The Political Blame Game

[bombshell]

Written March 31, 2008


Political Blame Game:


Partiality politics is apparently the stratagem policy of the
opposition Antigua Labour Party (ALP), cooperating with partisan
motivation in regard to Kairi Consultants Limited (KAIRI) Antigua
Poverty Report 2007.


For ALP to assign culpability is to play the blame game, since
politics is rooted in prejudice and the foremost tactic in covert
propaganda.


Furthermore, the disadvantages of such an approach are clearly
visible : Critically condemn the United Progressive Party (UPP)
government and oppose the truth.


Firstly, the Kairi Poverty Report 2007 in association with the
National Assessment Team (NAT) of Antigua is the first inclusive
verifiable and balanced report since PAHO 1994 "analysis" versus ALPs
intentional misinformation and blurred interpretation.


UPP Programme of Action:


Information is critical in any meaningful development process; and
reliable official statistics did not exist under the former ALP
administration.


Formerly, notable organizations excerpt data from the PAHO study,
owing to inadequacy of information and shortcoming of facts connected
with statistical resources.


Consequently UPP election victory in 2004 was the catalyst for overall
change and the long overdue sanctioned Caribbean Development Bank
(CDB) Antigua Poverty Report concerning : "[A] coherent programme of
action" integral in future planning ,an UPPs understandable
development to organize a Ministry of Social Transformation to uphold
the programme.


Political rights and Social opportunities:


An UPPs victory created a new political trust, emphasis on a
progressive future, rebuilding the country, people first , to be
governed under democratic dispensation.


In opposition to oppression under the former ALP government, ALPs
democracy deficit ranking from 1994 to 1999 was 4.3 partially free
(PF) and 2000-2003 4.2PF [1]


The former government was hostile to democratic values; in contrast to
UPP ascendancy to power in 2004, the ranking considerably improved to
2. All free countries are ranked: free 1-2.5


According to Freedom House Report, Antigua was once again ranked among
democratic countries of the world!


Political and civil liberties were free and with a new democracy,
voices were heard; and better governance promoted.


The Impact of the Crisis and Social Programme:


In contrast to the programme of action is Antigua and Barbuda
insolvent economy and poverty dilemma, both represent a critical
juncture for the Antigua and Barbuda government, after decades of ALP
neglect.


UPP election win should not be viewed simply as a political victory,
but a revolution for change, constructive development and long term
planning.


In spite of Antigua and Barbuda financial chaos, the Kari report
compliment the Antigua and Barbuda government pro-active effort and
dynamism as regards social programme that benefit the people:


"The government has undertaken a number of measure that are pro-poor
and which seeks to manage the impact of the crisis"


The impact of that crisis was noted in an earlier PAHOA/CEFNI 1997
Report : 49.4% of children 1-4 years suffering from iron an iodine
deficiency; the realization of UPPs National School Meal Programme
(NSMP) supplemented their nutritional deficiencies.


The Legacy of Poor Development:


According to the Kari report, as a result of ALPs mismanagement of
public funds, social programs suffered and creative management was
essential to tackle the country's fiscal problem and the legacy of
poor development:


"Initiative to reduce and alleviate poverty in Antigua and Barbuda
have had to be managed against the backdrop of a major fiscal crisis
in the public finances. The country is one of the most heavily
indebted in the developing world"


That fiscal difficulty was reflected in the PAHOA study in 1994, 12 %
of the population was living below the poverty line; and that poverty
figure was continuously repeated by the World Bank (WB) and others:
The WB Report May 15, 2002, Report No: 24159-LAC, poverty headcount
estimates were behind the times, as published on page 3:


"With the exception of Antigua which has a realitvely low poverty
headcount of around 12 percent.."


But, a report by the UNDP 'Analysis of the Investment Process in
Health and the Environment in Antigua and Barbuda 1996' estimated 50%
of the rural population of Antigua and Barbuda were living in absolute
poverty. [2]


ALPs Reckless Devastation:


Now, there is a contemporary study in reference to poverty, adverse
criticism blame the UPP, instead of ALPs reckless devastation .Also
there was no tangible support for updating the minimum wage ,
unaltered since the last minimum wage review in 1981.


Whereas the rate of inflation was moving rapidly from 1.1 in 1999, 1.8
in 2000, 2.8 in 2003.


The Kairi poverty report specifically highlight indigence expenditure
unable to meet minimum nutrition requirement: 13.7 percent of the
population was estimated as indigent:


"[The] population lacked the wherewithal to meet the level of
expectation that would be necessary to afford the minimum nutrition
required to maintain good bodily health"


Even before the Kairi report, particular evidence suggest Antigua and
Barbuda Dietary Energy Supply (DES) was lacking in micronutrient and
this contributed to circulatory disease, a major fatality factor in
Antigua and Barbuda.


According to the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Nutrition
Country Profiles August 2003. [3]


From 1984 - 1994 and 1998-2000 carbohydrates increased,protein
decreased and fat marginally decreased since household income were
unable to meet their micro-nutrient needs.


ALP did not grasp history, a sense of the common good and good
governance was absent. Therefore a better future for the next
generation was never a priority.


Instead the economy was in a tailspin, and according to a
UNDP report (1999-2001) multilateral borrowing was cut off, due to
Antigua and Barbuda zero-rating and significant deterioration of
public finance. [4]


Additionaly, USAID-funded report exposed ALPs bad management an
environmental degradation for economic inducement! [5]


Corresponding with an indepth study: COUNTRY EXPERIENCE IN LAND
ISSUES : Antigua & Barbuda by Dr. Allan N. Williams [6]


The study highlights the failure of the former ALP administration,
their lack of foresight in planning the countrys development with
emphasis on infrastructure and food security.


From 1983 to 2001 relevant to our GDP every sector of the economy
suffered: Agriculture declined from 6.1% to 3.%, manufacturing 4.9% to
2.3% and services 79.6% to 74.9


An earlier reflection from 1981-2000 revealed the forthcoming
predicament: Agriculture declined from 6.8% to 3.9%, manufacturing
5.0% to 2.3%, with the exception of services tiny increase from 74.8%
to 75.8%, even though a decrease was evident between 2000-2001


Further debt to GDP ratio was a severe pressure on the economy and
people generally: 99.2 (1999), 109.2 (2000), 110.2 (2001), 122.3
(2002)


Tim Hector Analysis:


Also Tim Hector's article 'The Economic Laws of Corruption' in Outlet
April 06, 2001 corroborate that fact; and laid bare ALP's
mismanagement. [7]


"The government cannot meet its obligations for wages and
salries,without borrowing.It cannot meet its lawful obligations for
Social Security and Medical Benefit payments; for 11,000 public
employees.It cannot meet its external obligations, like payment to the
CDB. It lost a $40 million loan for education from CDB because it
could not come up with just one million dollar EC. (EC$1m)"


Today, his analysis is now agonizing reality of ALPs failed economic
policy!


Review of Unemployment:


A review of unemployment document that proof, unemployment among
thirteen of Carifroum countries between 2000-2005; categorize Antigua
and Barbuda in the 8-14% group, along with the
Bahamas,Barbados,Belize,Grenada,Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago.


Antigua and Barbuda youth unemployment data 2003 was 3.3 compared to
the OECS ratio of 2.8; and Antigua and Barbuda average data 1993-2003
was the highest.


From since the 1991 census, Antigua and Barbuda there were 1784 youths
unemployed!


The socio-economic and poverty indicators of ALPs macro-economic
vulnerability was obvious. Therfore a macro policy integrating social
dimensions was now necessary to promote sustainable growth.


So, poverty and unemployment was on the margin of a dilemma, and
qucikly accelerated in 2004; a reflection of past Human Development
Index (HDI) were fear inspiring factors of that deteroriation.


While the HDI measures overall progress in achieving development, the
Human Poverty Index (HPI) reflects the distribution of progress and
measures the backlog of deprivation that still exist.


In Antigua and Barbuda the economic deprivation was obvious, and was
exposed in a report titled: Inequality and Poverty in the Caribbean
21-22 November 2002.


Another report, preeceding the Kairi Poverty Report, was the 2000 OECS
Human Development Report.


Antigua and Barbuda Inequality and Poverty:


The OECS Report suggest a critical failure in social development among
OECS countries, Antigua and Barbuda ranked fifth on the Education
Index (0.815); and the report further surmise "[Economic] gain was not
being translated into social development ones"


Perhaps ALPs expenditure on education, only 2.6% of Antigua and
Barbuda GDP; as total government expenditure moved from 13.5% in 1990
to 8.3% in 1996 escalate the crisis!


It was evident that Antigua was facing economic difficulty, and
inequality was growing, compared to other OECS countries GDP relative
to inequality of income distribution:


'[Antigua] has the second highest ranking in terms of GDP per capita,
but would appear to have the second highest level of inequality"


It collaborates the view in the Kairi Report, the GINI coefficient of
0.48 represent a higher level of inequality than most.


According to the report Antigua income dsitribution as indicated by
the GINI coefficient, exhibits higher level of income inequality,
preferably caused by the former government inconsistent taxation,
while keeping the minimum wage marginal.


Thje GINI coefficient level is somewhat consistent, though the Human
Development Report 2000 the GINI coefficient is somewhat higher 0.53


The Rising Cost of Food and the Oil Crisis:


Undoubtedly there is a global crisis from oil to food, and food prices
are consistently high all over. For ALP to argue an exagegerate that
reality is infact a smokescreen and disingenous.


In reality figures from the [U.S.] Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics
and National Grocers Association unmask the opposition misleading
electioneering trick with genuine figures.


The cost of groceries, has conspiciously advanced in the last year-
higher than the inflation rate-with dairy products soaring , the
caption Daily Reflector: Food prices take a bigger bite out of family
budget, March 23, 2008. [8]


Even the World Food Programme (WFP) budget estimate to feed 73 million
in 78 countries increased by more than half a billion dollars more
than last year!


Agreeing with Mark Thirlwell writing in the Financial Times February
26 2008, that countries heavily dependent on food import are most
vulnerable:


"While the share of food in the consumption basket of a rich country
such as the US is relatively low, at about 10 percent, it averages
about 30 percent in China and more than 60 perecnt in sub-Sahara
Africa"


According to the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat for May delivery
rose 90 cents to $12.15 a bushel; and by June the USDA projects wheat
inventories will fall by 40 percent, the lowest level since 1948!


In the U.S.A. food prices increase at the fastest rate since 1990, as
the example of selected staples for January of each year relate:


Flour (All Purpose/per lb)


2006 - 0.33


2007 - 0.34


2008 - 0.42


White Bread (per lb)


2006 - 1.05


2008 - 1.28


Ground Beef ( per lb)


2006 - 2.28


2007 - 1.03


2008 - 2.33


Whole Chicken (per lb)


2006 - 1.06


2007 - 1.03


2008 - 1.16


Whole Milk (per gal)


2006 - 3.20


2007 - 3.07


2008 - 3.87


Eggs (per doz)


2006 - 1.45


2008 - 2.18


Red Apples (per lb)


2006 - 0.96


2008 - 1.16


Average US price in the month of January


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)


Additionally the Commodity Prices for February Future prices at the
Chicago Board of Trade ($/Bushel)


Corn


2006 - 2.28


2007 - 4.25


2008 - 5.46


Soyabean


2006 - 5.72


2007 - 7.61


Wheat


2006 - 3.48


2007 - 4.35


2008 - 11.21


Source DTN


Prices will continuoulsy increase,an upsurge in cost will definitely
create further distress for consumers worldwide. Consumers at least
have 10 years of more expensive food according to FAO projections!


There are food riots in many countries as the struggle to survive
continues!


Political aspirants should research information before feeding the
public adverse diet of ignorance,propaganda and false hope for the
future!


The Future


ALPs future is again their past demise, former PM Lester Bird left the
economy in disrepair,rebellious social discord was the order of the
day,denial of basic rights, the ruling out of equitable land ownership
unless officially sanctioned, is the conclusive legacy of Birdism
economic plunder! Never again!


The people have already set themeselves free from that legacy of
cooperation ,obedience ,terror and draconian policy that enslaved them
for many decades! In unison we shout never again to the unwanted past,
focus on oppurtunities and not handout!


Today, people can be part of the new political order to continue their
destiny, under a democratic UPP government, but should be vigilant and
critical of government policies that affect the countrys development!
Forward ever, backward never, aluta continua!


Reference:


[1] http://freedomhouse.org/uploads/fiw/country/2.pdf


[2] www.bvsde.paho.org/muwww/fulltext/pias/antibarb/antibarb.html


[3] ftp://ftp.fao.org/es/esn/nutrition/ncp/antmap.pdf


[4] http://www.undp.org/execbrd/html/antccf.html


[5] http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/123456789/24379


[6] http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNADC119.pdf


[7] http://www.candw.ag/~jardinea/fanflame.htm


[8] http://www.dtn.com/news.cfm?sidenav=sn_innews&content=08news/mar