Modeling Pakistan!
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yashas nataraj
Dec 12, 2011, 3:50:50 AM12/12/11
to parag Khairnar, Sushruth Donthi, Rajat Talak, karthik.a...@gmail.com, rahul meshram, Sachin Bhardwaj, Salil Kashyap, sainath bharadwaj, parthajit mohapatra, Sreenivasa Murthy, K V Krishna Chaythanya, mukesh kundal, iisc_pp, Ponnanna Uthappa, Srinath Narasimha, Sunil G.R., vishwanath c, Chetan Ganjihal, Ajit Phadnis, Padmanabha Venkatagiri, Sriganesh Srihari, Harish Katti, aditya Jr, Yogendra IISc
India would not be bothered if Pakistan was situated somewhere near
the North Pole….great if it could have been possible…..India should
hope for long term Continental Drift to get short term!!
Unfortunately, Pak is India’s neighbor and hence India needs to waste
its precious CPU cycles in formulating a coherent response to this
nightmare of a country!
FACTS abt Pak:
Pakistan is geographically plced in a STRATEGICALLY FAVOURABLE area -
It connects India with Central Asia as also China with Central Asia -
The Ancient Silk Route by Land! Today, with Sea trade, Pak can
connect its ports to China and then South-East Asia via China - Hence,
it is important to China! If peace is built between India and Pak
there is a lot to gain for India too..But, this does not mean
capitulation by India to sue for peace!! Hence, it is STRATEGICALLY
IMPORTANT for INDIA to KEEP PAK ON THE BOIL INTERNALLY UNTIL INDO-PAK
peace becomes a reality! If not, India wuld tend to lose in
competition with CHINA which wuld ensure an efficient utlization of
Pak's resources with benefit to both Pak and China!!
There are sections within the Pak Army etc
which want an END to Terrorism but, who are also either stridently
anti-Indian OR do NOT countenance Indian involvement in Pakistan to
end terror - India should identify such sections and work in concert
with them which wuld require a great degree of "Allaying their
Fears". But, their fears wuld NOT be allayed by any Economic overtures
but, by Strategic overtures!!
FOR INDIA, tackling PAK is akin to EXORCISING a GHOST....The
PaK BODY has been possessed by JIHADI and WAHABI ISLAM spread by
SAUDI ARABIA.....If you have to fight the GHOST, you also have to
fight the POSSESSED BODY and MIND!! A DAY will come when similar to
the blowback that Pak is facing from Terror, SAUDI ARABIA and other
OIL-RICH Gulf countries would also face a severe blowback which wuld
break the BACKBONE of ARABIC ISLAM! One possible timeline could be
2050 when it is expected that the MIDDLE-EAST WOULD RUN OUT OF OIL -
Hence, the MIDDLE-EAST wuld be in the LOOKOUT for other STRATEGIC
HANDLES to LEAN ON apart FROM OIL!!
One thing is certain, Pak wuld be desperatley in search of alternate
cards once the US recedes from the Af-Pak horizons as China does not
seem so eager to replace the US in Af-Pak(Infact, the Chinese may be
wary of the Pakis after having watched what the Pakis have done to
their monetary and Military benefactors - the US)!
As time progresses, Pak wuld lose its significance vis-a-vis
China as an anti-India card..it wuld have to project a positive force
field if it has to stay in play - For Eg as a Supply route of oil etc
to the rest of Asia, as the hub of trade etc.
But, w.r.t India...India will have to deflate the ascendancy
of Pakistan unless Indo-Pak relations are repaired ELSE India wuld
lose out to the strategic alliance between China-Pak (Now, may be
Russia also)and subsequently Pak-China-ASEAN etc which wuld erode
Indian influence! China is wary of a greater committment in Pakistan
PRIMARILY DUE to the DISTURBING SECURITY SCENARIO in the Af-Pak
region. If INDIA can maintain this DISTURBING SCENARIO upto a
THRESHOLD TO THE EXTENT THAT it DOES not AFFECT INDIA a GREAT DEAL and
also wuld DETER CHINA from MOVING AHEAD in PAK, India's strategic
interests wuld remain in GOOD HEALTH!!
============================================================
PAKISTANI PSYCHE is possessed by:
1. A FALSE CONSCIOUSNESS that they are legitimate heirs of Mughals
which has to be ushered back in the 21st century- irredentism! This
is further fueled by the PARTIAL HISTORY taught in Pakistan wherein
their HISTORY starts from 712 AD - the capture of SINDH..all previous
references are BLACKED OUT! In India, similar things have been done
by MARXIST HISTORIANS to keep INDIANS in the dark over many atrocities
committed citing the reason that it wuld jeopardize the PRESENT!
2. To compete with India at all levels and DRAW EQUAL - The Australian
uranium declaration vis-a-vis India and the subsequent Pakistani
ranting for a SIMILAR AGREEMENT is a case in point, Salman taseer's
comment on PSLV-D3 failure also as reminisced by his SON aatish Taseer
“WHY MY FATHER HATED INDIA” -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304911104576445862242908294.html
. A corollary is that Pak wuld not be able to bear India going out of
its reach and wuld devise whatever possible strategies to pull India
down! This cannot be offset by any overture by India including
opening up its market for Pakistani goods as it is a reality that
INDIA will on any day be a multiple of Pak - The only solution is for
Pak to reconcile to this fact!
3. Continuing from point 2....pak has evolved Terrorism as a State
Policy to further its containment of India - This is a combination of
2 elements: a. A subterranean RELIGIOUS JIHADI mindset to eliminate
anything which is "NOT ISLAMIC" b. A State structure(ISI) which makes
use of this MINDSET to target India and also attempts to perpetuate
this mindset - Here, the State Structure necessarily does NOT have any
religious leanings per se - it just utilises this MINDSET!
4. The RULING ESTABLISHMENT has consistently LIED to the Pakistanis
and KEPT them under a cloud/ miasma........Their main weapon has been
MOBILISING PEOPLE against external entities whenever anybody points a
finger against Pakistani terror.........EG: Many Pakistanis still
think that they WON the KARGIL WAR and it was triggered by INDIA etc.
They have been TURNED into ZOMBIES!
5. The HATE LITERATURE spread EVEN in GOVT schools against HINDUISM
and in effect INDIA - main breeding ground of the HATE MINDSET!
Yes, Pakistan is undertaking a tight-rope walk as some sections wuld
want to eliminate terror but, do NOT want to be pushed to a state of
fighting on multiple fronts...This wuld require India to be more
patient..patience is at a premium though!
==============================================================
Elimination of Terror involves 2 aspects:
1. Elimination of the leaders(ideologues) and the foot soldiers
2. Elimination of the MINDSET which is much more difficult as THOUGHTS
OUTLIVE LIFE which wuld take more time and a much more formidable
undertaking which involves issues beyond the Pakistani borders – SAUDi
ARABIA and the Middle-East – This is constrained by the DEPENDENCE on
OIL!
3. Either Pak should Act against the terror groups OR allow capable
external Agencies to Act - it cannot have both ways of Not acting and
also preventing External forces to Act under the garb of National
Sovereignity!! NATIONAL SOVEREIGNITY WILL HAVE to BE VIOLATED when
the NATION itself WANTS to PROMOTE TERROR!!
4. Creation of stakeholders "WITHIN" Pakistan who would fight
TERRORISM and who wuld stand to lose as much due to terror as India.
Long term solutions:
For India, some short term losses for Long term gains - Do Dr Singh's
overtures fall into this paradigm?
CORE issues within pak:
a. Religious extremism spread via TEXTBOOKS and MADRASAS - If
India "WANTS TO DO SOMETHING" to stablilise Pak, India has to find a
way to stanch this spread - Unfortunately today, the only way to
create stakeholders within Pakistan against Madrasas seems to be "to
create threats to Pakistan from these Madrasas themselves and NOT by
any Economic overtures"! Pakistan WILL NEVER do this or is UNABLE to
DO THIS...So, the question is WHAT CAN INDIA do to make PAKISTAN do
this can INDIA bypass the Pak GOVT and do something on its own!
b. There is of course a peace constituency in Pak which is
ready to base the relationship between India and Pak on shared
Economic and Social prosperity....But, the membership of this
constituency is sparse!
===============================================================
RELATED SCENARIO CONSTRUCTIONS:
a. BALKANISATION of PAK: Feasible, Desirable?
If INDIA needs an alternative "Land route" to Central Asia, It can be:
1. Via A portion of Sindh and Balochistan –> Iran
2. Via Gilgit-Baltistan and Afghanistan - >Iran Sea
route - india is building a port in Iran - Chahabar!
PREMISE: Iran’s attitude hopefully should be flexible
..hence, malleable vis-à-vis India!
the North Pole….great if it could have been possible…..India should
hope for long term Continental Drift to get short term!!
Unfortunately, Pak is India’s neighbor and hence India needs to waste
its precious CPU cycles in formulating a coherent response to this
nightmare of a country!
FACTS abt Pak:
Pakistan is geographically plced in a STRATEGICALLY FAVOURABLE area -
It connects India with Central Asia as also China with Central Asia -
The Ancient Silk Route by Land! Today, with Sea trade, Pak can
connect its ports to China and then South-East Asia via China - Hence,
it is important to China! If peace is built between India and Pak
there is a lot to gain for India too..But, this does not mean
capitulation by India to sue for peace!! Hence, it is STRATEGICALLY
IMPORTANT for INDIA to KEEP PAK ON THE BOIL INTERNALLY UNTIL INDO-PAK
peace becomes a reality! If not, India wuld tend to lose in
competition with CHINA which wuld ensure an efficient utlization of
Pak's resources with benefit to both Pak and China!!
There are sections within the Pak Army etc
which want an END to Terrorism but, who are also either stridently
anti-Indian OR do NOT countenance Indian involvement in Pakistan to
end terror - India should identify such sections and work in concert
with them which wuld require a great degree of "Allaying their
Fears". But, their fears wuld NOT be allayed by any Economic overtures
but, by Strategic overtures!!
FOR INDIA, tackling PAK is akin to EXORCISING a GHOST....The
PaK BODY has been possessed by JIHADI and WAHABI ISLAM spread by
SAUDI ARABIA.....If you have to fight the GHOST, you also have to
fight the POSSESSED BODY and MIND!! A DAY will come when similar to
the blowback that Pak is facing from Terror, SAUDI ARABIA and other
OIL-RICH Gulf countries would also face a severe blowback which wuld
break the BACKBONE of ARABIC ISLAM! One possible timeline could be
2050 when it is expected that the MIDDLE-EAST WOULD RUN OUT OF OIL -
Hence, the MIDDLE-EAST wuld be in the LOOKOUT for other STRATEGIC
HANDLES to LEAN ON apart FROM OIL!!
One thing is certain, Pak wuld be desperatley in search of alternate
cards once the US recedes from the Af-Pak horizons as China does not
seem so eager to replace the US in Af-Pak(Infact, the Chinese may be
wary of the Pakis after having watched what the Pakis have done to
their monetary and Military benefactors - the US)!
As time progresses, Pak wuld lose its significance vis-a-vis
China as an anti-India card..it wuld have to project a positive force
field if it has to stay in play - For Eg as a Supply route of oil etc
to the rest of Asia, as the hub of trade etc.
But, w.r.t India...India will have to deflate the ascendancy
of Pakistan unless Indo-Pak relations are repaired ELSE India wuld
lose out to the strategic alliance between China-Pak (Now, may be
Russia also)and subsequently Pak-China-ASEAN etc which wuld erode
Indian influence! China is wary of a greater committment in Pakistan
PRIMARILY DUE to the DISTURBING SECURITY SCENARIO in the Af-Pak
region. If INDIA can maintain this DISTURBING SCENARIO upto a
THRESHOLD TO THE EXTENT THAT it DOES not AFFECT INDIA a GREAT DEAL and
also wuld DETER CHINA from MOVING AHEAD in PAK, India's strategic
interests wuld remain in GOOD HEALTH!!
============================================================
PAKISTANI PSYCHE is possessed by:
1. A FALSE CONSCIOUSNESS that they are legitimate heirs of Mughals
which has to be ushered back in the 21st century- irredentism! This
is further fueled by the PARTIAL HISTORY taught in Pakistan wherein
their HISTORY starts from 712 AD - the capture of SINDH..all previous
references are BLACKED OUT! In India, similar things have been done
by MARXIST HISTORIANS to keep INDIANS in the dark over many atrocities
committed citing the reason that it wuld jeopardize the PRESENT!
2. To compete with India at all levels and DRAW EQUAL - The Australian
uranium declaration vis-a-vis India and the subsequent Pakistani
ranting for a SIMILAR AGREEMENT is a case in point, Salman taseer's
comment on PSLV-D3 failure also as reminisced by his SON aatish Taseer
“WHY MY FATHER HATED INDIA” -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304911104576445862242908294.html
. A corollary is that Pak wuld not be able to bear India going out of
its reach and wuld devise whatever possible strategies to pull India
down! This cannot be offset by any overture by India including
opening up its market for Pakistani goods as it is a reality that
INDIA will on any day be a multiple of Pak - The only solution is for
Pak to reconcile to this fact!
3. Continuing from point 2....pak has evolved Terrorism as a State
Policy to further its containment of India - This is a combination of
2 elements: a. A subterranean RELIGIOUS JIHADI mindset to eliminate
anything which is "NOT ISLAMIC" b. A State structure(ISI) which makes
use of this MINDSET to target India and also attempts to perpetuate
this mindset - Here, the State Structure necessarily does NOT have any
religious leanings per se - it just utilises this MINDSET!
4. The RULING ESTABLISHMENT has consistently LIED to the Pakistanis
and KEPT them under a cloud/ miasma........Their main weapon has been
MOBILISING PEOPLE against external entities whenever anybody points a
finger against Pakistani terror.........EG: Many Pakistanis still
think that they WON the KARGIL WAR and it was triggered by INDIA etc.
They have been TURNED into ZOMBIES!
5. The HATE LITERATURE spread EVEN in GOVT schools against HINDUISM
and in effect INDIA - main breeding ground of the HATE MINDSET!
Yes, Pakistan is undertaking a tight-rope walk as some sections wuld
want to eliminate terror but, do NOT want to be pushed to a state of
fighting on multiple fronts...This wuld require India to be more
patient..patience is at a premium though!
==============================================================
Elimination of Terror involves 2 aspects:
1. Elimination of the leaders(ideologues) and the foot soldiers
2. Elimination of the MINDSET which is much more difficult as THOUGHTS
OUTLIVE LIFE which wuld take more time and a much more formidable
undertaking which involves issues beyond the Pakistani borders – SAUDi
ARABIA and the Middle-East – This is constrained by the DEPENDENCE on
OIL!
3. Either Pak should Act against the terror groups OR allow capable
external Agencies to Act - it cannot have both ways of Not acting and
also preventing External forces to Act under the garb of National
Sovereignity!! NATIONAL SOVEREIGNITY WILL HAVE to BE VIOLATED when
the NATION itself WANTS to PROMOTE TERROR!!
4. Creation of stakeholders "WITHIN" Pakistan who would fight
TERRORISM and who wuld stand to lose as much due to terror as India.
Long term solutions:
For India, some short term losses for Long term gains - Do Dr Singh's
overtures fall into this paradigm?
CORE issues within pak:
a. Religious extremism spread via TEXTBOOKS and MADRASAS - If
India "WANTS TO DO SOMETHING" to stablilise Pak, India has to find a
way to stanch this spread - Unfortunately today, the only way to
create stakeholders within Pakistan against Madrasas seems to be "to
create threats to Pakistan from these Madrasas themselves and NOT by
any Economic overtures"! Pakistan WILL NEVER do this or is UNABLE to
DO THIS...So, the question is WHAT CAN INDIA do to make PAKISTAN do
this can INDIA bypass the Pak GOVT and do something on its own!
b. There is of course a peace constituency in Pak which is
ready to base the relationship between India and Pak on shared
Economic and Social prosperity....But, the membership of this
constituency is sparse!
===============================================================
RELATED SCENARIO CONSTRUCTIONS:
a. BALKANISATION of PAK: Feasible, Desirable?
If INDIA needs an alternative "Land route" to Central Asia, It can be:
1. Via A portion of Sindh and Balochistan –> Iran
2. Via Gilgit-Baltistan and Afghanistan - >Iran Sea
route - india is building a port in Iran - Chahabar!
PREMISE: Iran’s attitude hopefully should be flexible
..hence, malleable vis-à-vis India!
b. SOUTH ASIA IDENTITY: Wuld CHINA want a SOUTH ASIAN IDENTITY to get
FORGED? Is it possible to rope in(create stakes) China as a
stakeholder in this regard? Wuld Russia and the US also countenance
such a Union? - In my opinion, the only way China could be made
to see some reason (again unfortunately) is only via fomenting
TERRORISM in Xinjiang FROM PAKISTAN!!
c. Can INDIA not develop and grow without Pakistan as is bandied
about by many INDIAN apologists for Pakistan?
=============================================================================
TERRORISM is NOT ONLY a STRATEGIC STRENGTH of Pakistan..But, it can
also be transformed into ITS WEAKNESS when TURNED INWARD - INDIA will
have to turn this inward vis-a-vis Pak! it is very similar to MNREGA
and other policy prescriptions - NO POINT in pouring in MONEY to a
BLACK HOLE without REFORMING the STRUCTURES of DELIVERY! Similarly,
to EXPECT ECONOMIC overtures to PREVENT the SPREAD of Anti-India
feelings via both the STATE and NON-STATE MADRASA STRUCTURES which
DELIVER "HATRED" wuld NOT possibly WORK!!
How to direct/funnel AID to Pak so that it is used only OR to a great
extent towards stanching the spread of Madrasas etc as the
STRUCTURES(STATE structures) which deliver Services to people are the
SAME which DELIVER HATERD and RADICAL ISLAM!!
PLEASE LOOK at the following:
Youtube debates - Hasan Nisar, Nusrat Javed, Naji etc -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=aEIBCTODIfY
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