A Review of Lester Bird New Years Address 2008
Kwame Nkosi Romeo
'Never before have so few deceived so many'
Uruguyan writer Eduardo Galeano
The Antigua Labour Party (ALP) political leader; and former PM Lester Bird New Year's address condemning the United Progressive Party (UPP) government of PM Baldwin Spencer suggest the opposition priorities are off target.
The opposition lacks suitable supporting initiative, forward-looking organization solutions; and ALP campaign revolve on benefactors support dominant in the New Year's broadcast.
Lester Bird accused the UPP administration of the country's economic difficulty, crime and sky-rocketing food prices. And that accusation was contemptible and despicable politics, an opposition characteristic in fault-finding, purposely excluding the genesis of Antigua and Barbuda fiscal instability.
Additionally Lester Bird's intent to sever his association from earlier indiscretion cannot be overlooked, because he was in charge of the economy prior to March 23, 2004; and his modus operandi was absolutely autocratic.
Throughout his speech there was no solidarity of harmony, but inducement of deceit,nepotism and illusive assertion!
Also Lester Bird's message ignored food security and global warming, two major factors confronting the region! So what was missing from Lester Bird's New Year's electioneering declaration? A sense of sincerity and honorable reasoning, a more thoughtful approach and intelligence assessment.
The ALP ought to give Antigua and Barbuda a more heartfelt New Years message; and not publicize the old political trickery from the anniversary "Renewal" speech to a manifesto of indigenous empowerment!
A review of former PM Lester Bird New Year's message of deception and calculated distortion is necessary:
Spiraling Consumer Prices:
Even the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) recently announced the lowest global food resource in 25 years threatening a serious food crisis in more than 37 countries.
"[When] price of food was low, 850-million people went hungry because they could not afford to buy it"
Also the global cost of imported foodstuff in 2007 was 40% higher than 2006;and consumers in the US, the world's largest agriculture producer saw rising US food inflation now a 25-year high.
In consequence Bill Lapp, a consultant to the food and agriculture industries, president of Advanced Economic Solutions assert cumulative increase will continue:
"The world is not going back to the long-term averages $2.40 a bushel corn, $3.50 wheat or $5.50 soybean"
From 2008-2012 Lapp is estimating that Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) [1] corn prices will average $4 a bushel,wheat $6.50 a bushel and soybean $10 a bushel. Correspondingly, the World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) - 'World Agriculture Supply and Demand ' December 11, 2007 estimates and Lapp assessment agree for 2007/2008:
Farm prices is raised 30 cents on each end of the range to $6.30 to $6.60 per bushel for wheat, soybean price at $9.25 to $10.25 per bushel up 75 cents; and farm price for corn is projected at $3.35 to $3.95 per bushel, up 15 cents on both ends of the range.
Likewise Caribbean policy makers are now responsive to implement initiative and increase regional food production, It is suggested that if bio-fuels growth is not reversed, the humanitarian impact will be widespread and multiplication of dilemma will be sorrow!
Economy
The IMF team said that years of fiscal mismanagement have built up a huge public debt estimated at US$1.1 billion or about 135% of the islands gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2003. So, it was entirely inappropriate and partisan for former PM Lester Bird to blame the UPP without accepting responsibility.
Many were critical of the UPP for pushing an impossible agenda of reducing Debt to GDP to 80% by 2007
since it moved from 130% in 2003 to 108% in 2004 ,105% in 2005 , 109% in 2006, 110% in 2007.
Although it was an ambitious undertaking it was impossible to realize 80% Debt to GDP in 2007; and to accelerate further was questionable. And that was unreasonable according to USAID Report Jan 13, 2006 'Strengths and Weakness Analysis of International Trade Competitiveness' [2]
The report was an indictment of ALPs policy and the 'Titanic' debt left by the former administration of Lester Bird: ( see pg 29 of 35) but also cautioned the UPP administration:
"Returning to a manageable Debt to GDP ratio of 60 percent would require a 'fiscal adjustment' of over 22 percent of GDP i.e. there would have to be some combination of an increase in taxation or reduction in expenditure of 22% of GDP, an impossible amount to achieve without the most draconian measures"
The present taxes are extreme and should be revised, since an assessment of the tariff cut relate to a 25% tariff reduction, the lowest effort represents 2% of GDP; and 50% represents 6% of GDP.
What percentage of tariff cut was instituted is not yet known; but whatever the circumstances, the predicament of the economy and the stabilization tax policy of government, there probably needs to be compromise on the issue, even to reduce the ABST from 15% to 10%.
Poverty
In 2002, Antigua and Barbuda poverty was much lower as documented in a World Bank Report #24159-LAC May 15. 2002, conforming with an earlier Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) estimate in 1994.
"{With} the exception of Antigua which has a relative low poverty head count of around 12 percent.."
A subsequent study by Kairi Consultant in 2005/2006 recorded 18.4% of Antigua and Barbuda population living below the poverty line, while indigence was estimated at 5%.
To be fair to the UPP , after an in-depth analysis and a year after the election,was it fair to condemn the UPP for rising poverty?
Since Antigua and Barbuda youth unemployment data 2003 was 3.3 compared to the OECS ratio of 2.8 ; and Antigua and Barbuda average data 1993 to 2003 was the highest in the OECS, similarly to Dominica.
And youth unemployment in the OECS revealed the approaching crisis and menacing consequences of inaction: Antigua 13% with exception of St.Kitts 11% was the second lowest in the OECS, but still too close to the global rate:....." the OECS is 32 percent compared to a global rate of 14 percent in 2003" [3]
Therefore it is apparent that youth unemployment was rising prior to the UPPs advent in office; and the structural injustice of a social order that fan the flames of social exclusion; and climatic lingering process of crime escalation was on the verge of explosion.
Prior to the election in 2004 Lester Bird Words of Mass Distortion were in collision with social discord and public discourse.
The predicament of the economy under his leadership was disturbed by civil disobedience in every public sector for nonpayment of salaries to unsociable working environment; with pensioners disabled on crutches seeking justice but rendered powerless by absolute power.
As the sun fades and his career eclipse, Lester Bird one of Antigua and Barbuda first athlete to win a bronze medal at the Pan Am games in 1959; and one of Antigua great fast bowlers know that he is on his final run and last delivery. And he knows the political sunset of his career is beyond the boundary.
It will be difficult for him to assert his authority, if he is no longer commander of the team, but just an ordinary player on the field. His last encounter will decide if his career is over or he plays on, but it will only happen if he wins, otherwise there will be mutiny and he will be incapable to stop it!
Hail to the New Chief.
Kwame Nkosi Romeo
aka Bombshell