian Ocean Region via
India through Tibet-Ladakh-Arunachal-Nepal - Economies of Scale -
Lower Cost, Deal with 1/2 Govts , Benefits the region and India as a
conduit to South-East Asia via Myanmar(This culd be unpalatable to
China)- This can only happen with a high degree of trust!
3. Joint patrol of the Indian Ocean Region
4. India forgets the 1962 Events and China retracts from its
Belligerent posture - An
"ASSYMETRIC" CHICKEN and EGG Problem!
5. Russia and the US should also be MADE part of the EXTENDED FAMILY
so that they DO NOT FISH in troubled waters.(Almost Impossible)
6. INDIA's Software and CHINESE HARDWARE are mutually complementary!
There are many other complementary capacities which could be a greater
force if COMBINED!
7. An "MODERATED" exchange of Chinese efficiency and Indian patience
between each other wuld be beneficial to both!!
Is this feasible? NO, should be obvious at this point in time .....It
is also a NO in the foreseeable future! It is clear as on today..that
in the CHINESE PSYCHE...the COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS seems SKEWED more
towards COMPETITION and CONFRONTATION as against CO-OPERATION
utilising each other's CORE COMPETENCIES and a CHANGE in this
POSITION(even if China wants to) seems VERY DIFFICULT as China sees
INDIA having moved far forward into the US EMBRACE which would prevent
it initiating an offer!
In the INDIAN PSYCHE lurks the events of 1962 and INDIA
wily-nily is FORCED into a US embrace by the actions of the Chinese!
STRIKING the RIGHT BALANCE between CHINA,RUSSIA and the US - would be
the MAIN FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGE for INDIA. There is a MIXED HISTORY
of STRATEGIC FRIENDSHIP and ALIENATION between ANY TWO COMBINATION of
NATIONS of the aforementioned SET - Some NATIONS take into account
this HISTORY while planning for the present and Future - especially
INDIA! The erstwhile SUPERPOWERS wuld NOT carry
this BAGGAGE - SUPERPOWERS usually DO NOT - they are highly REAL(its a
GAME for them) in their mindset EXCEPT BETWEEN THEMSELVES(US-Russian
relations are still fractured)!
INDIA has to understand that in Foreign Policy,
ITS not MARRIAGES, but,
MOSTLY LIVE-INS!
Given China's belligerent attitude towards India and the fact that
India CANNOT on its OWN tackle China naturally pushes India towards
the US which also is in the look-out for regional allies, given the
Economy back home, to ensure Asian balance of power and
multi-polarity!
DIFFERENCES between now and during the COLD-WAR era: Though INDIA and
the US were Democracies, they were STRATEGICALLY apart. China and the
US were closer that India and the US. The US used China against
Russia! Russia was actually NOT a Security Insurer for India as is
narrated! - Hence, China could have been aggressive then - NOT NOW!
Difficult for India to sail on 2 boats keeping both immune from the
effects of the other - India
will not be able to convince China that its relationship with the US
is not targetted at the US
and Conversely, any move by India vis-a-vis China should NOT leave any
scope for misgivings by the US! India has to choose one side -
Non-Alignment between the US and CHINA wuld be a farce!
India has moved far from any possibility of a Strategic relationship
with China - The US and
India have an annual Strategic dialogue, the first ever
Indo-US-Japanese trilateral took place in December 2011, India is
forging a Indo-pacific consortium with Australia(AUS has a significant
Chinese population) etc
The only factor India has to consider is the Russian-Chinese dynamic
and the balance between Russia and the US - The Cold War was JUST
temporarily OVER..Now, With Russian economy looking green, one cannot
rule out a Russian-Chinese tango Vs the US which wuld suck INDIA in
wily-nily!
Who is a Strategic Partner? - Apart from having Strategic convergence
in FP imperatives and all SUCH DIRECT INTERCOURSE and
NON-CONFRONTATION......one of the core tenets is about INDIRECT
EMPATHY i.e the "Partner is able to understand IMPLICITLY and condone
any statement or move made by the other partner which is SEEMINGLY
overtly antagonistic to the former - being able to comprehend the
other's constraints in making such a move" - In case of Indo-China,
forget this indirect empathy - there is DIRECT CONNFRONTATION!
Hence, unfortunately, India has been forced to participate in
groupings with an adversarial posture towards China - China has missed
the BUS! Any move NOW UNILATERALY by India to get closer to China
would LEAVE INDIA in the lurch with the US deserting India giving
China the opportunity to squeeze India - A marooned Catch-22
situation! India CANNOT recant now on the US front - it can recant
later 10-20 yrs down the line once it becomes powerful!
China is NOT AGGRESSIVE to mend its relations with INDIA either -
Hence, an Asian partnership is a long pole and a long hop! The US has
also invested too much in the Indian relationship - Indo-Japanese,
Indo-Australian etc surely have been catalysed by the US!
In this triangle, India cannot hide the transactions over the
Indo-Chinese connection from the
Indo-US/China-US link!