Forget Investments and Employment Generation - Just focus on Survival in Retail Convention 2009

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As the Indian retail gurus and management whiz kids, who tried
desperately to drum up support in favour of the spurious investment
and jobs creation potential in India, of the centralized retail sector
based on predatory foreign investments, still keep talking of
consolidation mantra and the need to open up the retail sector, find
themselves twisting on their own logic - the retail sector conventions
are rethinking whether they should rename their annual retail
conventions as Innovation Courses or rather as Survival Courses in
Retail.
Here is a Reuters article on the so called Western expertise in
retailing falling flat on its nose :
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE5084PO20090109

By Martinne Geller

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Several months ago the National Retail Federation
(NRF) chose "Inspiration" as a theme for its 2009 annual convention,
to be held next week in New York. But now it seems "Survival" might
have been a better choice.

As U.S. consumers grapple with a year-long slump, rising unemployment
and falling home values, the retail industry is struggling to attract
shoppers and preserve profits.

Major retailers, from Wal-Mart Stores Inc to Macy's Inc, have cut
their profit forecasts, trimmed staff or shuttered stores. Some, like
Circuit City Stores Inc, have sought bankruptcy protection, and many
more are seen as vulnerable this year.

The economy is "probably going to be the No. 1, 2 and 3 issue" at the
convention, Tracy Mullin, the trade group's chief executive, said in
an interview. "That's all anybody's going to be talking about, I
guarantee you."

The retail industry's biggest trade show normally attracts several
thousand retailers as well as vendors that sell them services like
computing, staffing, consulting and security.

Citing the current climate, Mullin said fewer guests are paying full
price to join the discussions and more seek only the free pass to the
expo floor.

"We think we may be down slightly, but not by much," Mullin said of
attendance, noting a desire of retailers to commiserate. "They like to
share experiences and find out if there are actually people doing
worse than they are."

The NRF will release its final 2008 sales figures and summary of the
holiday season on Wednesday, but it will not issue a forecast for the
current year at the show, as it usually does.

A spokesman said the convention falls a week earlier this year, and
with the U.S. government issuing its December sales data on the last
day of the show, there is not enough time.

"In this economy, we feel it is essential to have a better
understanding of holiday performance before finalizing our 2009
economic forecast," an NRF spokeswoman said in an email, adding that
the forecast will come out later this month.

The International Council of Shopping Centers, another trade group,
said the 2008 holiday season showed the first decline in sales since
it began tracking data in 1970. The NRF had forecast a rise of 2.2
percent in holiday sales in November.

LIFE SUPPORT

Howard Davidowitz, chairman of retail consultancy Howard Davidowitz &
Assoc., said chain stores are now in survival mode. "You've got all
these retailers on the cusp of bankruptcy. You've got hundreds of
thousands of stores that could close. You've got shopping centers in
collapse. You've got suppliers going out of business," Davidowitz
said. "Retailing is on life support."

Analysts fear things will worsen before they improve, and investors
have questioned whether the sector has hit bottom, with shares tracked
by the Standard & Poor's Retail Index down 23 percent in the last 12
months.
"We continue to anticipate worsening trends in January now that gift-
giving is over and maintain our cautious view on the group," said UBS
retail analyst Roxanne Meyer in a research note on Friday.

Consumers have also grown accustomed to the steep discounts offered
during the just-completed holiday season and may balk at paying full
price in the future, which could force retailers to have to mark down
even new merchandise.

"We are seeing a lot of deflationary pressure in the economy right
now, and that means consumers are going to expect declining prices,"
said Ira Kalish, director of global economics at Deloitte Research and
a presenter at the NRF convention. "It's not going to be a highly
profitable environment for retailers regardless of what happens."